River Flood Advisory 82, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
356 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

LATEST UPDATE...
Hydro

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

Improving weather conditions will occur tonight and Friday. High
temperatures will climb from 40 today to 60 Saturday and 70 Sunday.
Most of the weekend will be dry except for a chance of showers and
storms Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

Forecast concerns deal with pcpn trends and winds late this
afternoon and evening.

Local radar shows the snow winding down across the eastern cwa; pcpn
has ended at man locations west of US-131. Sfc obs reveal that winds
really haven't reached wind advisory criteria, although LDM did
briefly. With that in mind we have cancelled the winter weather
advisory. Mixed light rain and snow showers will continue to
diminish this evening as the low moves east. Latest vis loop shows
mainly clear skies west of the lake and this air will work its way
over the cwa later tonight with clearing skies from northwest to
southeast.

High pressure will then build into the Great Lakes resulting in
clear to partly cloudy skies and increasingly warmer temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

The long term portion of the forecast will feature fairly typical
spring time weather for Lower Michigan, and a little less rain than
what we have seen over the past couple of weeks.

We continue to expect warm temps for Sun and Mon with 70 degrees
likely being reached on both days. Southerly winds will be advecting
the warm air in, along with some additional moisture. H850 temps
climbing to around +12 to +13C would support temps well into the
70s. We have been a bit conservative for now, especially for Mon as
clouds and some rain will become possible ahead of the next system
to our west. Thunderstorms look possible too with a bit of
instability resulting from the warmth and moisture. Depending on the
timing of the front and amount of instability, some stronger storms
will be possible.

We will cool off a bit for mid week as the upper wave supporting the
system to our SW will move almost overhead while dampening out a
bit. Upper troughing will linger over the area, so a few light
showers will remain possible. The air on Tue and Wed will be fairly
seasonable as the cold air aloft never really makes it over the area.

We will see temps start to warm up then again late in the period on
Thu. Upper heights will build fairly quickly over the area in
response to a fairly strong low that moves onshore over the Western
U.S. coast. We will likely see temps in the 60s on Thu with even
warmer temps likely to follow beyond the period. The ridge nearby
should keep the area dry, which will be welcome with the wet pattern
we have seen over the last couple of weeks. River levels will have a
chance to drop off some.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

Conditions will gradually improve for the rest of this afternoon
and this evening. Some locally heavier bands of snow are impacting
KLAN just before 18z. These could also impact KJXN before slipping
east of the area likely toward 20z.

Further west, pcpn has changed back to rain where temps have been
allowed to warm a bit where pcpn is not as heavy, and cigs are
gradually lifting from west to east at KMKG and KGRR. This trend
will slowly continue, and KLAN and KJXN should finally see this
happen this evening. Skies will clear out overnight tonight from
West to East.

Winds are still coming up, and should peak in the next few hours.
Peak wind gusts will likely end up between 35-40 knots. Winds will
diminish a bit later this evening and overnight. Gusts of 20-25
knots will remain likely overnight and on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

The gale warning remains in effect until Friday morning. Northwest
gales to 35 knots will diminish to 30 knot winds by morning. A small
craft advisory will be required Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

Minor river flooding is ongoing across Southwest Lower Michigan,
thanks to recent precipitation. The rain and snow that fell
Wednesday into today will quickly move into the river systems as the
ground is saturated and the snow should quickly melt. This
additional rain and melted snow should boost river levels even more.

The crest on the Grand River will be moving from east to west over
the next several days. Minor flooding will be impacting the city
of Lansing, with near flood stage in Ionia and just below flood in
Grand Rapids. However, areas like Comstock Park and Robinson
Township will be in flood stage for this event.

There will be a reprieve in the rainfall Friday through Sunday. This
will allow the rivers to stabilize some. Additional rainfall early
next week is possible.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for LMZ844>849.

&&

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63/Hoving
MARINE...04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
406 pM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-070815-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
406 pM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms area possible later Sunday night into early Tuesday
as the next cold front moves into the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ844>849-070815-
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
406 pM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Gales to 35 knots will diminish to 30 knots tonight. Waves 8 to 12
feet will subise to 4 to 8 feet.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Winds and waves will remain hazardous to small craft into Friday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

04

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
511 PM EDT THU APR 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             BELLEVUE                42.44N 85.02W
04/06/2017  E3.0 INCH        EATON              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED OVERNIGHT TOTAL AS OF 700 AM.

0500 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BELLEVUE                42.44N 85.02W
04/06/2017  M2.11 INCH       EATON              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN AND MELTED SNOW TOTAL SINCE LAST NIGHT.

&&

CAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
905 PM EDT THU APR 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W SOUTH HAVEN         42.40N 86.29W
04/06/2017  M57 MPH          LMZ844             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION SVNM4, SOUTH HAVEN GLERL.

0333 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNW SAUGATUCK         42.68N 86.22W
04/06/2017  M53 MPH          LMZ845             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION XSTK, SAUGATUCK BREAKWATER.

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST MACATAWA                42.77N 86.21W
04/06/2017  M48 MPH          OTTAWA             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION HLNM4, HOLLAND HARBOR.

0441 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WNW JACKSON           42.26N 84.46W
04/06/2017  M48 MPH          JACKSON            MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION JXN, JACKSON COUNTY-REYNOLDS
            FIELD AIRPORT.

0422 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NE PORTAGE            42.23N 85.55W
04/06/2017  M45 MPH          KALAMAZOO          MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION AZO, KZOO/BATTLE CREEK INTL
            AIRPORT.

0516 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE NORTON SHORES      43.17N 86.24W
04/06/2017  M45 MPH          MUSKEGON           MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION MKG, MUSKEGON COUNTY AIRPORT.

0459 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NE SHELBY             43.64N 86.33W
04/06/2017  M44 MPH          OCEANA             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AU347, 4 SSE HART.

0644 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW BATTLE CREEK      42.31N 85.25W
04/06/2017  M41 MPH          CALHOUN            MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION BTL, W K KELLOGG AIRPORT.

0520 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ENE KENTWOOD          42.89N 85.54W
04/06/2017  M41 MPH          KENT               MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION GRR, GERALD R FORD INTL.

0757 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 N EDGEMONT PARK       42.78N 84.59W
04/06/2017  M40 MPH          CLINTON            MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION LAN, CAPITAL CITY AIRPORT.

&&

CAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
907 PM EDT THU APR 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     SNOW             2 NE BATH               42.84N 84.42W
04/06/2017  M1.7 INCH        CLINTON            MI   PUBLIC

            FELL BETWEEN 6 AM AND 1 PM.

&&

CAS