Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
647 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Tuesday
Issued at 456 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

Showers and thunderstorms have waned across the region, despite
the presence of a surface low moving along a frontal boundary
stretched across central and east central WI, and some lingering
instability. Short-wave energy is still noted upstream over
MN/IA, and scattered showers and storms will redevelop as that
arrives this morning. Several models suggest that one wave will
move through southeast WI later this afternoon, with some more
robust convection perhaps clipping our far southeast counties.
Otherwise, the best precipitation chances should reside over
northern WI, where periodic frontogenetic forcing is anticipated
through the day. Morning highs are expected, with falling
temperatures through the afternoon. Temperatures will cool enough
for a mix of rain and snow over the far north later this
afternoon.

The remnants of the SD/NE upper low will move through the forecast
area tonight and early Tuesday, with the main deformation zone
forcing passing through northern WI. Precipitation type will be
interesting, as low-level temps and thicknesses support mixed pcpn
or snow over about the northern half of the forecast area
overnight. Parts of the far north could see 1 to 3 inches of snow,
with the greatest accums in northern Vilas county. Although
models offer different scenarios, there is some indication that
mid-level moisture will get stripped out late tonight into
Tuesday morning, leading to the potential for some freezing rain,
and local ice accums of a tenth of an inch or less. Will let the
day crew assess whether the threat is high enough for an advisory.

Precipitation will pull out of the region Tuesday morning, with
partial clearing occurring in our western counties in the
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 456 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

A couple periods of precipitation are expected during the extended
period.

The first will arrive late Wednesday or Wednesday night, then
exit on Thursday. Forcing will be provided by a short-wave trof,
upper jet energy and some WAA/isentropic lift. The atmosphere
should be warm enough for all rain.

A frontal system will move through the region sometime during the
Friday to Saturday period. This system will have some instability
to work with, so thunderstorms are possible.

Temperatures will be a little above normal through most of the
period, with the warmest day likely occurring on Saturday, when
high should rise into the 60s.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 640 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

Scattered thunderstorms will continue across central, northeast
and east central WI this morning, and another period of storms
may impact east central WI during the late afternoon and early
evening. Otherwise an upper level low will arrive tonight to
generate more widespread precipitation, especially across
northern WI. Precipitation type will change from rain to
snow across northern WI during the late afternoon and evening,
then possibly to freezing rain overnight.

Flight conditions will deteriorate to IFR at most locations.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Kieckbusch
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
515 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-111015-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
515 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across parts of central,
northeast and east central Wisconsin today. A few stronger storms
could produce hail, gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall.

Snow and freezing rain may result in hazardous travel conditions
over parts of north central and far northeast Wisconsin tonight
into Tuesday morning. Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are
possible across Vilas county, and minor ice accumulations may
occur north of a line from Merrill to Antigo to Crivitz.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms are possible Friday night into Saturday, but it
is too early to determine if severe weather will occur.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Formal spotter activation should not be needed today or tonight,
but spotters are requested to report any hail or gusty winds with
storms today, and any snow or ice accumulations tonight into
Tuesday morning.

LMZ521-522-541>543-111015-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
515 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms today. A few strong storms
could produce hail and gusty winds.

Gusty north to northeast winds will develop this afternoon
and evening, and high waves will continue on Lake Michigan, so
small craft advisories have been issued.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Gusty south winds may result in conditions hazardous to small
craft Friday night into Saturday. There will also be a threat
of thunderstorm during this period.

Gusty north to northeast winds may pose a threat to mariners
with small craft Sunday and Sunday night.

Kieckbusch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service GREEN BAY WI
632 AM CDT MON APR 10 2017

WIZ040-050-101215-
Kewaunee WI-Manitowoc WI-
632 AM CDT MON APR 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KEWAUNEE AND
NORTHEASTERN MANITOWOC COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM CDT...

At 631 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Two Creeks, or 12 miles southwest of Kewaunee, moving northeast at 40
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Two Creeks around 635 AM CDT.
  Kewaunee around 650 AM CDT.
  Algoma around 705 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Krok, Cooperstown,
Mishicot, Norman, Point Beach State Park, Kewaunee Power Station,
Fisherville, Larrabee, Curran and Rostok.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4431 8782 4433 8780 4433 8777 4436 8777
      4468 8742 4468 8732 4454 8741 4432 8748
      4421 8746 4419 8763
TIME...MOT...LOC 1131Z 221DEG 36KT 4431 8765

Eckberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service GREEN BAY WI
733 AM CDT MON APR 10 2017

WIZ018-019-030-035-036-101300-
Langlade WI-Marathon WI-Wood WI-Portage WI-Lincoln WI-
733 AM CDT MON APR 10 2017

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MOVING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

At 730 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of thunderstorms
over Wood county and western Marathon county. Movement was northeast
at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Wisconsin Rapids, Marshfield, Rib Mountain, Mosinee, Abbotsford,
Spencer and Randolph.

LAT...LON 4493 9032 4527 8923 4447 8925 4425 8997
      4425 9014 4465 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 1230Z 229DEG 44KT 4481 9026 4435 9001

TDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
822 AM CDT MON APR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MARSHFIELD              44.66N 90.16W
04/10/2017  E0.50 INCH       WOOD               WI   PUBLIC

            STILL SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AT TIME OF REPORT.

&&

KLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
827 AM CDT MON APR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0826 AM     HAIL             2 W STEVENS POINT       44.51N 89.60W
04/10/2017  E0.25 INCH       PORTAGE            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

TH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service GREEN BAY WI
838 AM CDT MON APR 10 2017

WIZ019>021-030-031-036>038-045-048-101415-
Waupaca WI-Shawano WI-Langlade WI-Outagamie WI-Winnebago WI-
Northern Oconto County WI-Marathon WI-Waushara WI-Portage WI-
Menominee WI-
838 AM CDT MON APR 10 2017

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL MOVING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

At 833 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles southeast of Merrill to 6 miles
southwest of Hartman Creek State Park. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Up to one half inch hail and winds gusts to 40 mph will be possible
with a few of these storms. At 833 am CDT, the strongest storm was
over central Portage county moving into Waupaca county.

Locations impacted include...
Appleton, Wausau, Shawano, Antigo, Waupaca, Weston, New London,
Clintonville, Randolph and Black Creek.

LAT...LON 4512 8963 4512 8943 4518 8942 4532 8862
      4425 8838 4411 8940
TIME...MOT...LOC 1333Z 259DEG 29KT 4509 8950 4426 8930

TDH