Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

754 
WWUS52 KGSP 152301
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
701 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

SCC023-152311-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0128.000000T0000Z-170615T2315Z/
Chester SC-
701 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHESTER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However heavy rain is
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3457 8142 3458 8143 3460 8142 3464 8142
      3466 8145 3470 8145 3472 8116 3456 8116
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 274DEG 4KT 3463 8134 

$$

TDP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
525 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A deep ridge over the Atlantic will continue to transport warm,
moist air into the area through the weekend and into early next
week, keeping chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast. A cold front approaching the area will increase chances
for storms on Monday, with some rain chances hanging around next
week as the front stalls near our area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 515 PM: convective coverage has steadily expanded across the
CWFA over the past few hours, with most of the activity occurring
over the higher terrain and into the foothills. A robust MCS
continues to move eastward across portions of Alabama and Georgia,
but that system should remain to our south as it approaches the
area. Otherwise, with the shortwave providing a slight enhancement
to lift overnight, PoPs were allowed to diminish slowly, but a lull
is expected across the area during the early morning hours. Patchy
fog will likely develop again, though convective debris and other
cirrus associated with the shortwave may be enough to prevent it
from being as solid

From a synoptic standpoint, things look appreciably more favorable
for convective development over our area tomorrow. The shortwave
will be passing over the area during peak heating; no significant
DPVA is suggested by the NAM or GFS, but its presence leads to
steeper lapse rates than we've seen most of this week so far.
Furthermore, some degree of low level convergence is resolved with
the prefrontal (and/or lee) trough. Likely PoPs are fcst over most
of the CWFA. Prog soundings continue to look dry enough to expect a
nonzero threat of damaging wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday: Slightly better upper level forcing will
be over the region on Saturday with a weak trough axis and
associated vorticity maximum arriving from the west. This could lead
to more non-diurnal scattered coverage early in the period Friday
night through Saturday morning. However, peak heating should still
yield the best convective coverage Saturday afternoon as sbCAPE
values surge to 2000 to 2500 J/kg around the region. Westerly flow
will increase a bit on Sunday as the digging northern stream trough
amplifies toward the Ohio River Valley - with a lingering vorticity
lobe in the weakness atop our region. The initiation of the
strongest convection should once again occur along and east of the
Blue Ridge on Sunday afternoon and sbCAPEs may be a touch higher
Sunday compared to Saturday. Meanwhile, south to southwest low level
flow will continue to pump moisture into the region and precipitable
water values and the associated localized flooding threat will
remain elevated all weekend. Expect well above climo PoPs both days
this weekend with min temps well above climo and maxes around climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday: Uncertainty in the medium range is
increasing due to a number of factors, though overall it appears we
will remain in a wet pattern. A surface cold front will approach
the area Monday night as an upper level longwave trough digs into
the east coast, suggesting that we may not see a diurnal lull in
pops Monday night into Tuesday morning. Frontal passage will occur
some time during the day on Tuesday, and most solutions agree this
will not be clean. There is disagreement as to exactly where the
front may get hung up, but at least the southern half of our
forecast area will hold on to pops through Tuesday. The upper and
surface ridges over the Atlantic will retreat a bit by Wednesday, so
an Atlantic moisture fetch will set up over the Carolinas. With the
surface boundary washing out somewhere close to our area, high-end
chances for diurnal convection will remain through the end of the
week.

The other wildcard at the moment is the erratic behavior of the
trough/tropical wave feature somewhere in the Gulf at the end of the
period. Direct impacts for our area appear unlikely, but the remnant
moisture from the system could serve to either increase or decrease
QPF towards the end of the period depending on its track and where
moisture transport is best. The system will be watched, but
regardless of its track, the medium range will remain muggy and
rather wet. Minimum temperatures will run roughly 5 degrees above
average, with maximum temperatures near average.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Winds will be rather variable this aftn
with a weak pressure pattern across the region, plus the possible
influence of a shortwave approaching from the west. By evening
SW-ly winds are expected to prevail. Diurnally driven TSRA are the
initial impact weather expected during the period. Said storms
will spread generally from the mountains into the foothills and
Piedmont over the course of the aftn, with profiles favorable
for strong to severe winds to develop in some. A second wave of
activity could develop in a convergence zone over the Upstate in
the late afternoon or early evening, aided by the shortwave, and
per several meso model runs and sfc analysis. Hence VCSH/VCTS are
kept into the evening as needed. Dry air above the sfc should once
again limit fog mainly to areas where soils are wet from antecedent
rainfall. KAVL/KHKY saw restrictions this morning and are expected
to see them again; guidance hints that KCLT may also be affected.

Outlook: Chances for SHRA/TSRA will remain elevated
through the weekend, possibly resulting in afternoon/evening
restrictions. Chances for morning vsby restrictions increase as
well, mainly over the mtn valleys, but also possible outside of
the mtns where any precipitation has fallen.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Low   53%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Carroll
NEAR TERM...JPT/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...Carroll
AVIATION...JPT/Wimberley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
319 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-161930-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
319 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue to develop late
this afternoon through early this evening across the region. A few
of the storms may produce brief severe weather in the form of
damaging wind gusts and hail as large as quarters. In addition, the
slow movement of the storms could result in locally excessive
rainfall and flash flooding, especially in locations that have
received heavy rainfall since Tuesday. Otherwise, dangerous cloud to
ground lightning can occur with any thunderstorm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, or flash flooding to our office.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
542 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             FAIR PLAY               34.51N 82.99W
06/15/2017  E0.75 INCH       OCONEE             SC   PUBLIC

            PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL IN FAIR PLAY.

&&

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
542 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

GAZ010-152215-
Rabun GA-
542 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING IMPACTING WESTERN
RABUN COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 542 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 9 miles east of Hiawassee, or near Moccasin Creek
State Park, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Lake Burton and Moccasin Creek State Park.

In addition to intense lightning, half inch hail and very heavy
rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3488 8366 3490 8363 3491 8363 3492 8360
      3493 8360 3494 8359 3495 8355 3499 8355
      3499 8339 3476 8355 3477 8356 3479 8356
      3480 8358 3482 8359 3482 8365 3484 8366
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 214DEG 22KT 3490 8359

CSH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
546 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

GAZ028-SCZ004-010-152215-
Hart GA-Greater Oconee SC-Anderson SC-
546 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HART...SOUTHWESTERN
ANDERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 546 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Hartwell, or near Reed Creek, moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Anderson, Homeland Park, Northlake, Reed Creek, Starr, Anderson
Airport, Lake Hartwell, Townville, Fair Play and Sadlers Creek State
Park.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

Lake Hartwell is in the path of this storm. Cloud to ground
lightning and gusty winds will create dangerous boating conditions.
Move to shore immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3440 8302 3458 8298 3458 8265 3431 8270
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 279DEG 13KT 3449 8292

TDP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
603 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             4 E CLARKESVILLE        34.61N 83.45W
06/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       HABERSHAM          GA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED ALONG ANTIOCH CHURCH ROAD.

&&

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
605 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

GAZ028-029-152230-
Elbert GA-Hart GA-
605 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ELBERT AND SOUTHERN
HART COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 605 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Danielsville, or near Bowman, moving east at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Elberton, Bowman, Dewy Rose, Sweet City, Nuberg and Vanna.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3406 8299 3408 8300 3408 8301 3410 8304
      3411 8303 3412 8305 3415 8306 3417 8310
      3419 8309 3420 8309 3423 8308 3426 8311
      3431 8284 3404 8284
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 269DEG 8KT 3417 8305

TDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
613 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

SCZ014-152300-
Chester SC-
613 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CHESTER COUNTY
UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 613 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles south of Chester, or near Chester State Park. This storm was
nearly stationary.

Locations to be impacted include...
Chester, Chester State Park, Cornwell and Leeds.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3457 8136 3463 8139 3474 8125 3466 8104
      3456 8118
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 327DEG 1KT 3463 8125

TDP