Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

177 
WWUS52 KGSP 151921
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
321 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

NCC111-161-151945-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0192.000000T0000Z-170715T1945Z/
McDowell NC-Rutherford NC-
321 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN MCDOWELL AND NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTIES...

At 320 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles northwest
of Rutherfordton, or 10 miles southeast of Old Fort, moving southeast
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Old Fort, Shingle Hollow, Sugar Hill, Thermal City, Pleasant Gardens,
Glenwood, Fero, Dysartsville, Union Mills and Marion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3562 8184 3558 8182 3558 8180 3559 8180
      3559 8178 3541 8192 3552 8220 3553 8217
      3556 8223 3572 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 298DEG 10KT 3552 8205 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CARROLL

095 
WWUS52 KGSP 151937
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
337 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

NCC111-161-151947-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0192.000000T0000Z-170715T1945Z/
McDowell NC-Rutherford NC-
337 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN MCDOWELL AND
NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 345 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3562 8184 3558 8182 3558 8180 3559 8180
      3559 8178 3541 8192 3552 8220 3553 8217
      3556 8223 3572 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 298DEG 10KT 3550 8200 

$$

CARROLL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
213 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will persist through the weekend, with
scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day.
A cold front will move into the region from the northwest and stall
near the area through Sunday. Another cold front will approach on
Monday and move southeast of the area on Tuesday, with drier and
warmer conditions arriving by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday: The weak cold front has generally moved
south of the area, as evidenced by WNW winds across most of the
Piedmont, but moisture associated with the upper trough will
continue to move across the area with high PW values near 2" and a
potent little vort max swinging through. Deep layer shear isn't
impressive, and while we do have some steering flow, convective
development continues  upstream of current convection, leading to
training storms and a heavy rain threat (with associated Slight Risk
of Excessive Rain from WPC). We remain in Marginal Risk for the SPC
outlook with a low-end wind and hail threat (with slightly improved
lapse rates aloft and some area for hail growth). Despite the
proximity of the front, dCAPEs are actually fairly low, generally
<700J/kg across the area, so storms might not be able to get as
intense as quickly as they did yesterday...which also leads one to
believe this might evolve into more of a heavy rain threat. Basin-
average QPFs are not that all impressive so flash flooding would be
localized, so do not really feel a Flash Flood Watch is warranted.

Convection should wane overnight, but should pick up at least across
southern zones on Sunday. Some of the hires models want to develop
some showery activity across the northern tier as well so have kept
pops a little higher, but these may need to be pulled back down with
later forecasts. Temperatures will be improving through the period,
with highs today near seasonal normals, lows tonight just slightly
above and highs tomorrow actually a couple of degrees below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday: A shortwave embedded in upper longwave
troughing will cross the area Sunday night as a surface front
settles over the forecast area. The front will wash out on Monday as
heights aloft fall and another potent shortwave rounds the trough
base, so widespread showers and thunderstorms are anticipated once
again on Monday. Another front will descend from the northwest on
Monday night and will stall near the forecast area Tuesday,
providing a focus for enhanced diurnal convection in the afternoon.
Mid-level dry air makes an entrance Monday and Tuesday, and with
respectable instability both days, some type of wet microburst
threat is possible. Temperatures will be near climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Saturday: The medium range begins Tuesday night
immediately post-frontal passage with a few lingering showers and
thunderstorms. Upper troughing lifts by Wednesday, though there is
some model disagreement in just how far the front is able to
progress as it washes out on Wednesday. Strong upper ridging builds
over the central Plains on Wednesday to exert some influence on the
southeast, though, so maximum temperatures were increased and
"silent 10" pops remain. The extent to which drier air will be able
to work in as the ridge continues to build Thursday and Friday is
also uncertain, but enough moisture lingers in the global model
solutions that slight chance pops were maintained both afternoons. A
back door front dips down from the northeast as upper heights fall
again on Saturday, bringing pops close to climo back into the
forecast. Maximum and minimum temperatures during the middle and end
of next week will be above climo through the period, though the
extent is uncertain due to model inconsistencies in handling the
sprawling high over the central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Convection developing and becoming more
widespread across the area, though still fairly sparse across most
of the Piedmont. Have started all TAFs but KAND with VCTS (KAND at
19z) but with TEMPO TSRA and VRB gusty winds. As the front sags
south, convection should diminish 00-03z or so. Expect another round
of restrictions, probably LIFR, at KAVL, and have brough in some VFR
fog at KHKY, but would not be surprised if other TAFs have morning
fog restrictions as well. With the front stalling across southern
areas, should see an increase in convection again Sunday late
morning, and have introduced PROB30s to account for this. Winds
starting out W to WNW at TAF time, should veer around clockwise to
N/NE/ENE through the end of the period.

Outlook: Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms
are expected through Monday across the area, with higher coverage in
the mountains. Morning fog development can be expected in the
mountain valleys and in areas that receive rainfall the previous
afternoon/evening.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  97%     Med   71%     High  85%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Carroll
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...Carroll
LONG TERM...Carroll
AVIATION...TDP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
507 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-160915-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
507 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop over the
area this afternoon and evening. A few of the storms are expected to
become briefly severe, with damaging downburst winds being the main
threat, although hail to the size of quarters could also occur.
Locally heavy rainfall and frequent cloud to ground lightning can
occur with any thunderstorm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
228 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

SCZ003-006>008-151900-
Cherokee SC-Greenville Mountains SC-Spartanburg SC-
Greater Greenville SC-
228 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...
NORTHERN SPARTANBURG AND WEST CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM
EDT...

At 228 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northwest of Spartanburg, or over Boiling Springs SC, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Spartanburg, Boiling Springs SC, Landrum, Cowpens, Wellford, Inman,
Mayo, Campobello, Lake Bowen and USC Upstate.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3505 8234 3520 8221 3519 8214 3508 8173
      3485 8189
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 298DEG 13KT 3503 8197

CARROLL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
231 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

NCZ057-072-151900-
Rowan NC-Cabarrus NC-
231 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CABARRUS AND
SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

At 230 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southeast of Salisbury, or 5 miles east of Rockwell, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Rockwell, Gold Hill, High Rock and High Rock Lake.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph, dime size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8029 3544 8034 3550 8044 3566 8033
      3562 8025 3558 8021 3555 8021 3554 8020
      3553 8020 3551 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 298DEG 13KT 3555 8031

CARROLL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
240 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

NCZ063-064-SCZ002-003-151930-
Transylvania NC-Southern Jackson NC-Pickens Mountains SC-
Greenville Mountains SC-
240 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN TRANSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE AND NORTHWESTERN
PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 239 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southwest of Brevard, or near Lake Toxaway, moving southeast at
10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Rosman, Lake Toxaway, Jocassee Gorges, Gorges State Park, Lake
Jocassee, Table Rock State Park, Rocky Bottom, Sunset, Sapphire and
Sassafras Mountain.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3524 8297 3514 8264 3490 8280 3499 8294
      3501 8293 3501 8291 3502 8292 3503 8292
      3505 8290 3503 8300 3508 8307
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 292DEG 7KT 3513 8292

CARROLL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
243 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

NCZ068-508-SCZ008-151915-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-Cherokee SC-
243 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...
SOUTHWESTERN CLEVELAND AND NORTH CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 315
PM EDT...

At 243 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southeast of Forest City, or 4 miles southwest of Ellenboro,
moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Forest City, Shelby, Boiling Springs NC, Ellenboro, Lattimore,
Mooresboro, Bostic, Kingstown, Cliffside and Henrietta.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, dime size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3534 8153 3509 8164 3525 8197 3539 8185
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 289DEG 11KT 3529 8181

CARROLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
244 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE ROCKWELL           35.58N 80.36W
07/15/2017                   ROWAN              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN.

&&

TPALMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
248 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

NCZ504>506-508-151915-
Greater Rutherford NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Greater Burke NC-
Eastern McDowell NC-
248 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN MCDOWELL...NORTH
CENTRAL RUTHERFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM
EDT...

At 247 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southwest of Marion, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Marion, Old Fort, Sugar Hill, Thermal City, Pleasant Gardens,
Glenwood, Fero, Dysartsville and Union Mills.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, dime size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 8178 3541 8190 3551 8210 3553 8208
      3553 8212 3560 8226 3577 8216
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 299DEG 11KT 3562 8207

CARROLL