Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
930 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

New Information added to update section

.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Severe threat has transitioned from primarily a tornado threat to
more of a wind/hail threat. Just dropped Oneida/Vilas from Tornado
Wath 222 since the severe threat is over in that area...at least
for a time. Considering replacing 222 with a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch which would also extend farther to the south and east. Plan
to have a decision on that by 03Z, when WW222 expires.

UPDATE
Issued at 703 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Cluster of intense/severe storms from northwest Wisconsin tracking
toward the NW part of the forecast area. Storms will pose a threat
of hail, wind, and tornadoes, especially with surface boundary
across that area.

Also watching an MCS heading out of NE/western IA that could
affect east-central Wisconsin after midnight. That is if northwest
Wisconsin storms do not drop southeast into that area first.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected for the
remainder of the afternoon through Wednesday. First round of
showers and thunderstorms moving across central Wisconsin
this afternoon. These storms were producing locally heavy rain and
frequent lightning. Marshfield was down to 1/2 mile in heavy rain
a little while ago. This round of showers and thunderstorms should
stay mainly north and west of the Fox Valley this afternoon.

Attention then turns to more convection developing along a cold
front west of the area this afternoon. Convection should develop
along the front and then move into central and north-central
Wisconsin this evening. Enough shear present to provide a small
risk of severe weather. Somewhat concerned that convection
this afternoon could limit severe potential, but think some
destabilization can be anticipated late this afternoon and
early this evening to continue the risk.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to
develop west of the area later tonight and move across
central and north-central after midnight. Most of the
shower and thunderstorm activity should stay north and
west of the Fox Valley.

Attention then turns to Wednesday where there is a slight risk
of severe thunderstorm. Some of these storms could become severe
with damaging winds and large hail. There is some uncertainty
due to cloud cover and ongoing convection Wednesday morning, but
greatest risk of severe thunderstorms would be across northeast
and east-central Wisconsin. Highs on Wednesday will be tricky
depending on cloud cover and rain, ranging from the lower to
middle 60s far north to the upper 70s far east.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Models are in general agreement with the overall mean flow into
early next week. The initial shortwave trough will continue to
lift northeast through the Great Lakes Wednesday night/Thursday
and bring additional showers/thunderstorms to northeast WI. An
upstream shortwave trough is then expected to settle over the
central Rockies late week before lifting north-northeast through
the Upper MS Valley this weekend and bringing the next chance for
precipitation to the forecast area. The unsettled weather pattern
persists into early next week as another shortwave trough/cold
front sweeps into the Great Lakes around Tuesday. Temperatures
will take a nosedive starting on Thursday and remain cool through
Saturday before readings get closer to normal early next week.

Wednesday night looks wet, plain and simple as the surface low/
cold front and mid-level shortwave trough moves into the western
Great Lakes. Instability is moderately-strong initially with Capes
in the 1000-1500 J/KG range and LI's in the -3 to -8 range in the
evening. SPC's marginal/slight risk of severe thunderstorms still
looks valid based on these parameters. There will also be plenty
of moisture available with dew points in the 50s to lower 60s and
PW values in the 1.00-1.50" range, thus localized heavy rainfall
does exist Wednesday night. The higher rain potential would be
along and left of the track of the surface low, which right now
would be across central WI. Thus, north-central WI would see the
higher QPF values. Min temperatures may be tricky depending on how
fast the cold front shifts east. The NAM is farthest east and
seems too quick with the surface low lifting northeast along the
boundary. Prefer the milder readings with upper 40s to lower 50s
north-central, upper 50s to lower 60s east-central WI.

The surface low quickly exits the region Thursday morning dragging
the cold front across the rest of WI by Thursday afternoon.
Showers are a good bet Thursday morning (especially north) until
the frontal passage occurs, then drier/more stable air mass begins
to advect into the area. The biggest change will be temperatures
as readings fall behind the front into the 40s north, 50s south by
late afternoon.

As an area of high pressure sinks south into northern sections of
North Dakota and Minnesota Thursday night, skies will clear and
temperatures will drop accordingly. Depending on wind speeds,
there is a possibility of frost across the north as min
temperatures fall into the lower 30s. Even central WI is
vulnerable with middle 30s, however some clouds may start to
return toward daybreak which would limit the frost threat. This
area of high pressure moves east across northern sections of the
Great Lakes on Friday, but clouds will already be starting to
increase in advance of the next weather system pushing across the
central/southern Rockies. In fact, the CMC already brings light
rain into the southern half of WI Friday afternoon. For now, will
thicken the clouds and bring a small pop into at least central WI
for later on Friday. Coolest temperatures of the extended forecast
will be on Friday with readings in the lower 50s near Lake MI,
middle to upper 50s elsewhere.

As this mid-level shortwave trough lifts northeast into the Plains
Friday night into Saturday, low pressure and its associated cold
front will also move northeast across the Upper MS Valley/Midwest
and bring showers/possible thunderstorms to northeast WI. The
higher pops would occur on Saturday as the cold front pushes
toward WI. Instability is rather weak with this system, thus a
severe threat appears minimal at this time. The gulf is open,
however, thus locally heavy rain cannot be ruled out. Temperatures
to remain below normal, though not as cool as Thursday
night/Friday. Look for max temperatures on Saturday to range from
the middle to upper 50s north/lakeside, upper 50s to lower 60s
south.

The showers would then continue through Saturday night as the cold
front moves across WI and the surface low tracks northeast into
Ontario. Models are having timing issues as to how fast this
system will pull away from Wisconsin as we head into Sunday. The
ECMWF is actually the fastest with the clearing trend, whereas the
CMC holds precipitation chances into Monday. Too much uncertainty
to simply go dry, thus have left small chance pops in the forecast
on Sunday. Temperatures will edge higher with readings in the
upper 50s north-central, lower to middle 60s south.

After a brief respite Sunday night/Monday, precipitation chances
return again by Tuesday as the next mid-level shortwave trough/
surface cold front sweeps into the western Great Lakes.
Temperatures will continue to edge higher with readings Monday and
Tuesday just a bit below normal.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 703 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Thunderstorms will be the main aviation forecast concern during
the period. Low ceilings may also work into the north later
tonight.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE.........Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Eckberg
LONG TERM......Kallas
AVIATION.......Skowronski

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
838 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             3 E RHINELANDER         45.63N 89.35W
05/16/2017  E0.88 INCH       ONEIDA             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0820 PM     TSTM WND DMG     IRMA                    45.34N 89.66W
05/16/2017                   LINCOLN            WI   PUBLIC

            A COUPLE TREES DOWN NEAR HWY 51.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
838 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

WIZ030-170230-
Marathon WI-
838 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MARATHON COUNTY
UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 838 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles east of Medford to near Owen. Movement
was east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Abbotsford around 910 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Edgar, Cherokee,
Little Chicago, March Rapids, Hamburg, Poniatowski, Athens, Gad, Rib
Falls and Fenwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for central and
north central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4503 9031 4504 9020 4512 9020 4512 8938
      4480 9002 4484 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 271DEG 19KT 4514 9010 4493 9052

Kurimski

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
935 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             PELICAN LAKE            45.50N 89.11W
05/16/2017  E2.00 INCH       ONEIDA             WI   PUBLIC

            AT LEAST 2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL.

&&

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