Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

255 
WWUS52 KGSP 280427
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1227 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017

NCC099-280436-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-170328T0500Z/
Jackson NC-
1227 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3524 8260 3517 8259 3515 8258 3495 8253
      3495 8297 3514 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 0426Z 265DEG 33KT 3505 8285 

$$

NCC175-SCC045-073-077-280500-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-170328T0500Z/
Transylvania NC-Greenville SC-Pickens SC-Oconee SC-
1227 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN TRANSYLVANIA...NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE...NORTHERN
PICKENS AND NORTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES...

At 1226 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 14 miles northwest
of Pickens, or 5 miles east of Gorges State Park, moving east at 40
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and minor damage to roofs and 
         siding. 

Locations impacted include...
Rosman, Lake Toxaway, Jocassee Gorges, Lake Jocassee, Dupont State
Forest, Devils Fork State Park, Gorges State Park, Table Rock State
Park, Caesars Head State Park and Pumpkintown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3524 8260 3517 8259 3515 8258 3495 8253
      3495 8297 3514 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 0426Z 265DEG 33KT 3505 8285 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KRENTZ

978 
WWUS52 KGSP 280454
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1254 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017

NCC175-SCC045-073-077-280504-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-170328T0500Z/
Transylvania NC-Greenville SC-Pickens SC-Oconee SC-
1254 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN TRANSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE...NORTHERN PICKENS AND NORTHEASTERN OCONEE
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 100 AM EDT...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened and 
moved out of the warned area. Therefore the warning will be allowed 
to expire.

LAT...LON 3524 8260 3517 8259 3515 8258 3495 8253
      3495 8297 3514 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 0454Z 265DEG 33KT 3507 8261 

$$

KRENTZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1035 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist southerly flow will linger over the southeast through Tuesday,
with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible. Drier air
will briefly return by the middle of the week as a cold front
settles south of the area. Rain chances return to end the week as a
low pressure system approaches from the west and interacts with the
stalled front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1020 PM, convective band continues to weaken across north GA
and far western NC. However, a couple of stronger cells have popped
up along the leading edge of the band across the southern NC mtns.
The main threats going forward will most likely be heavy rain, small
hail and gusty winds. Would not completely rule out a brief isolated
severe storm or two tonight, but it appears that the threat of
organized severe weather is waning. Another QLCS that has developed
behind the initial band is approaching Chattanooga at the present
time. Based upon the latest SPC mesoanalysis, this feature may be
elevated in nature, and indeed is not producing much of a response
in wind observations as it passes regional METAR sites. On its
current trajectory, it would reach our northeast GA zones circa 06Z.
Again, it doesn't appear this is going to pose much of a severe
weather threat, as the initial convective band continues to
stabilize the surface layer. Lows Tue morning will be around 15
degrees above normal.

The upper trough swings across the area Tuesday but the surface cold
front moves more slowly. Convective coverage overall will be greater
in the morning as that's when the deepest moisture and forcing will
be over the area. Coverage will be better along and east of the I-77
corridor during the afternoon. The best overlap of instability and
shear will be to our north and east Tuesday. However, there could be
enough overlap during the afternoon along and east of the I-77
corridor for an isolated severe storm. The air mass behind the front
is not very different, and with the slow movement, highs will be 10
to 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Monday: In the Short Term, an upper ridge will
cross the Eastern CONUS, while a deep upper low ejects out of the
Four Corners region into the Southern Plains. At the surface, a weak
cold front will slide east, as high pressure builds into the the
Great Lakes. Low-level CAA will be weak behind the front, so well
above normal temps are expected Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Conditions should be dry under partly cloudy skies.

Wednesday night and Thursday, as a vigorous low pressure system
tracks across the Plains, low-level flow will turn out of the south
atop the CWFA, with WAA and upglide supporting the development of
clouds and spotty light showers. With an ~1032 mb surface high
centered over central Quebec, hybrid cold air damming should set up
by daybreak Thursday. This will make for a tricky temp forecast, as
precip will be forced mainly by isentropic lift and weak southerly
upslope flow. So mainly drizzle and sprinkles with a few light
showers are expected. PoPs still ramp up to likely in the southwest
corner of the CWFA by the end of the day on Thursday. If the models
prove to be overdone on precip, temps may end up being a couple
categories warmer than the going forecast. Both the NAM and GFS show
elevated CAPE above the wedge in the upper Savannah Valley. So will
keep a chance of thunder mention thursday afternoon there. But
severe threat should remain well to the west closer to the
approaching cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Monday:  The medium range fcst period kicks off
on Thursday evening amidst a highly amplified upper pattern that
is highlighted by a ridge axis along the east coast, as well as
a closed and robust H5 cyclone embedded in a longwave trof atop
the Plains and MS Valley regions.  At the surface, the pattern
is just as complex thanks to an entrenched hybrid CAD centered
off the Jersey shore, while cyclogenesis dominates the field
across Dixie Alley, eastward into the Southern Appalachians by
way of an approaching zone of baroclinicity.  With that, the
cold front associated with said surface cyclone will be well to
west by fcst initialization, likely yet to cross the MS river,
however a warm front will have laid out across the I75 corridor
region in GA.  Moisture advection tied to this pattern still looks
as if it will lift isentropically atop the wedge airmass leading
to increasing chances for stratiform precipitation into the early
overnight hours.  At that point the fcst becomes quite interesting
given the approaching upper wave to provide synoptic scale lift,
as well as cooling the mid levels and thus increasing lapse rates.
Meanwhile, the CAD will begin to retreat to the east leading to
intrusion of the warm front, and thus providing focus for llv srh
enhancement given remnant backed surface flow.  Eventually the
flow will veer leading to straightening of hodographs, at least in
the 0-1km layer, however improved mid level lapse rates will yield
increasing instability while the primary shortwave passes overhead.
Given the fcst range these details are still a bit uncertain,
yet it still looks as if the pattern could be rather convectively
active Friday morning/afternoon before the cold front sweeps in
Friday evening.

Moving on, remnant northwest flow showers are progged behind the
fropa on Saturday while the remainder of the fcst area tends to dry
out as deep layer ridging builds in for Sunday. This deep ridging
looks dominant through Monday as well, however with sly flow to be
reestablished as the surface ridge shifts over the western Atlantic.
Meanwhile another deep upper system will be building across the
Plains, before sharply ejecting northeast into the OH/TN valleys
toward periods end, which will lead to another round of wet weather
across northeast GA and the western Carolinas into midweek.

As for the fcst itself, pops will ramp up sharply on Thursday night,
holding at widespread high chance to likely levels through much of
the day Friday.  Said pops will taper into the overnight of Saturday
morning given the fropa, thus no mentionable pops are featured by
12z regionwide with the exception of the TN line upslope regions.
By midday Saturday, those pops are removed leading to dry conditions
through Sunday and into Monday when pops increase slowly from
the west as the next system ejects from the southern Plains.
Temperatures through the period will be a bit variable, however
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere, the main concern for this forecast cycle will
be the fate of the band of showers and embedded thunderstorms
currently moving across the TN Valley and approaching the southern
Appalachians. Sufficient instability and lift should support this
activity into at least the western TAF sites, and tempos for TSRA
have been included at all sites except KCLT from late evening into
the early part of the overnight. As far as KCLT, anticipate a tempo
being needed at some point, but there's still too much uncertainty
surrounding timing, but also regarding in what state the convection
will be in by the time it arrives in the Piedmont. (The intensity of
the convection is already trending down, and we have several hours
of cooling before it would arrive in the Piedmont). Therefore, have
opted to only mention a VCSH at KCLT for now. Otherwise, statistical
guidance is in general very pessimistic regarding visby and esp cigs
toward daybreak. We are highly skeptical of this, as the statistical
guidance is often much too pessimistic with nocturnal cigs in warm
sector regimes. (Although areas that receive heavy rainfall from any
convection would be susceptible to seeing fog and/or low stratus
developing toward daybreak.) All things considered, opted to back
away from the IFR mention and maintain MVFR conditions during the
morning hours.

Convection chances are expected to dwindle by daybreak. Cigs should
improve during the afternoon, although additional convection could
develop as a cold front pushes slowly across the area. Most
terminals should see W/SW winds develop by the end of the period
(except NW at KAVL).

Outlook: Drier conditions should briefly return during mid-week
before another storm system begins affecting the region Thursday and
Friday.

Confidence Table...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  94%     Med   77%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     Med   73%     High  95%     High 100%
KAVL       Med   79%     High  95%     High  91%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High  82%     High  93%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     Med   75%     Med   77%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     Med   78%     High  87%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...JDL/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...JDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1043 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-509-510-
SCZ001>007-010>012-019-290245-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Madison-Swain-Haywood-
Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Greenwood-
1043 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A couple of bands of showers with embedded thunderstorms will move
across the area overnight. A brief severe thunderstorm or two
producing hail to the size of quarters cannot be ruled out, mainly in
areas west of I-26. However, the main threats will be from
occasional cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and
locally heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-068>072-082-501>508-SCZ008-009-013-
014-290245-
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Yancey-Mitchell-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Cherokee-York-Chester-
1043 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the Piedmont
overnight. The main threats will be from occasional cloud to ground
lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Lane

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
839 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

SCZ011-019-280115-
Abbeville SC-Greenwood SC-
839 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ABBEVILLE AND
NORTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

At 839 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles north of Abbeville, or 4 miles south of Due West, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Abbeville, Ware Shoals, Due West, Donalds, Cokesbury, Hodges and
Shoals Junction.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3429 8253 3446 8231 3445 8228 3444 8228
      3443 8226 3442 8226 3438 8221 3437 8218
      3433 8217 3433 8215 3432 8214 3431 8212
      3431 8211 3430 8210 3417 8244
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 235DEG 29KT 3427 8241

CDG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1011 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

NCZ062-280245-
Macon NC-
1011 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MACON COUNTY UNTIL 1045 PM
EDT...

At 1010 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles northeast of Hiawassee, or 9 miles southeast of Nantahala Lake,
moving east at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Franklin, Highlands, Ellijay, Scaly Mountain, Otto, Rainbow Springs,
Cullasaja and Wayah Bald.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Dime size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles. Consider
moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm arrives.

&&

LAT...LON 3528 8331 3527 8332 3524 8329 3523 8327
      3504 8318 3499 8342 3499 8348 3500 8351
      3500 8352 3502 8352 3504 8356 3507 8357
      3511 8362 3513 8362 3512 8364 3514 8364
      3514 8365
TIME...MOT...LOC 0210Z 249DEG 24KT 3507 8358

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1031 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     HAIL             RAINBOW SPRINGS         35.09N 83.56W
03/27/2017  E0.75 INCH       MACON              NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED PENNY SIZE HAIL AT 4000 FT ELEVATION.

&&

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1133 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

NCZ062-280415-
Macon NC-
1133 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MACON COUNTY UNTIL
1215 AM EDT...

At 1133 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Franklin, or 5 miles northwest of Dillard, moving east
at 50 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Highlands, Sky Valley, Scaly Mountain and Otto.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 3516 8322 3508 8316 3507 8317 3506 8317
      3506 8315 3504 8313 3502 8313 3500 8311
      3499 8345 3500 8347 3502 8347 3504 8351
      3508 8353
TIME...MOT...LOC 0333Z 254DEG 41KT 3504 8344

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1145 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

GAZ010-017-SCZ001-280430-
Rabun GA-Habersham GA-Oconee Mountains SC-
1145 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN HABERSHAM...RABUN AND
NORTHWESTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM EDT...

At 1145 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Clayton, or 5 miles southeast of Sky Valley, moving
east at 110 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Walhalla, Clayton, Mountain City, Tiger, Dillard, Sky Valley,
Tallulah Falls, MOCCASIN CREEK STATE PARK, Lake Burton and Moccasin
Creek State Park.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 3482 8365 3484 8366 3488 8366 3491 8363
      3492 8360 3494 8360 3495 8355 3499 8355
      3500 8311 3502 8305 3476 8305 3464 8364
      3467 8365 3471 8364 3473 8362 3476 8363
      3480 8368
TIME...MOT...LOC 0345Z 265DEG 94KT 3491 8328

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1158 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

GAZ010-NCZ062>064-SCZ001-002-280430-
Rabun GA-Transylvania NC-Southern Jackson NC-Macon NC-
Pickens Mountains SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
1158 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN RABUN...
SOUTHEASTERN MACON...SOUTHWESTERN TRANSYLVANIA...SOUTHEASTERN
JACKSON...NORTHWESTERN PICKENS AND NORTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL
1230 AM EDT...

At 1158 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles southeast of Franklin, or 4 miles southeast of Highlands,
moving east at 55 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Highlands, Cashiers, Lake Toxaway, Jocassee Gorges, Lake Jocassee,
Devils Fork State Park, Gorges State Park, Bad Creek, Pine Mountain
and Whiteside Mountain.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 8322 3507 8326 3517 8285 3495 8278
TIME...MOT...LOC 0358Z 265DEG 49KT 3503 8313

KRENTZ