Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
137 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 317 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Forecast issues will be thunderstorm/severe weather chances through
tonight. Satellite showing an amplified pattern from the Pacific to
along the west coast of North America. After that the flow flattens
out with several shortwave troughs within that flow. Stalled front
is draped across the area at this time.

Not a lot of time to take a look at everything this morning due to
ongoing severe weather. So concentrated on the first 24 hours.

Today/tonight...High resolution models and large scale models show a
cluster of thunderstorms and a convectively induced 700 mb
circulation over the far eastern portion of the area through mid
morning. So will hold on to low pops through that time. Will
probably be trimming off or ending most of the severe thunderstorm
watch before the end of the shift.

Tricky forecast through this period. Pretty sure that there will be
lingering affects from this morning convection. Thinking the
synoptic front will be south of the area. Also will probably have
some outflow boundaries across the area but just not sure where. Am
expecting drying and subsidence behind this mornings activity to
keep most of the day dry until very late this afternoon.

Left front quadrant remains over the southern portion of the area
through the morning. That left front quadrant continues over the
southern half of the area through the afternoon. During the night,
most of the output develops a coupled jet structure over the area
during the evening and looks to remain through the rest of the night.

Models want to develop thunderstorms/convectively induced
circulation center in the southwest portion later this afternoon.
They then move thunderstorms and mcv mostly across the southern
portion of the area during the evening. Then from late in the
evening into the overnight hours, a rather strong northwest flow
shortwave will move across the area. This in conjunction with the
jet lift should increase coverage or bring in a second wave. Am
concerned that the models may be underdoing the overnight
convection.

Friday/Friday night...Because of the strong shortwave and coupled
jet lift, raised pops in the morning a little over what the builder
gave me. Rainfall should end by late morning. Much cooler
temperatures expected. May need to lower mins a little more.

Saturday/Saturday night...Spent very little time on this period and
kept what the builder gave me.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 137 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Flow aloft becomes northwesterly Friday night as a ridge builds over
the southwestern CONUS. High pressure moves east onto the region,
resulting in increased temperatures on Saturday as well as dry
weather. Models hint at a quick shot at precipitation overnight on
Saturday for the southern portion of the forecast area.

The next shortwave set to impact the area arrives on Sunday,
generating shower and thunderstorm chances in the afternoon and
evening. The shortwave strengthens a lee trough, with southerly
winds drawing moisture north. The increasing moisture along with
decent shear and instability should be enough for a few severe
thunderstorms. Will continue to monitor. Precipitation exits the
region overnight.

A somewhat active pattern continues into next week with the upper
ridge expanding northeast and some moisture filtering northward
underneath. A similar setup to Sunday will develop on Monday.
However, in addition to this, a disturbance traverses the Rockies
and advances across the area. This generates shower and thunderstorm
chances again in the afternoon and evening hours. Dry conditions are
anticipated on Tuesday as the system moves east.

Wednesday and Thursday: The upper ridge over the southwestern
portion of the country amplifies, expanding north and east, and flow
aloft remains from the north northwest during this period on the
eastern side of the high pressure. Guidance differs in the strength
and position of the ridge. Kept slight to low chance PoPs each
afternoon and evening as disturbances work their way through the
flow.

High temperatures during the period mainly range within the mid 80s
to mid 90s across the region. Low temperatures stay in the 50s and
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

KGLD, vfr conditions expected through the period. There will be a
one to two hour window (23z-01z) where strong to severe
thunderstorms producing wind gusts in excess of 50kts, large hail
and heavy rainfall could impact the terminal. If this happens mvfr
conditions likely. Otherwise precipitation coverage too low to
include in the forecast. Winds generally from the north to
northeast at speeds 11kts or less.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. Isolated
thunderstorms possible from taf issuance through about 21z but
right now confidence too low to include in forecast. Rest of the
forecast looks to be dry. Winds gusting to 25kts or so from 21z-
00z then north to northwest 10kts or less.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1015 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-301200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1015 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017 /1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Strong and severe thunderstorms are expected after 3 PM MDT (4 PM
CDT) generally along and south of Interstate 70. Wind gusts over 70
mph producing blowing dust and reduced visibilities along with
large hail will be the primary threats. Very heavy rainfall is also
possible for a short period of time which could cause sharply reduced
visibilities and possible flooding of poor drainage and low lying
areas. The severe weather threat should be over by 9 PM MDT (10 PM
CDT).

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

On Sunday afternoon and night, there will be a chance of
thunderstorms across the entire area. Some of these storms could
become severe.

On Tuesday afternoon and night, isolated thunderstorms are expected
across east central Colorado. A few of these storms could become
severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed after 3 PM MDT (4 PM CDT).

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
950 AM MDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 SSE WESKAN            38.82N 101.94W
06/29/2017  M76 MPH          WALLACE            KS   MESONET

&&

HILL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
249 PM MDT THU JUN 29 2017

COZ091-292100-
Kit Carson County CO-
249 PM MDT THU JUN 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

At 249 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southeast of Flagler, moving east at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Flagler and Seibert.

This includes Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 392 and
408.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

LAT...LON 3918 10313 3933 10312 3936 10280 3916 10283
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 272DEG 17KT 3924 10303

Lundquist