Severe Thunderstorm Warning 282, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
335 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017

It's been a cool, dreary day across much of the CWA, thanks to
stubborn low level stratus and occasional showers/drizzle. Aloft,
the area remains under southwesterly flow, set up between high
pressure extending north through the eastern CONUS and low
pressure spinning over the northern Rockies. Satellite imagery
shows a piece of shortwave energy swinging south of the main upper
low out of the desert SW, which will be affecting us through the
short term period. At the surface, there hasn't been much movement
with the main frontal boundary, which extends from wrn MN through
our CWA and into swrn KS. This has kept winds on the light and
variable (to easterly) side today, while south of the front has
been affected by gusty southerly winds. Between the clouds and the
front, there has been quite a temperature gradient across the
CWA, with LXN at 59 and HJH at 80.

Looking at the rest of today and into tonight, showers/storms are
expected to develop along the surface boundary, expanding in
coverage this evening/overnight as that upper level shortwave
swings through. Activity along the front as well as to the north
of it is expected to expand, with models continuing to show a
50-60kt LLJ nosing into the area. The potential for strong/severe
weather remains, mainly late this afternoon/evening. Instability
doesn't look to be quite as high as yesterday, but the SPC Meso
page still shows 1000-2000 j/kg of MUCAPE across the ESE half of
the CWA, and deeper layer shear remains 40+kts. Hail/wind/heavy
rain remain the primary threats.

As we get into tomorrow, the best precipitation chances look to
come during the morning hours, waning with time as the LLJ
tapers off. Activity ends from NW to SE, did keep some 20-30 PoPs
in the southeastern half of the CWA, but some models suggest those
PoPs are lingering too long and too far NW. NNW winds are
expected across the area in the wake of the sfc front pushing
through, with temps forecast to be below normal, mid 60s for the
majority of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017

By the time we get to Wednesday morning, models are in decent
agreement showing the system that has been spinning over the
northern Rockies Mon/Tues finally pushing east through MN and
weakening. The main feature of interest becomes the closed low
that developed on Tuesday, located roughly over northern NV by
12Z Wednesday. Through the end of the work week, this system will
keep the unsettled weather pattern in place across the area,
bringing precipitation chances. Periodic shortwave disturbances
will be ejected out ahead of the main low Wed/Thurs, before the
main system finally swings through Fri/Fri night. At the surface,
that frontal boundary meanders north and south around the area,
not making its final push through until the upper system does.
This will aid in lift across the CWA, especially in the late
evening/overnight hours when the LLJ is shown by models to ramp
up. Models show the brunt of the instability does push south of
the CWA on Wed, before coming back north for Thur/Fri. Confidence
in temperatures Wed-Fri is not high due to uncertainties with
precipitation timing and frontal placement, at this point the
forecast has lower-mid 60s for Wed, 60s- 70s for Thur/Fri.

Looking to the upcoming weekend/Mon, the forecast is currently
dry. At this point confidence in that is higher for Sat than
Sun/Mon. Upper level northwesterly flow is expected to set up on
Saturday in the wake of this latest system, but then models
diverge some with time. The GFS is drier, keeping upper flow
zonal, the ECMWF tries to bring another trough axis into the area,
but doesn't have a lot of moisture to work with. Will see how
models trend in the coming days. 70s currently forecast for most
locations for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017

Sub-VFR conditions and precipitation chances will continue to
affect the terminal areas through this TAF period. The main
frontal boundary remains draped through the heart of the CWA,
making the wind forecast a bit tricky, but kept things variable
this afternoon. This evening, at least briefly, LLWS will be a
concern as the LLJ ramps up, before the surface boundary swings
through. There will be at least small chances of precipitation
through mid afternoon, with chances continuing to pick up through
the evening/overnight. Kept the TAF dry post 12Z tomorrow, but
confidence in that isn't high.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ADP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
535 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
032245-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
535 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across a large
portion of the forecast area tonight. There is the potential for
some storms to be strong or severe...with hail near the size of
half dollars and wind gusts near 60 mph being the primary
threats. Heavy rainfall will also be possible, and may result in
localized flooding. In addition...an isolated tornado or two will
be possible during the evening hours across portions of north
central Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Periodic thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast through the
remainder of the work week. Severe weather is not anticipated
through Wednesday, but it is too early at this point to
confidently assess the potential for Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this evening. Any reports
of hail...strong thunderstorm wind gusts...or funnel clouds are
always appreciated.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Rossi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
813 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2017

NEZ062-063-075-076-030200-
Adams NE-Hamilton NE-Hall NE-Clay NE-
813 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CLAY...NORTHEASTERN
ADAMS...SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON AND SOUTHEASTERN HALL COUNTIES UNTIL
900 PM CDT...

At 812 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hastings, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hastings, Doniphan, Juniata, Giltner, Trumbull, Inland and Hansen.

This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 315 and 321.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4045 9835 4061 9858 4087 9828 4071 9804
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 220DEG 31KT 4055 9843

Rossi

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
814 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     HAIL             ROSELAND                40.47N 98.56W
10/02/2017  E0.25 INCH       ADAMS              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO DIME TIME SIZED HAIL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
821 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     HAIL             ROSELAND                40.47N 98.56W
10/02/2017  E0.50 INCH       ADAMS              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO DIME TIME SIZED HAIL.

&&

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