Small Craft Advisory 44, NWS Green Bay, WI

937 
WHUS73 KGRB 290207
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
907 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

...HIGH WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY...

.SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST MONDAY MORNING AND INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LMZ521-522-541>543-291015-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0044.170529T1500Z-170530T0000Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
907 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT
MONDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTH INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS LATE MONDAY 
  MORNING. A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. 

* WAVES...BUILDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.  INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

230 
WHUS73 KGRB 290839
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
339 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017

...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...

.SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST THIS MORNING AND INCREASE 
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES 
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LMZ521-522-541>543-291645-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0044.170529T1500Z-170530T0000Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
339 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING
  THEN BECOMING WEST. 

* WAVES...BUILDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.  INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

KURIMSKI

532 
WHUS73 KGRB 291502
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1002 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017

...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...

.SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST THIS MORNING AND INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LMZ521-522-541>543-292315-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-170530T0000Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
1002 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS BECOMING WEST AND INCREASING TO
  15 TO 25 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. 

* WAVES...1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.  INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

BERSCH

853 
WHUS73 KGRB 291954
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
254 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2017

...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...

.WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-300000-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-170530T0000Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
254 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS. 

* WAVES...1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.  INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1254 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Monday
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Showers are quickly developing ahead of an approaching shortwave
currently making its way through the western Great Lakes. This
activity will continue to develop during the morning hours, as
hi-res models bring a swath of light to moderate rain to most of
the cwa as this feature tracks through the area. Therefore will
continue with fairly high POPs given the confidence in the models
and adjust the previous forecast for timing per the new
observational data available.

Another round of rain is expected this afternoon as a cold front
sweeps through the western Great Lakes region. This activity will
have a better chance for thunder as it encounters 500 to 1000 J/kg
of MUCAPE ahead of the cold front. Rain chances will continue
tonight, mainly across the north, as yet another shortwave tracks
through the western Great Lakes. The active pattern continues into
Memorial Day as yet another shortwave spins off a low pressure
system situated to the north with yet another surface boundary
tracking through the region.

Temperatures during this period will slowly fall, with highs today
ahead of the cold front expected to get into the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Temperatures tonight will be a bit cooler, ranging from
the middle 40s across the north, with lows around 50 across the
south. By Memorial Day highs will range from the upper 50s across
the north, with lower to middle 60s across the south.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Models are consistent in their depiction of the closed upper low/
shortwave trough moving east into southeast Canada/northeast
CONUS, a new upper trough to push into the western CONUS late week
and a weakening upper ridge from the Rockies into western Canada.
Northeast WI to remain in a northwest flow aloft through at least
Thursday, leaving the region susceptible to any weak systems
diving southeast. Timing of precipitation chances continues to be
the main forecast challenge for the upcoming week. Temperatures
will initially be cool as the initial shortwave exits the area,
however readings are forecast to gradually warm closer to normal
by late week.

Loss of daytime heating will allow for stabilization of the
atmosphere to occur, thus expect most of any shower activity/
early evening storm to dissipate prior to midnight. May leave a
small overnight pop over the north closer to the closed upper low
that will be moving across northern sections of the Great Lakes. A
decent amount of cloud cover will be left over the region with min
temperatures in the lower to middle 40s north-central WI, upper
40s to around 50 degrees east-central WI.

Cool, cyclonic flow remains over the western Great Lakes on
Tuesday and with the models showing another shortwave trough
digging southeast through the main trough, expect to see clouds
build with another day of precipitation chances. Lapse rates are
not as steep as Monday, thus while a stray thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, coverage would be too minimal to carry in the forecast.
Tuesday still looks like the coolest day of the week with max
temperatures only in the lower to middle 50s north-central, to the
lower 60s across eastern WI.

Any shower activity will once again end Tuesday evening as daytime
heating wanes, leaving another mostly cloudy night across
northeast WI. Min temperatures are expected to be about a degree
or two cooler than Monday night with lower 40s north-central, to
the upper 40s east-central WI. Northeast WI to reside on the
western fringe of the cyclonic flow on Wednesday with high
pressure trying to push east, but mainly pass to our south.
Anticipate some cumulus development, but with the cooler air mass
shifted east, lapse rates are not as steep. Only a spotty shower
is expected at this time with the vast majority of the area
staying dry under partly sunny skies. At least mixed sunshine and
weak WAA will allow max temperatures to reach the lower 60s
north-central/near Lake MI, middle to upper 60s elsewhere.

After a quiet Wednesday night where the weak surface ridge axis to
extend into WI, precipitation concerns return later on Thursday as
another shortwave trough digs southeastward in the northwest flow
aloft. There are some model differences as the ECMWF takes this
trough far enough to our west and south to keep any showers away
from northeast WI. However, the GFS and CMC sweep this trough into
WI with the CMC faster than the GFS. Difficult to judge how much
this shortwave trough will dig, so will generally keep a small pop
in the forecast for Thursday. Warmer air aloft will continue to
overspread WI on Thursday with max temperatures in the middle to
upper 60s near Lake MI, around 70 degrees north and lower 70s
south.

The model uncertainty continues into Thursday night as the CMC
pushes this system away from WI, whereas the GFS still has showers
going through the night into Friday. The ECMWF has changes its
tune and now brings a secondary system into WI Thursday night
with enough instability for possible thunderstorms which may
linger across southern sections of the forecast area into Friday.
In addition to the precipitation disparity, the ECMWF is much
quicker in raising upper heights into WI on Friday, while the
GFS/CMC still have a semblance of a northwest flow aloft with
cooler air over WI. Have followed model consensus for now which
keeps a small chance pop over the forecast area Thursday night
into Friday. Depending on whether any precipitation actually
develops on Friday, temperatures could have a wide range of
possibilities. Have compromised between the cooler GFS and warmer
ECMWF with readings close to values seen on Thursday.

Unfortunately, we cannot even rule out a few showers headed into
next weekend if the ECMWF is correct with another weak shortwave
trough crossing the area. The GFS/CMC favor more of an area of
high pressure over the Great Lakes and have no precipitation with
seasonal temperatures. Bottom line is that confidence goes
downhill starting on Thursday and hope that the models get into
better sync in the coming days.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

An area of showers moved out of eastern Wisconsin around midday.
There were some IFR ceilings in the wake of the departing
precipitation but breaks in the clouds were developing and their
bases were rising. Observations closest to the Bay and Lake
Michigan were IFR at 17Z and BKN-SCT 1000-2000 foot AGL clouds
prevailed a bit farther to the west. Showers and thunderstorms
were moving into north central Wisconsin early this afternoon,
associated with a mid level short wave and surface cold front.
Some of the storms produced small hail in northwest Wisconsin.
Ceilings were mostly VFR, with scattered MVFR, as the storms
passed.

Expect ceilings in the east to become VFR by mid afternoon, with
some showers and storms moving into that area. There should only
be scattered MVFR ceilings and/or visibility with the
precipitation. Showers and storms are expected to exit central and
north central Wisconsin early in the afternoon, with VFR
conditions until late tonight when MVFR ceilings arrive.
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Light winds are expected today, with a gradual and steady increase
tonight. Westerly winds will increase, occasionally gusting to
near 25 knots, Memorial Day through Tuesday as low pressure
meanders across Ontario. Small craft advisories or small craft
should exercise caution headlines may be needed in subsequent
issuances for Memorial Day and Tuesday.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......Kallas
AVIATION.......MG
MARINE.........Kurimski

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
246 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-292000-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
246 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected into the early evening
hours. Small hail and gusty winds are possible with a few
storms, but severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Memorial Day, mainly
during the afternoon hours. At this time, it appears that the
threat for severe storms is low.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday
across central and east central Wisconsin. The threat of severe
storms appears low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-292000-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
246 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail over the
land could pose a hazard to mariners if they do not dissipate
before reaching the lake and bay later this afternoon and
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

Gusty west winds may create hazardous conditions for small craft
Memorial Day. There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms on
Memorial Day, mainly during the afternoon hours.

There is another chance of thunderstorms Thursday night and
Friday.

MG/RDM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1146 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

WIZ005-281730-
Vilas WI-
1146 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 1143 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Turtle Flambeau Flowage, moving northeast at 35
mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm should reach far northwest Vilas county north of
Winchester around 1215pm.

LAT...LON 4630 8992 4628 8985 4624 8993 4630 8993
TIME...MOT...LOC 1643Z 225DEG 30KT 4616 9028

RDM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1205 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

WIZ005-281745-
Vilas WI-
1205 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 1205 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Turtle Flambeau Flowage, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winchester, Presque Isle and Manitowish Waters.

LAT...LON 4624 8965 4606 8993 4630 8993
TIME...MOT...LOC 1705Z 222DEG 28KT 4606 9014

RDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
129 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     HAIL             THREE LAKES             45.79N 89.16W
05/28/2017  M0.25 INCH       ONEIDA             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BERSCH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
137 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

WIZ005-010>013-019>021-030-031-281930-
Shawano WI-Langlade WI-Vilas WI-Florence WI-
Northern Oconto County WI-Marathon WI-Oneida WI-Menominee WI-
Forest WI-Northern Marinette County WI-
137 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 136 PM CDT, trained weather spotters reported scattered
thunderstorms with pea size hail and gusty winds along a line
extending from 10 miles northwest of Kenton to 10 miles east of
Eagle River to 5 miles south of Weston. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Antigo, Crandon, Weston, Florence, Wittenberg, White Lake, Tipler,
Popple River, Carter and Pearson.

LAT...LON 4602 8882 4603 8878 4602 8878 4601 8868
      4599 8867 4599 8862 4602 8860 4601 8859
      4602 8853 4599 8850 4600 8846 4598 8842
      4599 8838 4596 8833 4596 8825 4595 8818
      4490 8872 4472 8963 4583 8906 4613 8906
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 250DEG 31KT 4660 8900 4585 8900 4481 8954

RDM