Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
226 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A deep ridge over the Atlantic will continue to transport warm,
moist air into the area through the weekend and into early next
week, keeping chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast. A cold front approaching the area will increase chances
for storms on Monday, with some rain chances hanging around next
week as the front stalls near our area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 PM: Convection is now well underway over the mountains
and foothills,but so far what cumulus exist over the Piedmont look
stunted on GOES-16. Meso model runs have come into consensus that
the mountain activity will slowly propagate into the lower terrain,
and that an apparent convergence zone in our far southeast will
drive a second round of development across the lower Piedmont in
the last couple hours of the day. Indeed cu are most widespread
in that area. The arrival of the shortwave trough now over KY/TN
may also play a role in this activity. Given the appreciable
sfc-midlevel theta-E lapse (delta values exceeding 20 K) it is
within reason to expect the stronger cells will be capable of
severe downbursts. And one cannot forget the mature MCS plowing
thru the Tenn Valley, which is stronger and further south than
depicted on the HRRR. It is moving toward more buoyant air, but
as it moves into the weaker flow over the Deep South it might
begin to fizzle. It certainly could at least brush the SW NC mtns,
but the HRRR suggests the bowing gust front would miss us.

With the shortwave providing a slight enhancement to lift overnight,
PoPs were allowed to diminish only slowly, but a lull is expected
across the area during the early morning hours. Patchy fog again
will develop, though convective debris and other cirrus associated
with the shortwave may be enough to prevent it from being as solid

From a synoptic standpoint, things look appreciably more favorable
for convective development over our area tomorrow. The shortwave
will be passing over the area during peak heating; no significant
DPVA is suggested by the NAM or GFS, but its presence leads
to steeper lapse rates than we've seen most of this week so
far. Furthermore some degree of low level convergence is resolved
with the prefrontal (and/or lee) trough. Likely PoPs are fcst over
most of the CWFA. Prog soundings continue to look dry enough to
expect a nonzero threat of damaging wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday: Slightly better upper level forcing will
be over the region on Saturday with a weak trough axis and
associated vorticity maximum arriving from the west. This could lead
to more non-diurnal scattered coverage early in the period Friday
night through Saturday morning. However, peak heating should still
yield the best convective coverage Saturday afternoon as sbCAPE
values surge to 2000 to 2500 J/kg around the region. Westerly flow
will increase a bit on Sunday as the digging northern stream trough
amplifies toward the Ohio River Valley - with a lingering vorticity
lobe in the weakness atop our region. The initiation of the
strongest convection should once again occur along and east of the
Blue Ridge on Sunday afternoon and sbCAPEs may be a touch higher
Sunday compared to Saturday. Meanwhile, south to southwest low level
flow will continue to pump moisture into the region and precipitable
water values and the associated localized flooding threat will
remain elevated all weekend. Expect well above climo PoPs both days
this weekend with min temps well above climo and maxes around climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday: Uncertainty in the medium range is
increasing due to a number of factors, though overall it appears we
will remain in a wet pattern. A surface cold front will approach
the area Monday night as an upper level longwave trough digs into
the east coast, suggesting that we may not see a diurnal lull in
pops Monday night into Tuesday morning. Frontal passage will occur
some time during the day on Tuesday, and most solutions agree this
will not be clean. There is disagreement as to exactly where the
front may get hung up, but at least the southern half of our
forecast area will hold on to pops through Tuesday. The upper and
surface ridges over the Atlantic will retreat a bit by Wednesday, so
an Atlantic moisture fetch will set up over the Carolinas. With the
surface boundary washing out somewhere close to our area, high-end
chances for diurnal convection will remain through the end of the
week.

The other wildcard at the moment is the erratic behavior of the
trough/tropical wave feature somewhere in the Gulf at the end of the
period. Direct impacts for our area appear unlikely, but the remnant
moisture from the system could serve to either increase or decrease
QPF towards the end of the period depending on its track and where
moisture transport is best. The system will be watched, but
regardless of its track, the medium range will remain muggy and
rather wet. Minimum temperatures will run roughly 5 degrees above
average, with maximum temperatures near average.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Winds will be rather variable this aftn
with a weak pressure pattern across the region, plus the possible
influence of a shortwave approaching from the west. By evening
SW-ly winds are expected to prevail. Diurnally driven TSRA are the
initial impact weather expected during the period. Said storms
will spread generally from the mountains into the foothills and
Piedmont over the course of the aftn, with profiles favorable
for strong to severe winds to develop in some. A second wave of
activity could develop in a convergence zone over the Upstate in
the late afternoon or early evening, aided by the shortwave, and
per several meso model runs and sfc analysis. Hence VCSH/VCTS are
kept into the evening as needed. Dry air above the sfc should once
again limit fog mainly to areas where soils are wet from antecedent
rainfall. KAVL/KHKY saw restrictions this morning and are expected
to see them again; guidance hints that KCLT may also be affected.

Outlook: Chances for SHRA/TSRA will remain elevated
through the weekend, possibly resulting in afternoon/evening
restrictions. Chances for morning vsby restrictions increase as
well, mainly over the mtn valleys, but also possible outside of
the mtns where any precipitation has fallen.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  94%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Med   78%     High  91%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  94%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  94%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Carroll
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...Carroll
AVIATION...Wimberley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
319 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-161930-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
319 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue to develop late
this afternoon through early this evening across the region. A few
of the storms may produce brief severe weather in the form of
damaging wind gusts and hail as large as quarters. In addition, the
slow movement of the storms could result in locally excessive
rainfall and flash flooding, especially in locations that have
received heavy rainfall since Tuesday. Otherwise, dangerous cloud to
ground lightning can occur with any thunderstorm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, or flash flooding to our office.

HG

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
348 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

NCZ051-058-152030-
Graham NC-Swain NC-
348 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN SWAIN AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 348 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 12 miles southwest of
Gatlinburg to 6 miles west of Robbinsville, and moving northeast at
10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Robbinsville, Town Of Santeetlah, Smoky Mountains-Newfound Gap, Smoky
Mountains-Fontana Area, Lake Santeetlah, Fontana Lake, Fontana
Village, Smoky Mountains-Twentymile Creek, Smoky Mountains-Clingmans
Dome and Smoky Mountains-Deep Creek.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

Fontana Lake is in the path of these storms. Cloud to ground
lightning and gusty winds will create dangerous boating conditions.
Move to shore immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3548 8392 3552 8388 3553 8382 3556 8377
      3557 8363 3558 8360 3556 8358 3556 8350
      3561 8345 3562 8339 3526 8370 3530 8400
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 247DEG 7KT 3557 8362 3535 8391

TDP

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
403 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW MORGANTON          35.70N 81.76W
06/15/2017                   BURKE              NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN AT BEDFORD AVE AND BEDFORD ST.

&&

LEC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
409 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

GAZ018-SCZ001-004-152100-
Stephens GA-Greater Oconee SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
409 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL STEPHENS AND
SOUTHWESTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 408 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Toccoa, or 6 miles southeast of Tallulah Gorge State
Park. This storm was nearly stationary.

Locations to be impacted include...
Toccoa, Westminster, Eastanolee and Long Creek.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

Lake Hartwell is in the path of this storm. Cloud to ground
lightning and gusty winds will create dangerous boating conditions.
Move to shore immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3465 8337 3467 8337 3469 8334 3470 8335
      3472 8335 3480 8322 3463 8303 3448 8330
      3464 8338
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 327DEG 4KT 3469 8327

TDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
451 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

NCZ068>070-508-152130-
Greater Rutherford NC-Gaston NC-Cleveland NC-Lincoln NC-
451 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT EAST
CENTRAL RUTHERFORD...WESTERN LINCOLN...CLEVELAND AND NORTHWESTERN
GASTON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 450 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms with
intense lightning along a line extending from 13 miles northwest of
Lincolnton to 8 miles east of Forest City, and moving east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Shelby, Lincolnton, Cherryville, Belwood, Lawndale, Fallston,
Polkville, Lattimore, Waco and Casar.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and very
heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors, try
to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away
from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When
indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired
electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug
unnecessary appliances before the storms approach.

&&

LAT...LON 3556 8157 3557 8153 3555 8114 3522 8146
      3539 8185 3557 8166 3557 8160
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 279DEG 16KT 3555 8146 3536 8171

TDP