Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Green Bay, WI

182 
WWUS53 KGRB 171854
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
154 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

WIC073-097-141-171930-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-170517T1930Z/
Wood WI-Portage WI-Marathon WI-
154 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WOOD...NORTHWESTERN PORTAGE AND MARATHON COUNTIES...

At 154 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Colby to near Spencer to near Marshfield to near
Pittsville, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Wausau, Marshfield, Weston, Rib Mountain, Mosinee, Abbotsford,
Spencer, Pittsville, Rothschild and Schofield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4503 9031 4504 9020 4512 9020 4512 8969
      4489 8960 4458 8962 4430 9031
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 234DEG 44KT 4488 9036 4479 9026 4471 9019 4462
9015 4452 9020

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

EB

922 
WWUS53 KGRB 171905
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
205 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

WIC073-097-141-171930-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-170517T1930Z/
Wood WI-Portage WI-Marathon WI-
205 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WOOD...NORTHWESTERN PORTAGE AND WESTERN MARATHON
COUNTIES...

At 203 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Dorchester to 9 miles east of Colby to 11 miles
east of Spencer to near Marshfield, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. A 66 mph wind gust 
         was measured at Marshfield ASOS at 159 pm CDT.

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Wausau, Marshfield, Weston, Rib Mountain, Mosinee, Abbotsford,
Pittsville, Rothschild, Schofield and Knowlton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4503 9031 4504 9020 4512 9020 4512 8969
      4489 8960 4458 8962 4436 9021
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 226DEG 49KT 4499 9023 4490 9013 4482 9006 4473
9002 4463 9007

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

EB

470 
WWUS53 KGRB 171915
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
215 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

WIC073-097-141-171930-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-170517T1930Z/
Wood WI-Portage WI-Marathon WI-
215 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN WOOD...NORTHWESTERN PORTAGE AND CENTRAL MARATHON
COUNTIES...

At 213 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 10 miles east of Dorchester to 14 miles east of
Abbotsford to 15 miles west of Rib Mountain to 11 miles west of
Mosinee to 11 miles east of Marshfield, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. Storm spotter 
         reported small tree branches down in Marshfield at 200 pm 
         CDT.  

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Wausau, Weston, Rib Mountain, Mosinee, Rothschild, Schofield,
Knowlton, Stratford, Marathon City and Edgar.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4503 9031 4504 9020 4512 9020 4512 8969
      4489 8960 4458 8962 4441 9010 4458 9009
      4490 9015
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 236DEG 45KT 4505 9012 4494 9002 4484 8997 4473
8992 4462 8993

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

EB

695 
WWUS53 KGRB 171926
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
226 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

WIC073-097-141-171934-
/O.EXP.KGRB.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-170517T1930Z/
Wood WI-Portage WI-Marathon WI-
226 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WOOD...
NORTHWESTERN PORTAGE AND CENTRAL MARATHON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 230
PM CDT...

This warning has been replaced by a new Severe Thunderstorm Warning 
for Lincoln and Marathon Counties.  Please see that bulletin for 
details.

LAT...LON 4503 9031 4504 9020 4512 9020 4512 8969
      4489 8960 4458 8962 4441 9010 4458 9009
      4490 9015
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 229DEG 42KT 4513 8998 4502 8988 4492 8983 4481
8978 4470 8979

$$

EB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1224 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Thursday
Issued at 410 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Looks like another day of severe thunderstorms is likely. An
unseasonably strong negatively tilted upper low lifting northeast
from the Central Plains will provide considerable upper support
for severe storms this afternoon and evening, while a slow moving
cold front, outflow boundaries and perhaps lake and bay breezes
provide for surface convective initiation. Cloud cover will hinder
solar heating and surface based instability for a good part of
the day, but there should be a least some breaks in the clouds in
the warm sector over the southeast half of the forecast region
later today.

The Saint louis University web page of forecast analogs showed
that nearly all of the top analogs were associated with severe
weather somewhere in Wisconsin and nearly half with tornadoes.
The NWS western region web page that displays return intervals of
various surface and upper air parameters show that the intensity
of the upper system has a return interval of once every 2 or 3
years in Wisconsin and is outside of the climatological database
in Iowa. So this will probably be an active day of severe storms
over parts of the Midwest and western Great lakes.

Clouds and showers and thunderstorms will keep temperatures in the
60s in far northern Wisconsin. The concentration of storms along
the front has the potential for producing heavy rain and local
flooding. Further south and east there will probably be just
isolated or scattered storms until late afternoon or evening as
the upper system gets closer and the surface cold front starts to
move east. The combination of best instability and shear averages
out to be somewhere between Wausau and Menominee County Michigan
late in the afternoon and early evening, with energy helicity
indices of around 3.

The storms will move across the area tonight and exit early
Thursday as the cold front moves through. Heavy rain will be the
main concern once the severe threat has ended. The air is cold
enough behind the front for temperatures to actually fall during
the day, something rare for this time of the year.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 410 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Models start this part of the forecast dry, with surface high
pressure and a mid level ridge across region. Precipitation is
then expected to move in late Friday night as a mid level trough
and surface low move northeast toward the region. PoPs drop to
slight chance on Sunday in the dry slot of the system. The
unsettled weather pattern continues into early next week as
another shortwave trough and cold front move into the Great Lakes
around Tuesday.

High temperatures are expected to be below normal through the
middle of next week.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will impact the TAF
sites during the TAF period. The best chance for thunderstorms
will be this afternoon and early this evening, with lower chances
later tonight into Thursday morning. CIGS have settled between low
VFR and MVFR this afternoon, with bases basically between 2500 and
3500 ft. Conditions will drop with showers and thunderstorms to a
solid MVFR/IFR deck, with lower conditions possible with heavier
rain activity. A cold front will move through Thursday morning,
bringing additional showers and low clouds. Conditions are not
expected to improve appreciably until Thursday afternoon when the
main low tracks east.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......Kurimski

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
421 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-180930-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
421 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across nearly all
of the forecast area. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes are possible. The afternoon and early evening hours have
the greatest potential for severe storms.

The thunderstorms will also produce heavy rain, especially across
far northern Wisconsin where local flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms are possible Saturday night but it is too early to
determine the severe weather threat at this time. There is also
the potential for heavy rain Saturday and Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely later in the day.

LMZ521-522-541>543-180930-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
421 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Increasing south winds and building waves will lead to hazardous
conditions in the Lake Michigan waters. There is a also a small
chance of severe thunderstorms this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

An abrupt wind shift from south to north will take place Thursday
during the morning or midday hours. Winds could gust to gale
force for a few hours from the north after the wind shift.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Saturday night. Winds and
waves hazardous to small craft are possible on Thursday.

RDM/MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
120 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

WIZ030-035-036-171915-
Marathon WI-Wood WI-Portage WI-
120 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO CENTRAL wISCONSIN...

At 117 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Babcock, or 22 miles west of Wisconsin Rapids, moving
northeast at 60 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Other strong thunderstorms were located over southwest Wisconsin and
will move into parts of central Wisconsin after 2 pm.

Locations impacted include...
Wausau, Marshfield, Weston, Rib Mountain, Mosinee, Abbotsford,
Spencer, Pittsville, Babcock and Rothschild.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4503 9031 4504 9020 4512 9020 4512 8934
      4511 8934 4425 9005 4427 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 210DEG 61KT 4432 9027

AK