Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
309 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

An area of showers moved out of eastern Wisconsin by early
afternoon but another round of showers, and thunderstorms, was
moving through north central and parts of central Wisconsin. This
second round was associated with a mid level short wave and
surface cold front. The latest RAP and HRRR showed the second area
of showers exiting the state by early evening, with convection
that was moving into western Wisconsin this afternoon dissipating
or at least weakening considerably with loss of daytime heating.

There looks to be a lull in the convective activity during the
night, but still have some PoPs mainly across north central
Wisconsin closer to the surface and upper level cyclones. The
chance for showers, and some thunderstorms, will increase again on
Memorial Day with daytime heating destabilizing the atmosphere and
another mid level short wave moving across Wisconsin.

A cooler air mass, clouds, and rain will keep temperatures cooler
on Memorial Day than they were today. Highs are expected to range
from the middle 50s to the middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Cyclonic upper flow will keep mostly cloudy and cool
weather across our area through Wednesday along with scattered
showers mostly in the afternoon and evening hours.

Northwest upper flow forecast Thursday and Friday, though
scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible Thursday night
and Friday as a shortwave trough moves through the flow.

Saturday and Sunday's forecast is a little less certain, as the
models have big differences in the movement of upper jet energy
from the Plains states. The GFS looks more reasonable with a
chance of showers versus the ECMWF idea of heavy rain Saturday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

An area of showers moved out of eastern Wisconsin around midday.
There were some IFR ceilings in the wake of the departing
precipitation but breaks in the clouds were developing and their
bases were rising. Observations closest to the Bay and Lake
Michigan were IFR at 17Z and BKN-SCT 1000-2000 foot AGL clouds
prevailed a bit farther to the west. Showers and thunderstorms
were moving into north central Wisconsin early this afternoon,
associated with a mid level short wave and surface cold front.
Some of the storms produced small hail in northwest Wisconsin.
Ceilings were mostly VFR, with scattered MVFR, as the storms
passed.

Expect ceilings in the east to become VFR by mid afternoon, with
some showers and storms moving into that area. There should only
be scattered MVFR ceilings and/or visibility with the
precipitation. Showers and storms are expected to exit central and
north central Wisconsin early in the afternoon, with VFR
conditions until late tonight when MVFR ceilings arrive.
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Westerly winds, occasionally gusting to near 25 knots, are
expected Memorial Day.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MG
MARINE.........RDM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
246 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-292000-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
246 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected into the early evening
hours. Small hail and gusty winds are possible with a few
storms, but severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Memorial Day, mainly
during the afternoon hours. At this time, it appears that the
threat for severe storms is low.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday
across central and east central Wisconsin. The threat of severe
storms appears low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-292000-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
246 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail over the
land could pose a hazard to mariners if they do not dissipate
before reaching the lake and bay later this afternoon and
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

Gusty west winds may create hazardous conditions for small craft
Memorial Day. There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms on
Memorial Day, mainly during the afternoon hours.

There is another chance of thunderstorms Thursday night and
Friday.

MG/RDM

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