Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Green Bay, WI

769 
WWUS53 KGRB 180219
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
919 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

WIC067-078-083-180229-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-170518T0245Z/
Menominee WI-Oconto WI-Langlade WI-
919 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MENOMINEE...NORTHERN OCONTO
AND SOUTHEASTERN LANGLADE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail and
gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for north central
and northeastern Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4492 8874 4494 8874 4494 8877 4507 8898
      4538 8860 4538 8850 4528 8831 4520 8831
      4520 8819 4511 8819 4511 8815 4485 8861
      4486 8863
TIME...MOT...LOC 0217Z 214DEG 46KT 4527 8854 

$$

EB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
857 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

New Information added to update section

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Severe risk is about to spread into east-central Wisconsin as
large, mature MCS races ENE into the area. The system produced
widespread wind damage over SW WI within the past few hours.
Extended WW233 to the lake, and to 06Z to cover the situation.
Primary risk will be of damaging winds, though there is still the
possibility of QLCS tornadoes.

UPDATE
Issued at 807 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Perhaps the severe threat for east-central Wisconsin is becoming
a little clearer. Although small cells were now developing south
of the main line moving through central Wisconsin, it appears the
main threat will be with the arrival of the QLCS racing NE out of
SW WI.

In addition, strong gradient winds due to mixing have been edging
closer to the southern part of the forecast area (G44 at FLD).
Main threat will be wind.

UPDATE
Issued at 708 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Severe threat continues to gradually evolve across the area.
Although it will be moving out of the strongest instability, the
line over central Wisconsin is likely to maintain its intensity as
it surges into north-central Wisconsin during the evening.

The specifics of the evolution of the severe threat in eastern
Wisconsin is a little more unclear. The line in central Wisconsin
could build southeast and merge with the small cluster of storms
now entering southeast Wisconsin. It is also possible it may take
until the QLCS racing northeast from Iowa arrives in the area later
this evening. But given the intense QG forcing (at least for May)
continuing to bear down on the area from the southwest (in
advance of intense negatively-tilted shortwave ejecting across
Iowa), it is likely convection will affect the area at some point.
Assuming storms develop over eastern Wisconsin, there appears to
be sufficient shear and instability for them to pose a severe
threat.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

A low pressure system, clearly seen spinning across the Missouri
Valley, will continue moving northeast towards northern Wisconsin
this afternoon and is forecast to be over the forecast area late
tonight and early Thursday morning. As this system tracks towards
the area instability will increase precipitously this afternoon
and this evening with forecast MUCAPEs of 2000 to 2500 J/kg. An
18Z KGRB RAOB sounding already shows 1100 J/kg of SBCAPE, which is
expected to rise as surface temperatures rise to around 80 this
afternoon. In addition to the instability 0-6 km bulk shear values
are expected to increase to around 50 knots. This setup points to
an increased severe weather potential for northeast Wisconsin, as
noted by the Slight Risk from the SPC convective outlook. The main
severe weather threat appears to be winds, as noted by the strong
50+ knots of wind starting as low as 8800 ft in the 18Z KGRB RAOB,
and 70 knots noted just above 20k ft agl. In addition to damaging
winds, large hail is possible with a fat CAPE profile in the hail
growth zone as well as tornadoes given the low level shear noted
in the low levels of the RAOB sounding. Models are indicating a
very long night in store for the forecast area as several rounds
of strong to severe storms track through the forecast area through
the overnight hours. Preliminary thoughts are there could be 3
rounds, however there could be more or less based on how the low
progresses towards the area tonight and how long the instability
can remain in place after sunset.

In addition to severe weather, flooding will be a concern across
north-central Wisconsin where several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms have already passed through yesterday night. However
the fast winds noted in the sounding will lead to fast moving
storms during this period, keeping the chances for training over
any given area rather low. Therefore will hold off on any flood
watches for this area at this time.

The storms will exit the area late tonight and Thursday morning as
the low moves through the area and a cold front brings a cooler,
more stable airmass to the region. Temperatures Thursday afternoon
are expected to fall behind the cold front despite being the
middle of May, a rare event for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Very cool conditions expected at the beginning of the period, then
temperatures will modify early next week but will remain below
normal for the latter half of May. Winds will gradually diminish
later Thursday with a frost or freeze expected north and west of
the Fox Valley. Conditions across the Fox Valley and lakeshore a
little more tricky as winds stay up even late at night. This will
more than likely limit the frost potential and keep temperatures
from 35 to 39 degrees. Highs on Friday will be very cool with
readings only reaching the middle to upper 50s. For Friday night,
clouds will be on the increase with chances of rain after
midnight.

Rain is expected on Saturday into Saturday night as the next
system moves across the region. The next chance of rain will be
next Tuesday and Wednesday. Below normal temperatures are expected
for much of the period.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 708 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Thunderstorms will be the main aviation forecast issue. Once those
pass through later tonight, expect low ceilings and some lower
visibilities to push into north-central Wisconsin later tonight.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE.........Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......Skowronski

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
208 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-181915-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
208 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across nearly all
of the forecast area. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes are possible. The afternoon and early evening hours have
the greatest potential for severe storms.

The thunderstorms will also produce heavy rain, especially across
far northern Wisconsin where local flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

A frost or freeze is likely north and west of the Fox Valley
Thursday night. Patchy frost is also possible across the Fox
Valley as well, but will depend if winds diminish late Thursday
night.

Thunderstorms are possible Saturday night but it is too early to
determine the severe weather threat at this time. There is also
the potential for heavy rain Saturday and Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested this afternoon and tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-181915-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
208 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Increasing south winds and building waves will lead to hazardous
conditions in the Lake Michigan waters. There is a also a chance
of severe thunderstorms this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

An abrupt wind shift from south to north will take place Thursday
during the morning or midday hours. Winds could gust to gale
force for a few hours from the north after the wind shift.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Saturday night. Winds and
waves hazardous to small craft are possible on Thursday.

Kurimski/Eckberg

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
805 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     HAIL             MARSHFIELD              44.66N 90.16W
05/17/2017  E0.50 INCH       WOOD               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

KURIMSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
812 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ATHENS                  45.03N 90.08W
05/17/2017                   MARATHON           WI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEMI TIPPED OVER IN ATHENS AROUND 708 PM. TIME ESTIMATED
            BASED ON RADAR.

&&

ECKBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
834 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 PM     HAIL             4 E WAUPACA             44.34N 88.98W
05/17/2017  M1.00 INCH       WAUPACA            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ALSO NOTED.

&&

KLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
836 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ANTIGO                  45.15N 89.15W
05/17/2017                   LANGLADE           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN IN THE CITY OF ANTIGO.

0812 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELCHO                   45.43N 89.18W
05/17/2017                   LANGLADE           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN IN ELCHO. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

ECKBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
849 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WOODBORO                45.59N 89.55W
05/17/2017                   ONEIDA             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON
            RADAR.

0816 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SUGAR CAMP              45.78N 89.30W
05/17/2017                   ONEIDA             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

ECKBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
902 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N BOULDER JUNCTION    46.14N 89.63W
05/17/2017                   VILAS              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS THAT TOOK OUT SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREE LIMBS.
            ALSO HEAVY RAIN.

&&

KLB