Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Green Bay, WI

161 
WWUS53 KGRB 142112
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
412 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

WIC009-015-071-083-087-115-135-142119-
/O.EXP.KGRB.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-170614T2115Z/
Brown WI-Calumet WI-Oconto WI-Waupaca WI-Outagamie WI-Manitowoc WI-
Shawano WI-
412 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BROWN...CALUMET...SOUTH
CENTRAL OCONTO...NORTHEASTERN WAUPACA...EASTERN OUTAGAMIE...WESTERN
MANITOWOC AND EASTERN SHAWANO COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 415 PM CDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty 
winds and heavy rain are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
northeastern and east central Wisconsin.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for 
eastern Brown and Manitowoc counties until 5 pm CDT. A severe 
thunderstorm warning remains in effect for southern Oconto county 
until 530 pm CDT.

LAT...LON 4389 8816 4394 8816 4394 8839 4446 8841
      4468 8878 4488 8816 4471 8792 4463 8793
      4466 8786 4450 8776 4405 8775 4389 8801
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 239DEG 48KT 4485 8814 4477 8805 4465 8788 4424
8770

$$

AK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
241 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

Convectively induced vorticity center will continue to produce
thunderstorms during the rest of the afternoon and early evening
hours. Shear and instability are sufficient for some severe storms
with strong winds and possibly large hail and a tornado or two.
Additional scattered storms could accompany the weak surface front
that will move through late tonight.

Some low clouds are possible early Thursday but increasing west
southwest winds will mix them out by noon with mostly sunny skies
in the afternoon. Warm temperatures aloft will make for highs
around 10 degrees above normal in most places.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

A pretty typical early summer pattern setting up across the CONUS
with upper ridging located over the southwest CONUS/western
Atlantic and a general upper trough over east-central North
America. The jet stream appears to set-up over the northern tier
of states with periodic Pacific systems moving along the jet. The
main forecast challenge will be trying to time each of these
systems. Temperatures to start out above normal through Saturday,
cool to below normal into early next week, then slowly warm closer
to normal by the middle of next week.

Vertically-stacked upper low is forecast to slowly move east into
western Ontario Thursday night with a weak shortwave trough
pushing into the western Great Lakes. Models are also showing
another surge of gulf moisture streaming northeast as winds back
to the southwest once again. It appears that central/east-central
WI would need at least a small shower/thunderstorm chance after
midnight, while the north would remain dry. Under generally partly
cloudy skies, look for min temperatures to range from the middle
to upper 50s north-central WI, to the lower 60s across eastern WI.

Warm and somewhat humid conditions are expected to linger over
central/east-central WI on Friday with capes perhaps surpassing 1K
J/KG. The only question is whether there is a triggering mechanism
to kick off more showers/thunderstorms. The GFS hints at a mid-
level shortwave moving through the mean flow, thus cannot rule out
at least a chance of showers/thunderstorms. Max temperatures on
Friday to reach the upper 70s near Lake MI, lower to middle 80s
elsewhere.

Another weak shortwave trough is forecast by most of the models to
enter the western Great Lakes on Friday night and with a continued
southwest fetch of gulf moisture aimed at WI, additional small
chances for showers/thunderstorms will remain in the forecast.
Temperatures to remain on the mild side with middle to upper 50s
north-central, lower to middle 60s east-central WI. Models send a
weak frontal boundary into WI on Saturday and this feature would
be the trigger necessary to generate more showers/thunderstorms,
especially during the afternoon hours. More clouds/precipitation
chances would hinder temperatures with readings slipping into the
middle to upper 70s north-central/lakeshore, lower 80s south.

The best likelihood of seeing showers/thunderstorms should occur
Saturday night as a strong shortwave trough/accompanying surface
low and cold front sweep across the western Great Lakes. We will
have to watch these storms, especially Saturday evening before
instability begins to weaken. However, bulk shear values in the 35
to 50 knot range through the night could keep storms feisty well
into the night. While stronger lift/forcing exit the region on
Sunday, northeast WI to reside on the cooler/cyclonic side of this
system, thus with daytime heating, look for shower/thunderstorm
chances to continue through Sunday. Much cooler air mass to
overspread the area on Sunday with max temperatures around 70
degrees north-central, lower to middle 70s elsewhere.

Precipitation chances are expected to diminish Sunday evening with
the loss of daytime heating. Of course, the onset of daytime
heating on Monday could kick off at least a few showers or
thunderstorms. Temperatures on Monday will remain below normal
with only middle to upper 60s north-central, upper 60s near Lake
MI and lower 70s elsewhere. After a mostly dry Monday night,
models indicate the approach/passage of a shortwave trough/cold
front on Tuesday. While forcing/lift/instability are not as
pronounced as Saturday night's event, anticipate at least chance
pops will be needed across northeast WI for Tuesday. Max
temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer with most
locations in the 70-75 degree range.

High pressure is forecast to build into WI later Tuesday night
through Wednesday and appears to finally bring a dry period to the
extended forecast. Even with mixed sunshine, temperatures will not
warm much with readings a bit below normal.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

MVFR ceilings over northern Wisconsin will dissipate this
afternoon as a warm front moves north and increasing winds mix
out low level moisture.

Thunderstorms will move across the area from southwest to northeast
during the mid and late afternoon hours accompanied by gusty winds
and heavy rain. They should exit the area during the early evening.
Additional scattered thunderstorms are possible alter tonight as
a weak cold front moves through.

IFR ceilings and visibilities are possible late tonight and early
Thursday where winds become light and the ground is wet from
rain. Good flying weather is expected by noon Thursday.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......Kallas
AVIATION.......RDM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
221 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-151930-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
221 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms through midnight.
Damaging winds, large hail, heavy rainfall and a tornado or two
are possible.

Due to recent heavy rains, the Wisconsin River continues to flow
faster than usual with a few locations at or above flood stage.
Caution should be used if boating or fishing on the Wisconsin
River. Many other rivers across the region will also be rising,
with some possibly reaching flood stage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

A chance of thunderstorms will return for late this week and
the weekend, but severe storms do not appear likely.

Some rivers and streams will continue to be near or above flood
stage. Caution should be used near rapidly moving water.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-151930-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
221 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening. Some of
these storms will produce strong winds and hail. Areas of dense
fog are possible later tonight, as a warm and moist air flows
over the relatively cool waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

A chance of thunderstorms will return during the weekend.

RDM/Kallas

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
303 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 PM     TSTM WND GST     WAUTOMA                 44.06N 89.28W
06/14/2017  M59 MPH          WAUSHARA           WI   AWOS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
309 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND GST     WILD ROSE               44.18N 89.25W
06/14/2017  M65 MPH          WAUSHARA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0300 PM     HAIL             AMHERST                 44.45N 89.28W
06/14/2017  E0.50 INCH       PORTAGE            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
310 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     FLOOD            WILD ROSE               44.18N 89.25W
06/14/2017                   WAUSHARA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREET AND FIELD FLOODING AROUND WILD ROSE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
315 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WAUPACA                 44.34N 89.06W
06/14/2017                   WAUPACA            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN IN THE CITY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
321 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 PM     TSTM WND GST     SCANDINAVIA             44.46N 89.13W
06/14/2017  M60 MPH          WAUPACA            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EUREKA                  44.00N 88.84W
06/14/2017                   WINNEBAGO          WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW TREES DOWN.

0313 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW OSHKOSH            43.97N 88.59W
06/14/2017                   WINNEBAGO          WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW TREES DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
324 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 W KESHENA             44.87N 88.73W
06/14/2017                   MENOMINEE          WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            UPDATE TO EARLIER TORNADO REPORT. FUNNEL DID NOT TOUCH
            DOWN. NO DAMAGE REPORTED.

&&