Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Green Bay, WI

635 
WWUS53 KGRB 100131
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service GREEN BAY WI
831 PM CDT SUN APR 9 2017

WIC037-100140-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-170410T0145Z/
Florence WI-
831 PM CDT SUN APR 9 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN FLORENCE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4595 8824 4594 8821 4595 8819 4594 8817
      4594 8815 4592 8810 4588 8810 4587 8807
      4581 8813 4579 8809 4578 8806 4577 8806
      4572 8839 4595 8829 4596 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 264DEG 34KT 4592 8803 4576 8811 

$$

Skowronski

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
609 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

Main forecast focus to be on thunderstorm chances late this
afternoon into the overnight hours and the potential for any of
these storms to become severe.

The 19z MSAS analysis showed an area of low pressure on the
Nebraska/Iowa border with a warm front extended northeastward
through central IA into north-central WI. Dew points have climbed
into the upper 40s to lower 50s across northeast WI and the radar
mosaic now picking up a band of showers and thunderstorms along
the warm front. Some of these storms have become strong and will
need to be watched.

The warm front is forecast to stall near its current location
tonight as the low pressure rides northeast along the stalled
boundary. The strongest frontogenetical forcing/baroclinic zone
would then set-up along and north of the boundary and it is this
location that should see the highest precipitation chances.
Furthermore, northern WI will reside on the edge of a mid-level
cap, thus a better chance of seeing thunderstorms continue through
most of the night. Best severe potential should also be across the
north where shear is the strongest (> 50 kts) and provide
sufficient updrafts to possibly allow a few storms to approach
severe limits. For central and east-central WI, it may take until
the approach of the surface low to allow for showers or
thunderstorms to move into this part of the state, mainly after
midnight. While central/east-central WI to have more instability,
the shear is not as strong compared to northern WI (40 kts). The
key to any severe potential here is the capping inversion which
may not break. Anticipate thunder chances to diminish later
tonight, but showers to persist into Monday. Min temperatures to
be in the upper 30s to lower 40s north, lower to middle 50s south.

The surface low is forecast to ride the stalled boundary across
central/east-central WI Monday morning and will continue to bring
rain showers to northern WI and a good chance of showers/isolated
thunderstorms to central/east-central WI. As the surface low exits
Monday afternoon, this will allow the frontal boundary to start
sagging south and exit the forecast area by late afternoon with
additional rain showers possible due to the deformation axis
rotating through the area. Colder air is expected to get pulled
into northern WI later in the day and may allow for some snow to
mix with the rain over Vilas county toward evening. A wide range
in temperatures can be expected on Monday with north-central WI
essentially seeing steady or slowly falling temperatures into the
middle 30s to around 40 degrees, while southern sections of the
forecast area reach the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

Primary issue Monday night is the rain to snow or mix transition
as compact low pressure system tracks across the state. Colder air
in the wake of the system will produce some snow accumulation,
especially on grassy areas. How far southeast to mention this
snowfall and snow accumulation varies from model to model. The
colder NAM and ECMWF bring a minor snow accumulation all the way
to the fox cities, while the warmer GFS confines the snow further
northwest. Several inches of accumulation still likely across
North central Wisconsin, in the deformation area of the nearly
stacked 850 to 700mb low system. The stacked system may also tend
to have a slow departure Tuesday morning with additional small
mixed pcpn chances.

Eventually dry weather will return Tuesday into Wednesday with
weak upper ridging. A weak short wave and cold front passage
Wednesday night may produce a chance of showers, possibly mixed
across the north.

Upper ridging resumes for the rest of the week with a gradual
warming trend. Next frontal system arrives for the start of next
weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

Expect lower clouds and visibilities to expand southeast across
the area in the wake of a cold front/outflow boundary sagging
south across the area. LLWS will be present for a time in advance
of the front over east-central Wisconsin.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

Potential of an inch to two inches of rainfall roughly northwest
of line from Marshfield to Crivitz. A warm front positioned
across northern Wisconsin will be the primary focus of showers
and storms tonight into Monday. Monday into Monday night, rain
will become more widespread as a low pressure system tracks across
central and northeast wisconsin. The previous warm front is
expected to shift south a bit as near stationary front and will be
the primary focus of more rainfall. The greatest rainfall amounts
are expected to be associated with this frontal boundary. Will
issue an ESF due to the potential of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall
and some river rises. But due to dry conditions across the north,
the rainfall will also serve as welcome relief for high fire
danger.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......Skowronski
HYDROLOGY......TDH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
309 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-102015-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
309 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across northern
Wisconsin. Surrounding this slight risk is a marginal risk of
severe thunderstorms across central and east-central Wisconsin.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected generally along and north of
a stalled frontal boundary draped across northern Wisconsin. A
few of the storms could become strong or severe with large hail,
gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue across central,
northeast and east central Wisconsin on Monday. A few storms
could produce gusty winds and hail.

The rain showers should change to snow showers across far northern
Wisconsin Monday night, with a small accumulation possible,
mostly on the grass.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation could be needed tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-102015-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
309 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

High waves and gusty south winds will continue to pose a threat
to mariners with small craft on Lake Michigan.

There is a chance of thunderstorms. A few storms could produce
hail and gusty winds.

Warm moist air moving over the cool waters of Lake Michigan may
produce some marine fog at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

Marine fog could last into part of Monday before dissipating.

Scattered thunderstorms could also be a hazard to mariners on
Monday.

AK/TDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
626 PM CDT SUN APR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             CALDRON FALLS RESERVOIR 45.35N 88.25W
04/09/2017  M0.88 INCH       MARINETTE          WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

SAC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
635 PM CDT SUN APR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             8 N TOMAHAWK            45.58N 89.73W
04/09/2017  M1.00 INCH       ONEIDA             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SAC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
654 PM CDT SUN APR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     HAIL             3 NW RHINELANDER        45.66N 89.45W
04/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       ONEIDA             WI   PUBLIC

            IN NEWBOLD

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
701 PM CDT SUN APR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             4 N RHINELANDER         45.69N 89.41W
04/09/2017  M0.75 INCH       ONEIDA             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SAC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
707 PM CDT SUN APR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             HARSHAW                 45.66N 89.65W
04/09/2017  M0.75 INCH       ONEIDA             WI   PUBLIC

0645 PM     HAIL             W RHINELANDER           45.63N 89.41W
04/09/2017  M0.75 INCH       ONEIDA             WI   PUBLIC

&&
VIA WSAW TV-7.

SAC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
709 PM CDT SUN APR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             SUGAR CAMP              45.78N 89.30W
04/09/2017  M1.00 INCH       ONEIDA             WI   PUBLIC

            VIA WSAW TV-7.

&&

SAC