Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Goodland, KS

599 
WWUS53 KGLD 122255
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
455 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

COC125-122305-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0210.000000T0000Z-170712T2330Z/
Yuma CO-
455 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN YUMA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail, gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3975 10231 3987 10245 4006 10225 3989 10207
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 188DEG 11KT 3991 10228 

$$

DR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
254 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017

In addition to the high precipitable water values across the area
that could lead to localized heavy precipitation and flash flooding
this evening and overnight, there is a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and again on Thursday with
large hail and damaging winds the primary threats.

A cold front sags south across the region overnight as a short wave
trough emerges out of central Colorado this evening and moves across
the forecast region into southeast Nebraska by late afternoon on
Thursday.

Temperatures will cool substantially behind the front with highs
only in the 80s across the forecast area on Thursday. Dewpoints
remain fairly high with readings in the lower to mid 60s.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop across
eastern Colorado this afternoon and are expected to become more
numerous and move across the remainder of northwest KS and southwest
NE this evening. Widespread 1" rainfall is possible as well as
localized amounts of 3+ inches with some of the stronger storms that
may also train over the same area.  Scattered storms are expected to
continue through the overnight hours and redevelop across the region
on Thursday with an additional 1/4 to 1/2 inch rainfall expected
during the day mainly along and north of Interstate 70.

A flash flood watch was considered for areas mainly across
eastern Colorado and the eastern Colorado border region given the
high precipitable water and potential for localized heavy
rainfall, but have held off for now given the potential for the
area of storms to progress well across the forecast area. However,
if storms appear to be training over the same areas, a watch, or
individual flash flood warnings may have to be considered.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Thursday night-Saturday: With frontal boundary still lingering in
the area, chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist
areawide through the overnight hours Saturday. Best chance for
precipitation will be Thursday night where there will be a Marginal
Risk for severe weather. Main severe threats will be damaging winds
and hail. Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal for
the period.

Sunday-Wednesday: Upper level ridging dominates the weather for this
period. Dry, hot conditions are expected each day, with high
temperatures well above normal. GFS MOS guidance is still showing
temperatures near or above 100 degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday for
portions of the eastern CWA. Increased high temperatures a few
degrees over what the blend showed for those days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017

For both KMCK and KGLD, winds have become northerly and
northeasterly behind a cold front and should persist from that
direction for the period. Showers and thunderstorms will develop
across the area late this afternoon and persist through the
overnight. Thunderstorms could produce strong wind gusts and hail
along with some lower ceilings, but the greatest risk will be
heavy rainfall, especially at KGLD. VFR conditions should prevail
through the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...SME

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1037 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-131645-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1037 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017 /1137 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

There is a marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms across
eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas this afternoon and evening.
Stronger storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
large hail.

Tonight, there is a marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall
and flash flooding in northeast Colorado and adjacent areas of
northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. Locally heavy rainfall of
up to 1 to 3 inches will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

There is a marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
321 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

COZ090-122130-
Yuma County CO-
321 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN YUMA COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM MDT...

At 321 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Bonny Reservoir. This storm was nearly stationary.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Idalia.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 212 and 221.

LAT...LON 3964 10229 3975 10234 3984 10208 3965 10207
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 262DEG 1KT 3971 10223

DR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
332 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

COZ090-122145-
Yuma County CO-
332 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN YUMA COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM MDT...

At 332 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northwest of Bonny Reservoir, moving east at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hale and Idalia.

This includes Highway 385 near mile marker 210, and between mile
markers 212 and 222.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3962 10208 3960 10237 3976 10239 3983 10207
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 268DEG 5KT 3969 10223

DR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
416 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

COZ090-091-122230-
Kit Carson County CO-Yuma County CO-
416 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN YUMA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

At 415 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Wray to 13 miles west of
Bonny Reservoir. These storms were nearly stationary.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Wray, Bonny Reservoir, Hale, Beecher Island, Laird, Idalia and
Vernon.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 204 and 244.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3975 10205 3952 10219 3954 10258 4008 10224
      4012 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 262DEG 4KT 4002 10212 3959 10243

DR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
420 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

COZ091-122245-
Kit Carson County CO-
420 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY
UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 420 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Arriba, or 10 miles southwest of Flagler, moving
east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Flagler.

This includes Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 391 and
402.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3914 10316 3917 10315 3931 10315 3928 10292
      3904 10298 3904 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 285DEG 15KT 3917 10317

DR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
432 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

COZ090-091-122245-
Kit Carson County CO-Yuma County CO-
432 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN YUMA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 432 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles southeast of Wray to 16 miles west of
Bonny Reservoir. These storms were nearly stationary.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Wray, Laird, Beecher Island, Idalia and Vernon.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 205 and 210, and
between mile markers 212 and 247.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3995 10205 3954 10220 3953 10262 4013 10226
      4014 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 292DEG 1KT 3997 10215 3958 10247

DR