Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
242 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

Latest radar images indicated scattered showers and a few storms
continued to develop across the area this afternoon. Latest meso
plots indicated surface base capes of 600 to 800 J/KG but the
mixed layer capes were only 200 J/KG. Expect scattered showers
and storms to continue for the remainder of the afternoon into
early this evening, before ending by mid to late evening. Some
of the storms could still produce gusty winds to 40 mph and
small hail along with locally heavy rain. Later tonight, patchy
fog may restrict visibilities, especially across portions of
north-central and northeast Wisconsin.

On Sunday, expect mostly cloudy skies and increasing chances for
showers and storms during the day. Severe thunderstorms are not
expected. Otherwise, did not stray far from guidance for lows
tonight or highs on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

Mostly seasonable weather is in store for northern and central
Wisconsin with northwest upper flow and a few shortwave troughs
moving through at times.

A surface low moving across the northern Ohio Valley Sunday night will
probably stay far enough south to keep most of the showers south of
the forecast area but kept a chance of showers in the Fox Valley. Then
it looks like surface high pressure moves into the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes with pleasant summer weather Monday and Tuesday. An upper
trough approaches the region Wednesday as a weak surface cold front
moves slowly south. It should be able to produce showers and
thunderstorms across the north Wednesday afternoon and evening
and across the rest of the area Wednesday night and Thursday.

Stronger upper support arrives Friday and Saturday, with the models
suggesting the formation of a closed low over northern Minnesota or
Upper Michigan Friday night. There could be considerable rain and wind
across the western Great Lakes next Saturday and Sunday, but there
is a lot of uncertainty, so not smart to be too specific at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

Scattered cumulus clouds along with scattered showers and some
thunderstorm activity can be expected across the region this
afternoon into early this evening. Some of the stronger storms
could produce wind gusts to around 30 knots, small hail and brief
heavy rain. The showers and storms should end by mid to late
evening. Later tonight, some patchy fog and low clouds are
expected to develop across portions of central and north-central
Wisconsin. Any low clouds and fog should burn off by mid morning
on Sunday. More showers and storms expected late Sunday morning
and Sunday afternoon.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Eckberg
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......Eckberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1129 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-061630-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
1129 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and early this
evening. While severe weather is not expected, some storms could
produce wind gusts to 40 mph and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms Sunday afternoon
and evening. Severe weather is not expected.

Thunderstorms are possible at times during the middle of next
week, but conditions do not appear favorable for severe weather
during this period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-061630-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
1129 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon into early this
evening. Severe weather is not expected, but some storms could produce
wind gusts over 30 knots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms on Sunday
afternoon and evening. Severe weather is not expected.

Thunderstorms are possible at times during the middle of next
week, but conditions do not appear favorable for severe weather
during this period. The storms will pose a hazard to boaters on
the lake and bay.

Eckberg/RDM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
253 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

WIZ022-040-074-052130-
Door-Kewaunee-Southern Oconto County-
253 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

Showers and a few thunderstorms will produce heavy rain and gusty
winds as they move across southern Oconto county and the southern
bay into Kewaunee and southern Door counties. A quick half inch to
inch of rain is possible in a few locations.

RDM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
411 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

WIZ035>038-045-048>050-052230-
Calumet WI-Waupaca WI-Outagamie WI-Winnebago WI-Manitowoc WI-
Waushara WI-Wood WI-Portage WI-
411 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

At 407 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms from
around Whiting to Oshkosh to New Holstein, moving southeast at 20
mph. Heavy rainfall and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible
with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Oshkosh, Stevens Point, Waupaca, Wautoma, Menasha, Berlin, Chilton,
Redgranite and Whiting.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
lead to localized urban flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4390 8889 4398 8889 4398 8931 4407 8960
      4425 8960 4425 8993 4463 8960 4396 8765
      4389 8770 4389 8816 4394 8816 4394 8840
      4389 8840
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 297DEG 17KT 4443 8962

Kieckbusch