Severe Thunderstorm Warning 269, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
745 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Numerous rounds of showers and potentially severe thunderstorms are
expected this evening as the remnants of Harvey move into the Ohio
Valley and a front persists across western North Carolina. Warmer
and drier high pressure behind Harvey will result in a return to
near normal temperatures by early next week. A cold front will
approach from the west by the middle of next week, increasing rain
chances once again.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT: Storms have undergone a rapid redevelopment early
this evening as a boundary strengthened and dropped south across the
NC Foothills and Piedmont. The storms should weaken through the
evening, but will hold onto the watch until the weakening trend
takes hold. The entire area of storms should move east with the cold
front late this evening.

An upper level jet with strengthen over or just east of the
Appalachians on Saturday as a trough lingers west of the mountain
chain, but profiles will be drier and westerly flow will provide
downsloping east of the mountains. Any deeper moisture for lingering
showers through Saturday will affect mainly the TN border counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 2:30 PM EDT Friday:  We still have a rather sharp H5/H7 trough
to move across the area Saturday night. A batch of clouds will cross
the northern sections of our forecast area (FA), with a few showers
in the mountains. Those will wane during the overnight. Elsewhere,
quiet weather will be the rule Saturday night, and clouds in our NC
western piedmont counties will be exiting east.

Otherwise, we remain under a broad cyclonic flow aloft right into
Labor Day, but it will be easing. At the surface a bubble of high
pressure will edge into the region Sunday with dry conditions.

The high will move east on Labor Day but will still control our
weather regime for the Holiday. Weak surface troughing tries to
develop in the mountains, but overall dry conditions will prevail.

Temperatures late in the weekend, and into Labor Day, will edge up a
degree or two.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1200 PM EDT Friday: Early AFD today because of the threat of
svr wx this PM. Anyways...the medium range picks up with a
relatively quiet day on Tuesday with a wedge of dry air still in
place over the forecast area. Rapid moistening and height falls will
occur Tuesday night and Wednesday as an upper level trough dives
towards the southeast CONUS and a surface frontal boundary lines up
across the OH River Valley/southern Appalachians. An increase in QPF
response is expected through the day on Wednesday and into the
evening as the front moves southeastward through the forecast area.
Rainfall totals do not look particularly impressive at the moment,
though confidence is increasing in a widespread rain event across
much of the region. Drier air is allowed to work into the forecast
area by Thursday afternoon as the trough axis passes through the
Carolinas, and remains through the end of the medium range. A quick
note about Irma - confidence is increasing in model solutions that
show recurvature of the hurricane back out into the Atlantic,
greatly limiting impacts in our area. Considering it is hurricane
season, though, we encourage everyone to be prepared and remain
aware of the forecast.

Finally, temperatures will begin the period near to just above
average, decreasing to almost 10 degrees below average by the middle
of next week as cloud cover overspreads the area and upper heights
fall.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT: Boundary dropping south toward the airfield has turned the
wind to NE. This has also caused a rapid redevelopment of storms
nearby. Looks like TSRA will remain away from the airport, but shra
may still move through. This has also caused a development of MVFR
cigs. The MVFR cigs will linger through the evening with a downward
trend of IFR overnight. Vsby will also drop into the MVFR range and
could become IFR before daybreak. Guidance shows winds returning to
SE then S as a cold front moves in from the west. VSBY quickly
improves after daybreak but cigs only slowly rise and scatter out.
Gusty SW wind expected for the afternoon.

Elsewhere: KHKY will be similar KCLT, but with a better chance of
TSRA this evening and VSBY restrictions overnight. The NE winds
should remain north of the SC sites as should the restrictions.
Can't rule out a low VFR cig from time to time overnight. Gusty SW
wind expected Saturday afternoon. KAVL may see some light showers
overnight, but also has a good chance of IFR cigs and vsby
overnight. SW winds turn NW and become gusty during the afternoon.

Outlook: Drier high pressure will settle overhead late this weekend
into early next week. Another cold front will approach from the
northwest next Tuesday into Wednesday.

Confidence Table...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  90%     Low   53%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     Low   55%     Med   70%     High 100%
KHKY       Med   78%     Med   65%     Med   75%     High  94%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Carroll
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...Carroll
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
512 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>050-053-064-065-068-501>510-
SCZ001>008-010>013-019-022115-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Madison-Yancey-
Mitchell-Buncombe-Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-Anderson-
Abbeville-Laurens-Union-Greenwood-
512 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

An isolated thunderstorm is possible early this evening. Cloud to
ground lightning and brief gusty winds are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-069>072-082-SCZ009-014-022115-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-
Cabarrus-Union-York-Chester-
512 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

...TORNADO WATCH 477 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

There is also a lingering heavy rain threat, and isolated flash
flooding will be possible in any areas repeatedly affected by
thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

NCZ051-052-058-059-062-063-022115-
Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
512 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

An isolated thunderstorm is possible early this evening. Cloud to
ground lightning and brief gusty winds are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
558 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

NCZ036-037-056-057-069-071-012300-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-Iredell NC-Lincoln NC-Mecklenburg NC-Catawba NC-
558 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA...SOUTHEASTERN DAVIE...SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL...
EASTERN LINCOLN...NORTH CENTRAL MECKLENBURG AND WESTERN ROWAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 558 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms with
intense lightning along a line extending from 8 miles south of
Statesville to 10 miles northwest of Huntersville, and moving east at
20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Salisbury, Cornelius, Mooresville, Davidson, Landis, Westport,
Troutman, Cooleemee, Cleveland and Lake Norman.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph, pea size
hail and torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches per hour will be
possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors, try
to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away
from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When
indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired
electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug
unnecessary appliances before the storms approach.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for the Piedmont
of North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3589 8040 3588 8042 3586 8039 3584 8040
      3585 8042 3583 8043 3583 8046 3584 8047
      3583 8049 3581 8047 3579 8048 3577 8045
      3554 8061 3551 8078 3550 8079 3542 8111
      3570 8092 3592 8037 3589 8037
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 248DEG 17KT 3567 8089 3552 8099

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
646 PM EDT FRI SEP 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W STATESVILLE         35.78N 80.96W
09/01/2017                   IREDELL            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            2 OR 3 TREES DOWN NEAR LITTLE FARM ROAD.

0533 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W TROUTMAN            35.70N 80.91W
09/01/2017                   IREDELL            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ON WEST SIDE OF TROUTMAN.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
718 PM EDT FRI SEP 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S THERMAL CITY        35.45N 81.97W
09/01/2017                   RUTHERFORD         NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            A FEW TREES DOWN.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
731 PM EDT FRI SEP 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SE STATESVILLE        35.77N 80.86W
09/01/2017  E0.00 INCH       IREDELL            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            HEAVY RAIN LED TO WATER UP TO HOOD LEVEL DUE TO POOR
            DRAINAGE AT INTERSECTION OF SALISBURY ROAD AND GARNER
            BAGNAL BLVD.

&&

OUTLAW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
749 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

NCZ036-057-070>072-020015-
Rowan NC-Gaston NC-Iredell NC-Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-
749 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CABARRUS...
SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL...NORTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG...ROWAN AND
NORTHEASTERN GASTON COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

At 749 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Uptown Charlotte, or near Mt Holly, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Huntersville, Kannapolis, Downtown Concord, Salisbury, Northeast
Charlotte, Northwest Charlotte, West Concord, Cornelius, Mt Holly and
Davidson.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for the Piedmont
of North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3519 8100 3534 8112 3541 8103 3540 8096
      3547 8095 3579 8053 3578 8048 3573 8045
      3572 8041 3557 8022
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 235DEG 46KT 3532 8098

WJM

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