Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

691 
WWUS52 KGSP 041941
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
341 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

SCC021-023-087-091-042030-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0149.000000T0000Z-170704T2030Z/
Chester SC-York SC-Cherokee SC-Union SC-
341 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CHESTER...SOUTHWESTERN YORK...SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE
AND NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTIES...

At 340 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 12 miles north of
Union, or 7 miles northeast of Jonesville, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Lockhart, Bullock Creek, Saratt, Hickory Grove, Jonesville and
Adamsburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

This storm is producing frequent and intense lightning. Turn off
electrical appliances. Do not use corded telephones. Do not take a
bath or shower.

This storms is also producing extremely heavy rainfall. Flooding of
drainage ditches and low lying areas may occur. Small streams will
rise rapidly. Do not drive through areas where water is flowing over
the road.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3484 8168 3497 8163 3498 8138 3476 8137
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 278DEG 12KT 3489 8156 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CDG

564 
WWUS52 KGSP 041956
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
356 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

SCC021-023-087-042006-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0149.000000T0000Z-170704T2030Z/
Chester SC-Cherokee SC-Union SC-
356 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CHESTER...
SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened and 
moved out of the warned area.  Therefore, the warning has been 
cancelled.

LAT...LON 3488 8147 3489 8147 3490 8148 3491 8147
      3493 8148 3494 8147 3494 8149 3497 8149
      3498 8148 3498 8138 3485 8137
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 269DEG 17KT 3493 8140 

$$

SCC091-042030-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0149.000000T0000Z-170704T2030Z/
York SC-
356 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN YORK COUNTY...

At 356 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles southwest
of York, or near Sharon, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Hickory Grove and Bullock Creek. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

This storm is producing frequent and intense lightning. Turn off
electrical appliances. Do not use corded telephones. Do not take a
bath or shower.

This storms is also producing extremely heavy rainfall. Flooding of
drainage ditches and low lying areas may occur. Small streams will
rise rapidly. Do not drive through areas where water is flowing over
the road.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3488 8147 3489 8147 3490 8148 3491 8147
      3493 8148 3494 8147 3494 8149 3497 8149
      3498 8148 3498 8138 3485 8137
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 269DEG 17KT 3493 8140 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CDG

462 
WWUS52 KGSP 042001
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

SCC091-042011-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0149.000000T0000Z-170704T2030Z/
York SC-
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN YORK COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3488 8147 3489 8147 3490 8148 3491 8147
      3493 8148 3494 8147 3494 8149 3497 8149
      3498 8148 3498 8138 3485 8137
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 277DEG 16KT 3493 8137 

$$

CDG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
256 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad high pressure will remain centered over the western Atlantic
while a slow moving, weak cold front lingers over the region through
midweek. A second cold front will push through the area this weekend
with somewhat drier and cooler air briefly settling in behind it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT: Convection developing across GSP metro area will
move into an area slightly more favorable for severe wind gusts thru
late afternoon as it moves into an axis of greater dCAPE (>800 J/kg)
that pokes northward over the eastern Piedmont of SC. Additional
storms are expected to develop through late afternoon in a zone near
old frontal boundary, outflow boundary from morning convection, and
cloudy/clear boundary from morning activity that runs roughly across
northern third of GA and across Upstate to CLT metro area. In that
regard, the Marginal Risk might be placed a bit too far N. Will
tweak the precip chances to account for this. Temps will be
modulated a bit depending on where storms develop/move.

Over the next 24 hours, expect more of the same as weak upper waves
move along in a quasi-zonal flow over the top of moisture pooled
along an old surface boundary. The synoptic scale guidance has not
necessarily handled this the best, as it continues to put more of
the precip too far N. Think Upstate SC/northeast GA has at least as
good a chance as the NC mtns because of access to better
instability, and the fcst will trend toward that idea. There will
certainly be a diurnal enhancement, but will not rule out precip
lingering well into the overnight hours closer to the path of the
upper waves. Expect Wednesday to be nearly the same, with boundaries
developing near edge of convective debris and outflows playing a
role in forming new precip starting by midday. Cannot rule out a few
more severe storms in the Marginal Risk area. Temps will also be
similar to this past afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT: In the early part of this forecast cycle the upper
low in Missouri will be opening up and lifting northeast. Meanwhile,
this will allow the Bermuda High to re-adjust its position with H5
heights rising across our forecast area (FA) from Wednesday night
into Thursday. This is particularly the case across parts of NE
Georgia and upstate South Carolina.

We will allow showers and thunderstorms to diminish or end Wednesday
night, except in the western North Carolina mountains, where upslope
could linger showers through the night.

The signals for showers and thunderstorms Thursday appear to be
better established for western North Carolina, where another in a
series of upper level pockets of energy ripples through the region.
This is coincident with a moist and unstable airmass, and a multi-
convergent surface pattern. As a result we have POPS reaching likely
in the NC mountains with chance POPS flared out to the east and
south. Our southern FA may nearly be capped, therefore slight chance
should work their.

The question mark is really for Thursday night and Friday. All of
the models are bringing an upper level trough, and some semblance of
a wind shift feature, into our area Thursday night and Friday. H85
wind fields increase to 30-30 knots with the a couple of the models.
Our call on this one is to refocus the shower and thunderstorm
potential Thursday night in our upslope areas, and then bring a
chance of showers and storms through the FA Friday. Confidence in
the latter half of the forecast is below average.

We have went on the warm side of the temperature guidance in those
areas with less thunderstorm potential Thursday and Friday, and near
normal elsewhere. Heat indices in our south and east FA Thursday
could reach into the upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Tuesday: the extended fcst picks up at 00z on
Saturday with a broad upper trof digging south over the Eastern
CONUS with steep upper ridging in place over the west. This pattern
is expected to remain in place thru most of the period with heights
starting to rise again by early next week as the trof begins to
deamplify and lift northward. At the sfc, a reinforcing cold front
will move thru the fcst area on Saturday with a continental high
briefly sliding over the region in the front's wake. This could
provide a brief period of fair wx on Sunday. According to the GFS,
the high weakens and slides offshore on Monday with moist SLY low
lvl flow returning to the region for the remainder of the period.
The 00z ECMWF is still slower to move the high offshore and is
therefore slower to return SLY flow to the area. For the sensible
fcst, I kept a blend of the model solutions that keeps high-end
chance PoPs on Sat and a slight chance PoP for Sunday. Monday and
Tues return to a more typical summertime afternoon/evening, diurnal
PoP regime. High temps should peak near climatology for Sat with
slightly cooler values for the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT: Low clouds have scattered out, so we begin with SCT030 and
a light NW wind per observations. The convection-allowing model
guidance has been suggesting that deep convection would reach the NC
Piedmont between 19Z and 20Z, and the latter looks reasonable based
on what is seen on KGSP radar. The morning update changed to a TEMPO
group for MVFR cig/vis in a thunderstorm from 20Z to 00Z and this
still seems reasonable. When this happens, the wind should come
around to WSW. The guidance now indicates the potential for a second
round of convection during the middle part of the evening, but this
was limited to a VCSH for brevity for the time being. After that,
expect convective debris clouds overnight, with a light wind. The
wind direction should come up from the SW after sunrise Wednesday.
Expect cu to form with some heating.

Elsewhere: Will have to contend with area of showers/storms over the
upstate TAF sites at the start of the period. Think we will briefly
stabilize in its wake for a few hours, but should have time to
destabilize in late afternoon. Thus, another TEMPO was used to bring
TSRA back across the region in the early evening. KAVL similar with
debris showers at present time. Timing a bit later at KHKY.
Otherwise, similar to KCLT with convective debris clouds overnight.
KAVL has the best chance at a fog restriction around sunrise.

Outlook: Moist and unsettled weather will continue through the week.
Nocturnal restrictions can be expected in locations receiving heavy
rainfall.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  91%     High 100%
KHKY       High  99%     High  95%     High  88%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
408 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-050815-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
408 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop today. The greatest coverage is
expected over the North Carolina mountains and Interstate 40
corridor, but all areas will see storms develop. Cloud-to-ground
lightning will occur with any thunderstorms. However, conditions
today will be favorable for a few of them to produce damaging wind
gusts and torrential rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of damaging
winds or flash flooding to our office.

Wimberley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
132 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

SCZ004>006-010-041830-
Greater Pickens SC-Greater Oconee SC-Anderson SC-
Greater Greenville SC-
132 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL GREENVILLE...
NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON...SOUTHERN PICKENS AND EAST CENTRAL OCONEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

At 132 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles west of Pickens
to near Seneca, and moving southeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Clemson, Seneca, Piedmont, Belton, Central, Williamston, Northlake,
Pendleton, Liberty and West Pelzer.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 8298 3481 8290 3485 8282 3472 8229
      3450 8250
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 294DEG 22KT 3484 8284 3470 8295

STUREY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
139 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

SCZ003-006-007-041845-
Greenville Mountains SC-Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
139 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE AND
NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 138 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles southeast of Brevard, or near Pleasant Ridge State Park, moving
east at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Slater-Marietta, Inman, Campobello, Lake Bowen, Tigerville, Lake
Robinson, Pleasant Ridge State Park, Jones Gap State Park, Landrum
and Duncan.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3504 8260 3506 8259 3507 8257 3508 8259
      3515 8257 3516 8255 3516 8253 3518 8246
      3517 8245 3516 8246 3517 8244 3518 8243
      3517 8204 3493 8214
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 282DEG 23KT 3507 8252

STUREY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
212 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

NCZ035-502-041915-
Greater Caldwell NC-Alexander NC-
212 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ALEXANDER AND NORTHEASTERN
CALDWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 211 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Boomer, or 4 miles south of Elkville, moving east
at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Taylorsville, Stony Point, Hiddenite, Kings Creek, Vashti, Ellendale
and Millersville.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3604 8140 3604 8137 3600 8133 3603 8127
      3604 8119 3603 8117 3604 8113 3603 8107
      3605 8103 3598 8100 3582 8108 3597 8147
      3605 8144 3607 8140
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 284DEG 15KT 3600 8139

STUREY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
233 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

SCZ007-008-013-041915-
Cherokee SC-Union SC-Spartanburg SC-
233 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN SPARTANBURG...CHEROKEE
AND NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 232 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northwest of Spartanburg, or near USC Upstate, moving east at
30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Spartanburg, Gaffney, Boiling Springs SC, Duncan, Lyman, Pacolet,
Cowpens, Wellford, Inman and Blacksburg.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible over
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3495 8220 3517 8215 3515 8149 3476 8152
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 275DEG 27KT 3501 8200

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
302 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

SCZ010-041930-
Anderson SC-
302 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTY
UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 301 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Anderson, or near Homeland Park, moving east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Anderson, Homeland Park, Belton, Honea Path, Anderson Airport and
Broadway Lake.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3440 8273 3454 8269 3455 8241 3454 8241
      3454 8239 3451 8236 3451 8235 3450 8234
      3450 8233 3448 8231 3435 8252
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 276DEG 17KT 3446 8265

CDG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
315 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

SCZ007>009-013-014-042000-
York SC-Cherokee SC-Union SC-Chester SC-Spartanburg SC-
315 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CHESTER...WESTERN
YORK...EAST CENTRAL SPARTANBURG...CHEROKEE AND NORTHEASTERN UNION
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 315 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 5 miles west of Gaffney to 11 miles southeast of
Spartanburg, and moving east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Gaffney, Pacolet, Cowpens, Blacksburg, Jonesville, Pacolet Mills,
Grover, Lockhart, Hickory Grove and Smyrna.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3485 8182 3514 8181 3518 8162 3517 8134
      3477 8136
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 270DEG 17KT 3510 8174 3488 8175

CDG