Severe Thunderstorm Warning 244, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

919 
WWUS52 KGSP 232135
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
535 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

SCC059-232145-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0244.000000T0000Z-170723T2145Z/
Laurens SC-
535 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL LAURENS COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

If you observed large hail or wind damage, please report it to the
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free,
1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet
it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and
the specific location where it occurred.

LAT...LON 3440 8193 3458 8181 3456 8175 3457 8174
      3455 8172 3456 8171 3456 8168 3453 8165
      3452 8165 3446 8170 3445 8172 3437 8178
      3435 8181 3434 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 297DEG 6KT 3444 8177 

$$

08

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
507 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will become stationary from west to east across our
region through the middle of the week then dissipate.  This should
result in a little cooler temperature and better chances for rain
over the next few days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 500 PM EDT Sunday: Line of strong/severe convection has moved
through most of our NC counties and is working its way into SE
zones. Atmosphere has stabilized behind the line, but still plenty
of CAPE (>2k J/kg) and dCAPE (>1k J/kg) ahead of the line, so
certainly not over yet. In addition, atmosphere is beginning to
recover over the mountains with sunshine peeking through again and
instability in E TN starting to nose east. HRRR and other CAMs still
bringing convection down from KY/TN into the northern mountains just
after midnight and have held onto this trend for a while. Have made
some minor adjustments to pops based on this but will continue to
monitor the forecast trends. Temps are all over the place with rain-
cooled air behind the convection, but have tried to trend obs into
the near-term forecast.

Otherwise, mountain valley fog, some dense, is expected again and
locations outside of the mountains that receive rainfall may see
some as well. Lows will again be above normal but not quite as warm
as last night.

Convection redevelops Monday as outflow boundaries from the
overnight MCS move across the area. Coverage will be better along
and south of the I-85 corridor where the timing of the boundary
movement will coincide with the higher instability. North of the
corridor instability will be much less leading to only isolated
coverage at best. DCAPE and sfc delta theta-E values while still on
the high side, will not be as high as Sunday. Instability will reach
moderate levels but just barely. Therefore, the chance of severe
storms will be less but not non-existent. Highs will be in the lower
90s outside of the mountain, and while still humid, heat index
values should remain below 100.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday: A weak and nearly stationary cold front
will remain over central GA and SC Monday night into Tuesday,
immediately south of the CWFA. Aloft, we will remain somewhat
under the influence of the northeast CONUS trough, though
without significant embedded vorticity in play early in the
period. More abundant moisture will be present over the south,
near the front, which could increase cloud cover. But otherwise it
appears conditions will be close to climatology, with seasonably
modest instability and weak shear producing a small pulse severe
threat. Partial thicknesses change little from Monday, so max
temps should be similar.

Tuesday night, high pressure will shift into New England in the
wake of the upper trough. A weak upper low is shown to cut off
and remain over the Carolina coast, and allows enough vorticity
to persist over the area that isolated t-storms still could fire
overnight across mainly the Piedmont. The eastward push of the high
will bring cooler air south into the area, which virtually all
guidance indicates will knock max temps down to a couple degrees
below normal, in conjunction with increased cloud cover. Nonetheless
consensus SBCAPE values remain fairly large given still-elevated
sfc dewpoints and good lapse rates afforded by the upper low. PoPs
peak above climo and pulse threats return once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Sunday: The medium range begins Wednesday evening with
a weak closed off 500mb low over the Carolinas and Georgia. As the
next northern stream shortwave crosses the Great Lakes on Thursday,
it kicks this weak low off to the east with the 500mb trough digging
over the East through the weekend. As the Great Lakes shortwave
moves to far eastern Canada, the associated cold front moves slowly
southeast. This front should be nearing the Ohio River early Friday.
As the front approaches from the north, frontal associated
convection will increase first across areas along and north of I-40
Friday afternoon and then spread across much of the rest of the area
Friday evening. The front becomes stationary west to east across our
region through the weekend. The eventual location of the axis of the
trough next weekend varies among the models. This axis location will
have significant influence on our weather. Also, mesoscale
convective systems are expected to develop near the Rockies or
northern Plains states and track southeast in the northwest 500mb
flow toward our region of the nation. Therefore, our weather will
remain unsettled through the weekend. Temperatures will be near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: No changes to the KCLT TAF for the 21z
AMD. Line of TSRA has moved through but with lingering CGs and some
SHRA still moving into the area, will leave the TEMPO as-is.
Otherwise, guidance not very favorable for restrictions outside of
the mountain valleys overnight, so have limited them to KAVL. That
said, they will be possible as most locations will receive rainfall.
Scattered convection expected Monday for all but KHKY. SW wind today
becomes light overnight, then W to SW for Monday.

Outlook: Increasing chances of convection expected through the
middle of next week ahead of a series of weakening cold fronts.
Overnight restrictions will continue in the mountain valleys with
chance increasing elsewhere.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  90%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RWH/TDP
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...RWH/TDP

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
557 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-241000-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
557 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop across
the area this afternoon into early evening. The air mass in place is
expected to become moderately to highly unstable. Therefore, many
of the storms may become severe, capable of producing damaging
wind gusts and large hail. This is in addition to the usual threat
of cloud- to-ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall. While
most of the activity will diminish after sunset, additional
thunderstorms may move into western North Carolina from Tennessee
and Virginia overnight, bringing a second round of thunderstorms
producing lightning and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
346 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0226 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE LAKE LURE         35.46N 82.16W
07/23/2017                   RUTHERFORD         NC   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN FROM LAKE LURE TO
            SHINGLE HOLLOW.

0238 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RUTHERFORDTON           35.36N 81.96W
07/23/2017                   RUTHERFORD         NC   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE ON A HOUSE.

&&

OUTLAW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
350 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

NCZ082-232015-
Union NC-
350 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM EDT...

At 350 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles east of Monroe, or near Marshville, moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Marshville and Sturdivants.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3484 8032 3486 8046 3509 8039 3507 8029
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 291DEG 12KT 3498 8035

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
411 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND GST     CONCORD                 35.41N 80.59W
07/23/2017  E60 MPH          CABARRUS           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS. NICKEL SIZED HAIL
            ALSO OBSERVED.

&&

TPALMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
411 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

NCZ057-071-072-232045-
Rowan NC-Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-
411 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CABARRUS...EAST CENTRAL
MECKLENBURG AND SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 411 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles east of Downtown Concord, or near Mt Pleasant, moving northeast
at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Downtown Concord, Kannapolis, West Concord, Harrisburg, Granite
Quarry, Rockwell, Mt Pleasant, Faith, Reedy Creek Park and Charlotte
Motor Speedway.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8030 3519 8051 3521 8055 3520 8056
      3527 8086 3572 8033 3568 8033 3563 8029
      3563 8027 3559 8021 3555 8021 3551 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 227DEG 30KT 3542 8050

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
416 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROCK HILL               34.94N 81.03W
07/23/2017                   YORK               SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN, ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS. 1/2 INCH HAIL ALSO
            REPORTED.

&&

TPALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
424 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE PINEVILLE         35.07N 80.85W
07/23/2017                   MECKLENBURG        NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREES DOWN AND PATIO FURNITURE BLOWN OVER.

&&

TPALMER