Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
235 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary will slowly dissipate over the next
few days as a strong upper ridge gradually builds into the region.
This will bring hot temperatures and a reduction in the coverage of
diurnal showers and thunderstorms through the end of the work week.
Temperatures will begin to moderate by the weekend while enhanced
thunderstorm chances return to the forecast early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 pm EDT: A closing upper-level low pressure system will
migrate slowly east across the piedmont and coastal plain of the
Carolinas tonight through Wednesday. Meanwhile, heights will
steadily recover from the west. A weak vorticity lobe is crossing
the mountains on the back side of the main trough late today and
this feature, along with weak upslope flow, is generating scattered
afternoon convection along and east of the Blue Ridge. Relatively
good surface DCAPEs and 25+ K surface to mid level theta e lapses
will provide decent gusts with any thunderstorms. After the
afternoon convection wanes, PoPs will diminish greatly later this
evening and overnight, with the main overnight issue likely being
low clouds and fog in the mountain river valleys. Low clouds east of
the mountains should be less widespread given the slightly drier
boundary layer.

On Wednesday, profiles exhibit less instability, lapse rates are
more modest, and triggering should be weaker. Scattered ridge top
coverage still seems likely as sbCAPE rebounds to 1500+ J/kg in many
areas. 850 mb flow will acquire a light downsloping component to
further limit PoPs east of the high terrain. Anticipate max temps
another 2 degrees above current day maxes, with Heat Index values
likely reaching the upper 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday:  The short term fcst period kicks off on
Wednesday evening amidst gradually building heights from the west
as a large upper anticyclone strengthens over the plains, while an
H5 depression/low slowly meanders along the Carolina coastline.
At the surface, high pressure anchored over the western Atlantic
will remain dominant, likely suppressing convection to some degree.
With that, the fcst will kick off to feature low end pops,
mainly along the high terrain where inhibition will be weakest.
Said pops will taper into the overnight leading into a dry fcst for
Thursday morning.  By that time the upper ridge will have shifted
over the MidSouth region with enough warming aloft to suppress
convection across much if not all of the fcst area for Thursday
therefore pops will remain below mentionable levels.

Meanwhile, the aforementioned H5 depression is progged to
retrograde westward along the SC/FL coastline, eventually moving
inland by Friday.  This feature looks to complicate fcst somewhat
as it pertains to excessive heat, especially on Friday when the
upper ridge weakens slightly as these two features interact.
As a result, fcst pops will be slightly higher on Friday as deep
subsidence is weaker across the mtns/fthills, however remaining dry
over the piedmont.  As for temperatures and heat indices, expecting
highs in the lower/mid 90s across the low terrain, with upper 80s in
the mtn valleys on Thursday.  Further warming is fcst on Friday when
maxes push into the mid/upper 90s for the low terrain, while lower
90s are favored in the mtn valleys.  Given very moist dewpoints
and minimal mixing, heat index values for Thursday and Friday will
be critical, with values approaching 100 and 105 respectively,
the highest of those indices to be observed along/south of I85.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday: Large shifts in the guidance with this
medium range package. Previous forecasts hinged on the expansion of
a strong upper level ridge into the southeast as an upper level
trough axis shifted eastward into the Atlantic. For the latest
cycles though, all major models are now showing the upper trough
over the east coast pinching off an upper level disturbance that
hangs over the southeast and migrates towards the Gulf coast through
the weekend. This will prevent major height rises over the weekend,
so temperatures were trimmed down a few degrees on Saturday and
Sunday, while pops were raised to come closer to climo. Upper level
troughing will return early next week, and with it more moderate
temperatures and a surface front that will provide a focus for some
enhanced diurnal convection, especially Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection has thus far has been confined to
the immediate Blue Ridge area this afternoon, but the convection
allowing models bring some of this activity east over the foothills
and into the piedmont through early evening. TSRA chances will be
best from KAVL to KHKY, but will continue to ride on TEMPO TSRA at
KCLT given the light northwest steering flow. Will maintain VCTS at
the Upstate sites. The mountain valleys will once again see the best
chance of low clouds and fog, but less difficulty is expected east
of the mountains where the boundary layer will be a bit drier. Will
keep the forecast dry through 18Z Wed with any isolated to scattered
mountain storms expected later in the day. Light winds will remain
mainly southerly, turning more westerly on Wed.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
are expected on Wednesday, with better coverage over the mountains.
Morning fog development can be expected in the mountain valleys and
in areas that receive rainfall the previous afternoon/evening. Drier
air will likely limit convective coverage for Thursday, with typical
mid-summer conditions returning by Saturday.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  94%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  97%     High  91%     High  94%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  97%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  91%     High  94%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Carroll
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...Carroll
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
651 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-191100-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
651 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop again
across the area this afternoon and evening. The main threats will be
from cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall. However,
a few storms could become briefly severe, with damaging winds being
the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
232 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

SCZ001-181900-
Oconee Mountains SC-
232 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN OCONEE COUNTY UNTIL 300
PM EDT...

At 232 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Walhalla, or 5 miles west of Oconee State Park,
moving south at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Walhalla, Westminster, Oconee State Park, Mountain Rest and Long
Creek.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3483 8329 3482 8327 3485 8327 3485 8325
      3488 8324 3488 8321 3489 8320 3492 8316
      3493 8316 3493 8314 3494 8313 3475 8299
      3460 8316 3460 8320 3461 8323 3464 8326
      3465 8328 3480 8331
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 339DEG 9KT 3484 8320

CDG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
313 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

NCZ053-505-506-181945-
Buncombe NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
313 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL AND EAST
CENTRAL BUNCOMBE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 312 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Marion, or near B.R. Parkway-Little Switzerland To
Linville, moving south at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Marion, Old Fort, Sugar Hill, Pleasant Gardens, Fero, Busick and
Glenwood.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3554 8198 3555 8200 3554 8203 3554 8207
      3553 8208 3554 8231 3570 8226 3573 8219
      3577 8217 3577 8202
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 001DEG 7KT 3570 8214

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
335 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

NCZ049-053-505-507-182000-
Buncombe NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Yancey NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-
335 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL...
SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE AND SOUTH CENTRAL YANCEY COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM
EDT...

At 334 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles east of Downtown Asheville, or near Black Mountain, moving
southwest at 5 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Black Mountain, Swannanoa, Fairview In Buncombe County, Old Fort,
Chimney Rock State Park, B.R. Parkway-Craggy To Little Switzerland,
Warren Wilson College, Bat Cave, Mount Mitchell State Park and East
Asheville.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3568 8207 3543 8225 3545 8228 3547 8227
      3550 8233 3549 8235 3559 8252 3577 8227
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 036DEG 6KT 3563 8228

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
400 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

NCZ053-065-505-182030-
Buncombe NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Henderson NC-
400 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL...
NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES UNTIL 430
PM EDT...

At 359 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Downtown Asheville, or near Black Mountain, moving west
at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Black Mountain, Swannanoa, Fairview In Buncombe County, B.R.
Parkway-East Asheville To Craggy Gardens, Warren Wilson College, B.R.
Parkway-Nc Arboretum To East Asheville, East Asheville, Montreat and
Gerton.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3553 8217 3552 8223 3551 8223 3550 8222
      3543 8245 3569 8252 3570 8222
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 077DEG 8KT 3560 8236

ARK