Small Craft Advisory 57, NWS Green Bay, WI

463 
WHUS73 KGRB 050826
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
326 AM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS DOOR COUNTY...

.WINDS HAVE EASED ACROSS DOOR COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. THEREFORE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LMZ521-541-050930-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SC.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-170805T1400Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
326 AM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

WINDS HAVE EASED ACROSS DOOR COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. THEREFORE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

KURIMSKI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
919 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017

New Information added to update section

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017

Made significant changes to marine headlines and cancelled Beach
Hazards, as winds are dropping off. Also adjusted pops/wx tonight.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017

Scattered showers and temperatures returning to more seasonable
levels for the weekend.

The large scale pattern is expected to change little during the
period, with ridging remaining near the West Coast and troughing
over central and eastern portions of North America. There are some
indications that the positive anomaly with the western ridge will
build eastward across Canada north of the eastern North American
upper trough beyond the end of the forecast period. If it occurs,
that would just lock the upper trough in over the region even
longer, leading similar conditions persisting beyond day 7.

The departure of the system currently affecting the area should
allow temperatures to rebound from the chilly levels of the past
2 days. Readings near to a few degrees below normal are expected
during the next week. There will be several opportunities for
precipitation during the period, though none appear likely to
generate rainfalls as significant as those of the past 36 hours.
Amounts will probably end up near normal for the period.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017

Although diminishing, precipitation bands on the western flank of
the departing cyclone continue to affect the area. Lake-effect
parameters suggest at least some lake-effect contribution is
occurring, and satellite imagery supports this also. For this
reason, will linger precipitation longer into the evening than in
the previous forecast. Another factor is a shortwave dropping
southeast from southwestern Ontario. Numerous showers have
developed across the Minnesota Arrowhead in advance of this
feature, and the LDS indicated quite a bit of lightning too. There
is likely some diurnal component to the precipitation, but don't
think it will all go away at sunset. So will brush a mention of
thunder across the western part of the forecast area late this
afternoon into this evening. Stuck with the previous forecast in
having a dry period after midnight into tomorrow morning, but
confidence in that occurring isn't the greatest. The showers with
the ON shortwave could certainly linger longer than expected.
There was also some support among the guidance in beginning
showers tomorrow before noon.

The best chance for showers tomorrow afternoon will probably be
across the north and northeast, though a case could be made for
showers anywhere across the area. The return of at least some
sunshine and a more westerly wind direction will allow
temperature to rebound 7-14F degrees from today.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017

Rain chances and timing are the main concerns for the latter half
of the weekend through the upcoming work week.

The 12Z NAM, GFS, ECMWF and Canadian all indicated measurable
rainfall in the area on Sunday ahead of an approaching mid level
short wave, so there is a chance for showers Sunday through Sunday
evening, with some thunder possible during the afternoon hours.
After 06Z Monday there are mainly just some slight chances for
showers lingering into Monday morning before surface high pressure
and a mid level ridge bring drier weather starting Monday
afternoon. Another cold front and approaching mid level trough
bring chances for showers and some thunderstorms back to the
forecast area starting on Wednesday. The picture is a bit less
clear for the rest of the week due to model differences, so have
not made any changes to the blended model solution.

Below normal highs, though much warmer than today, are expected
for Sunday and Monday. Daytime temperatures should be near normal
for Tuesday and Wednesday before cooling a few degrees for
Thursday and Friday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017

VFR flight conditions were observed at all sites early this
evening, and radar showed scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over parts of north central and central WI.
The shower activity is expected to diminish after sunset,
then increase again Saturday afternoon, as daytime instability
builds and a weak upper level disturbance arrives.

Expect clouds to break up overnight as weak high pressure
builds into the western Great Lakes. Partly cloudy skies and
light winds should lead to patchy fog development, especially
in the favored areas of north central WI, including the RHI TAF
site.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE.........Kieckbusch
SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Skowronski
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
240 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-051945-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
240 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few thunderstorms could affect portions of central and north-
central Wisconsin through mid-evening, but the storms are not
expected to be severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Friday

Thunderstorms are possible at times through the upcoming weekend
and during the middle of next week, but conditions do not appear
favorable for severe weather during this period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be necessary tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-051945-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
240 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Northwest gales will continue on the bay and lake in the vicinity
of the Door Peninsula through the evening, while conditions
hazardous to small craft persist elsewhere.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Friday

Thunderstorms are possible at times through the upcoming weekend
and during the middle of next week. The storms will pose a hazard
to boaters on the lake and bay.

Skowronski/MG