Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

042 
WWUS52 KGSP 041856
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
256 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

SCC021-083-041930-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-170704T1930Z/
Spartanburg SC-Cherokee SC-
256 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG AND NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES...

At 256 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast of
Spartanburg, or near Cowpens, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Cowpens, Mayo, Cowpens National Battlefield, Thicketty, Chesnee and
Spartanburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

This storms is also producing extremely heavy rainfall. Flooding of
drainage ditches and low lying areas may occur. Small streams will
rise rapidly. Do not drive through areas where water is flowing over
the road.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3496 8190 3509 8193 3513 8190 3518 8177
      3518 8174 3494 8169
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 261DEG 15KT 3503 8184 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CDG

564 
WWUS52 KGSP 041912
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
312 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

SCC083-041921-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-170704T1930Z/
Spartanburg SC-
312 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3495 8176 3504 8180 3504 8181 3506 8181
      3510 8183 3511 8179 3512 8173 3494 8169
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 258DEG 10KT 3504 8175 

$$

SCC021-041930-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-170704T1930Z/
Cherokee SC-
312 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY...

At 311 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles west of
Gaffney, or near Cowpens, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Thicketty.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

This storms is also producing extremely heavy rainfall. Flooding of
drainage ditches and low lying areas may occur. Small streams will
rise rapidly. Do not drive through areas where water is flowing over
the road.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3495 8176 3504 8180 3504 8181 3506 8181
      3510 8183 3511 8179 3512 8173 3494 8169
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 258DEG 10KT 3504 8175 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CDG

405 
WWUS52 KGSP 041918
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
318 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

SCC021-041927-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-170704T1930Z/
Cherokee SC-
318 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore the warning has
been cancelled.  However gusty winds and heavy rain are still
possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3495 8176 3504 8180 3504 8181 3506 8181
      3510 8183 3511 8179 3512 8173 3494 8169
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 262DEG 12KT 3504 8172 

$$

CDG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
158 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain centered over the western Atlantic while
a broad upper level trough persists over the eastern part of the
nation most of the week. A weak cold front will linger over the
region through midweek, helping to focus the development of showers
and thunderstorms. A second cold front will push through the area
this weekend and somewhat drier and cooler weather may settle in
behind it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 140 PM EDT: Most of earlier convection over the mtns has
weakened and dissipated, as expected, while new development has
fired along cloudy/clear boundary near GA/SC Blue Ridge Escarpment.
Precip chances were altered to account for the radar trends. High
temps still look good. Seeing the >800 dCAPE area nosing Nwd over
the Upstate, so the current activity might move into a region
slightly more favorable for strong downbursts after it moves past
the GSP metro area. High temps look ok.

Otherwise, a series of weak short waves cross the area today and
tonight with a weak surface boundary remaining nearly stationary
across the area. This will provide enough forcing for another round
of mainly diurnal convection again today. Moderate instability
develops once again but with a little better shear due to the short
waves. DCAPE values will be higher as well. Therefore, an isolated
severe storm with damaging winds will be possible. Localized
excessive rainfall is possible as well with high PW values and
relatively slow moving storms. The best coverage will be across NC
with tapering off to scattered coverage over the western Upstate and
NE GA. Convection should diminish this evening but not completely
dissipate with lingering forcing and the moist weakly unstable air
mass remaining in place. Highs today will be near normal with lows
tonight a little above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM July 4th: On Wednesday a baroclinic zone will stretch
from a weak sfc low over West Virginia east into the Atlantic,
on the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Though our area
will be in the warm sector and destabilize to some degree, the
flow will largely be westerly thru the column. Model QPF response
(including the HiRes WRF windows and NAMNest) mostly focuses west
of the mtns or on the nrn fringe of the CWFA, possibly reflecting
the lack of a good forcing mechanism. The NAM and GFS show wide
disparity in the amount of CAPE that develops. The NAM would suggest
a damaging microburst threat given drier midlevels and stronger
buoyancy. SPC has included the area in a Marginal Risk on the new
Day 2 outlook, which sounds good if the NAM verifies. However,
given the questionable coverage in the downsloping flow and in
the GFS solution, I kept PoP near climo in the southern zones,
ramping up to high chance-range values in the north.

A well defined shortwave, complete with sfc reflection, will
reach the mid-Mississippi Valley late Wednesday and advect east
from there. The indication from most models is that this wave
will ride over the subtropical ridge, taking the best DPVA north
of our area and along the front, thru eastern KY and toward the
Chesapeake Bay region late Thu and early Fri. However, a weak
cold front will trail it toward the south, which moves into our
CWFA Thu evening. PoPs will peak a bit higher on Thursday as
will QPF. Shear will be slightly stronger during the afternoon,
but doesn't really tick up until after sunset. Lapse rates remain
sufficient for some elevated instability; the main severe threat,
if any, would appear to be from an organized line exiting TN/KY
Thu night, forced by the front.

Temps will be near normal over most of the area, but the SC and
lower GA Piedmont may see highs rise perhaps 3 degrees above climo
with more sunshine each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of early July 4th: A shortwave and associated weak cold front will
push through the area Friday. Whether these features will be timed to
enhance convective coverage is somewhat in question, but midlevel
lapse rates will be improved as heights fall. A continental high will
build south and east in the wake of a reinforcing cold front Saturday
or Saturday night, likely giving us at least a brief respite from
thunderstorms.  Meanwhile, deeper waves embedded within the Eastern
trough will rotate across the Great Lakes region, maintaining it into
early next week. The front is expected to stall over the Coastal
Plain along the fringe of the trough, where the EC keeps it. The GFS
however gradually shifts it back north into the Piedmont again as the
Bermuda High resurges late Monday into early Tuesday, so its dry
period is notably shorter. The Canadian is an outlier, basically
featuring convection along both fronts but merging them into a big
mess for the Carolinas late Sunday.

In light of the trends, a blend of the previous fcst grids and WPC
values was used. This results in chance PoPs Friday and Saturday,
lower-than-climo PoPs Sunday, and then an increase again Monday with
the return of the front. Max temps should remain generally near climo
Fri-Sat, with slightly cooler values afterward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT: Low clouds have scattered out, so we begin with SCT030 and
a light NW wind per observations. The convection-allowing model
guidance has been suggesting that deep convection would reach the NC
Piedmont between 19Z and 20Z, and the latter looks reasonable based
on what is seen on KGSP radar. The morning update changed to a TEMPO
group for MVFR cig/vis in a thunderstorm from 20Z to 00Z and this
still seems reasonable. When this happens, the wind should come
around to WSW. The guidance now indicates the potential for a second
round of convection during the middle part of the evening, but this
was limited to a VCSH for brevity for the time being. After that,
expect convective debris clouds overnight, with a light wind. The
wind direction should come up from the SW after sunrise Wednesday.
Expect cu to form with some heating.

Elsewhere: Will have to contend with area of showers/storms over the
upstate TAF sites at the start of the period. Think we will briefly
stabilize in its wake for a few hours, but should have time to
destabilize in late afternoon. Thus, another TEMPO was used to bring
TSRA back across the region in the early evening. KAVL similar with
debris showers at present time. Timing a bit later at KHKY.
Otherwise, similar to KCLT with convective debris clouds overnight.
KAVL has the best chance at a fog restriction around sunrise.

Outlook: Moist and unsettled weather will continue through the week.
Nocturnal restrictions can be expected in locations receiving heavy
rainfall.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  92%     High  99%
KHKY       High  99%     High  95%     High  92%     High  99%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
408 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-050815-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
408 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop today. The greatest coverage is
expected over the North Carolina mountains and Interstate 40
corridor, but all areas will see storms develop. Cloud-to-ground
lightning will occur with any thunderstorms. However, conditions
today will be favorable for a few of them to produce damaging wind
gusts and torrential rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of damaging
winds or flash flooding to our office.

Wimberley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
110 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

SCZ002-005-006-010-041815-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-Anderson SC-
Greater Greenville SC-
110 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL GREENVILLE...NORTH
CENTRAL ANDERSON AND CENTRAL PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

At 109 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northwest of Pickens, moving east at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenville Downtown, Easley, Pickens, Greenville Eastside, West
Greenville, Greer, Mauldin, Taylors, Berea and Welcome.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 8288 3504 8284 3502 8259 3501 8259
      3501 8254 3500 8254 3498 8253 3498 8255
      3497 8254 3500 8244 3498 8222 3495 8222
      3472 8229
TIME...MOT...LOC 1709Z 282DEG 26KT 3494 8276

STUREY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
132 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

SCZ004>006-010-041830-
Greater Pickens SC-Greater Oconee SC-Anderson SC-
Greater Greenville SC-
132 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL GREENVILLE...
NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON...SOUTHERN PICKENS AND EAST CENTRAL OCONEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

At 132 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles west of Pickens
to near Seneca, and moving southeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Clemson, Seneca, Piedmont, Belton, Central, Williamston, Northlake,
Pendleton, Liberty and West Pelzer.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 8298 3481 8290 3485 8282 3472 8229
      3450 8250
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 294DEG 22KT 3484 8284 3470 8295

STUREY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
139 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

SCZ003-006-007-041845-
Greenville Mountains SC-Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
139 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE AND
NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 138 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles southeast of Brevard, or near Pleasant Ridge State Park, moving
east at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Slater-Marietta, Inman, Campobello, Lake Bowen, Tigerville, Lake
Robinson, Pleasant Ridge State Park, Jones Gap State Park, Landrum
and Duncan.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3504 8260 3506 8259 3507 8257 3508 8259
      3515 8257 3516 8255 3516 8253 3518 8246
      3517 8245 3516 8246 3517 8244 3518 8243
      3517 8204 3493 8214
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 282DEG 23KT 3507 8252

STUREY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
212 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

NCZ035-502-041915-
Greater Caldwell NC-Alexander NC-
212 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ALEXANDER AND NORTHEASTERN
CALDWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 211 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Boomer, or 4 miles south of Elkville, moving east
at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Taylorsville, Stony Point, Hiddenite, Kings Creek, Vashti, Ellendale
and Millersville.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3604 8140 3604 8137 3600 8133 3603 8127
      3604 8119 3603 8117 3604 8113 3603 8107
      3605 8103 3598 8100 3582 8108 3597 8147
      3605 8144 3607 8140
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 284DEG 15KT 3600 8139

STUREY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
233 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

SCZ007-008-013-041915-
Cherokee SC-Union SC-Spartanburg SC-
233 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN SPARTANBURG...CHEROKEE
AND NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 232 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northwest of Spartanburg, or near USC Upstate, moving east at
30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Spartanburg, Gaffney, Boiling Springs SC, Duncan, Lyman, Pacolet,
Cowpens, Wellford, Inman and Blacksburg.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible over
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3495 8220 3517 8215 3515 8149 3476 8152
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 275DEG 27KT 3501 8200

JPT