Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
509 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017

In addition to the high precipitable water values across the area
that could lead to localized heavy precipitation and flash flooding
this evening and overnight, there is a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and again on Thursday with
large hail and damaging winds the primary threats.

A cold front sags south across the region overnight as a short wave
trough emerges out of central Colorado this evening and moves across
the forecast region into southeast Nebraska by late afternoon on
Thursday.

Temperatures will cool substantially behind the front with highs
only in the 80s across the forecast area on Thursday. Dewpoints
remain fairly high with readings in the lower to mid 60s.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop across
eastern Colorado this afternoon and are expected to become more
numerous and move across the remainder of northwest KS and southwest
NE this evening. Widespread 1" rainfall is possible as well as
localized amounts of 3+ inches with some of the stronger storms that
may also train over the same area.  Scattered storms are expected to
continue through the overnight hours and redevelop across the region
on Thursday with an additional 1/4 to 1/2 inch rainfall expected
during the day mainly along and north of Interstate 70.

A flash flood watch was considered for areas mainly across
eastern Colorado and the eastern Colorado border region given the
high precipitable water and potential for localized heavy
rainfall, but have held off for now given the potential for the
area of storms to progress well across the forecast area. However,
if storms appear to be training over the same areas, a watch, or
individual flash flood warnings may have to be considered.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Thursday night-Saturday: With frontal boundary still lingering in
the area, chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist
areawide through the overnight hours Saturday. Best chance for
precipitation will be Thursday night where there will be a Marginal
Risk for severe weather. Main severe threats will be damaging winds
and hail. Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal for
the period.

Sunday-Wednesday: Upper level ridging dominates the weather for this
period. Dry, hot conditions are expected each day, with high
temperatures well above normal. GFS MOS guidance is still showing
temperatures near or above 100 degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday for
portions of the eastern CWA. Increased high temperatures a few
degrees over what the blend showed for those days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 509 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017

For KGLD...Mainly VFR conditions thru the forecast period with
BKN060-200 giving way to BKN035 after 18z Thursday. From 12z-18z
though OVC015 possible. Showers and thunderstorms will be in the
vicinity and could affect the area...especially 02z-09z.
Winds...meandering from NNE to ENE 10-15kts...with gusts to 25kts
thru 02z Thursday.

For KMCK...Mainly VFR conditions thru the forecast period with
BKN-OVC090-200 giving way to BKN050 after 17z Thursday. From
12z-17z though OVC025 possible. VCTS/VCSH thru 12z Thursday.
Winds...meandering from NNE to ENE 10-15kts with gusts to 25kts
thru 0430z Thursday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...JN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1037 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-131645-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1037 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017 /1137 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

There is a marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms across
eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas this afternoon and evening.
Stronger storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
large hail.

Tonight, there is a marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall
and flash flooding in northeast Colorado and adjacent areas of
northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. Locally heavy rainfall of
up to 1 to 3 inches will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

There is a marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
420 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

COZ091-122245-
Kit Carson County CO-
420 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY
UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 420 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Arriba, or 10 miles southwest of Flagler, moving
east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Flagler.

This includes Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 391 and
402.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3914 10316 3917 10315 3931 10315 3928 10292
      3904 10298 3904 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 285DEG 15KT 3917 10317

DR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
432 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

COZ090-091-122245-
Kit Carson County CO-Yuma County CO-
432 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN YUMA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 432 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles southeast of Wray to 16 miles west of
Bonny Reservoir. These storms were nearly stationary.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Wray, Laird, Beecher Island, Idalia and Vernon.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 205 and 210, and
between mile markers 212 and 247.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3995 10205 3954 10220 3953 10262 4013 10226
      4014 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 292DEG 1KT 3997 10215 3958 10247

DR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
447 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

COZ090-091-122300-
Kit Carson County CO-Yuma County CO-
447 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL YUMA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

At 447 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles west of Bonny Reservoir. This storm was nearly stationary.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central Yuma
and north central Kit Carson Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3941 10268 3954 10270 3969 10238 3954 10229
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 293DEG 1KT 3956 10247

DR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
456 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

COZ090-122315-
Yuma County CO-
456 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN YUMA COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM MDT...

At 455 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Wray, moving north at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Vernon and Beecher Island.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 222 and 241.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3975 10231 3987 10245 4006 10225 3989 10207
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 187DEG 11KT 3991 10228

DR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
559 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

KSZ029-122330-
Gove KS-
559 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GOVE COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

At 559 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pendennis, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Gove
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10039 3884 10036 3883 10015 3870 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 214DEG 10KT 3866 10033

DR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
510 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

COZ090-091-130000-
Kit Carson County CO-Yuma County CO-
510 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN YUMA AND CENTRAL KIT
CARSON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM MDT...

At 510 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 15 miles south of Eckley to 12 miles north of
Stratton to 9 miles south of Seibert. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Stratton, Seibert, Bethune, Vona, Joes, Abarr and Kirk.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 397 and 429.
 Highway 385 between mile markers 212 and 234.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 10288 3957 10280 3973 10280 3992 10271
      3996 10210 3907 10252 3911 10310
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 272DEG 13KT 3989 10251 3949 10260 3916 10287

DR