Severe Thunderstorm Warning 276, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
335 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017

It's been a cool, dreary day across much of the CWA, thanks to
stubborn low level stratus and occasional showers/drizzle. Aloft,
the area remains under southwesterly flow, set up between high
pressure extending north through the eastern CONUS and low
pressure spinning over the northern Rockies. Satellite imagery
shows a piece of shortwave energy swinging south of the main upper
low out of the desert SW, which will be affecting us through the
short term period. At the surface, there hasn't been much movement
with the main frontal boundary, which extends from wrn MN through
our CWA and into swrn KS. This has kept winds on the light and
variable (to easterly) side today, while south of the front has
been affected by gusty southerly winds. Between the clouds and the
front, there has been quite a temperature gradient across the
CWA, with LXN at 59 and HJH at 80.

Looking at the rest of today and into tonight, showers/storms are
expected to develop along the surface boundary, expanding in
coverage this evening/overnight as that upper level shortwave
swings through. Activity along the front as well as to the north
of it is expected to expand, with models continuing to show a
50-60kt LLJ nosing into the area. The potential for strong/severe
weather remains, mainly late this afternoon/evening. Instability
doesn't look to be quite as high as yesterday, but the SPC Meso
page still shows 1000-2000 j/kg of MUCAPE across the ESE half of
the CWA, and deeper layer shear remains 40+kts. Hail/wind/heavy
rain remain the primary threats.

As we get into tomorrow, the best precipitation chances look to
come during the morning hours, waning with time as the LLJ
tapers off. Activity ends from NW to SE, did keep some 20-30 PoPs
in the southeastern half of the CWA, but some models suggest those
PoPs are lingering too long and too far NW. NNW winds are
expected across the area in the wake of the sfc front pushing
through, with temps forecast to be below normal, mid 60s for the
majority of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017

By the time we get to Wednesday morning, models are in decent
agreement showing the system that has been spinning over the
northern Rockies Mon/Tues finally pushing east through MN and
weakening. The main feature of interest becomes the closed low
that developed on Tuesday, located roughly over northern NV by
12Z Wednesday. Through the end of the work week, this system will
keep the unsettled weather pattern in place across the area,
bringing precipitation chances. Periodic shortwave disturbances
will be ejected out ahead of the main low Wed/Thurs, before the
main system finally swings through Fri/Fri night. At the surface,
that frontal boundary meanders north and south around the area,
not making its final push through until the upper system does.
This will aid in lift across the CWA, especially in the late
evening/overnight hours when the LLJ is shown by models to ramp
up. Models show the brunt of the instability does push south of
the CWA on Wed, before coming back north for Thur/Fri. Confidence
in temperatures Wed-Fri is not high due to uncertainties with
precipitation timing and frontal placement, at this point the
forecast has lower-mid 60s for Wed, 60s- 70s for Thur/Fri.

Looking to the upcoming weekend/Mon, the forecast is currently
dry. At this point confidence in that is higher for Sat than
Sun/Mon. Upper level northwesterly flow is expected to set up on
Saturday in the wake of this latest system, but then models
diverge some with time. The GFS is drier, keeping upper flow
zonal, the ECMWF tries to bring another trough axis into the area,
but doesn't have a lot of moisture to work with. Will see how
models trend in the coming days. 70s currently forecast for most
locations for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017

Sub-VFR conditions and precipitation chances will continue to
affect the terminal areas through this TAF period. The main
frontal boundary remains draped through the heart of the CWA,
making the wind forecast a bit tricky, but kept things variable
this afternoon. This evening, at least briefly, LLWS will be a
concern as the LLJ ramps up, before the surface boundary swings
through. There will be at least small chances of precipitation
through mid afternoon, with chances continuing to pick up through
the evening/overnight. Kept the TAF dry post 12Z tomorrow, but
confidence in that isn't high.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ADP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
535 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
032245-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
535 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across a large
portion of the forecast area tonight. There is the potential for
some storms to be strong or severe...with hail near the size of
half dollars and wind gusts near 60 mph being the primary
threats. Heavy rainfall will also be possible, and may result in
localized flooding. In addition...an isolated tornado or two will
be possible during the evening hours across portions of north
central Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Periodic thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast through the
remainder of the work week. Severe weather is not anticipated
through Wednesday, but it is too early at this point to
confidently assess the potential for Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this evening. Any reports
of hail...strong thunderstorm wind gusts...or funnel clouds are
always appreciated.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Rossi

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
356 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     HAIL             6 SSE LOGAN             39.58N 99.52W
10/01/2017  E1.75 INCH       PHILLIPS           KS   PUBLIC

            QUARTERS TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL.

0657 PM     TORNADO          7 NNW WEBSTER STATE PAR 39.49N 99.52W
10/01/2017                   ROOKS              KS   STORM CHASER

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN OF A SMALL ROPE TORNADO.

0659 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 N WEBSTER STATE PARK  39.46N 99.45W
10/01/2017                   ROOKS              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VIA SPOTTER NETWORK.

0731 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 S KIRWIN              39.62N 99.12W
10/01/2017  E50 MPH          PHILLIPS           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EST WINDS OF 40 TO 50MPH.

0740 PM     HAIL             AGRA                    39.76N 99.13W
10/01/2017  E2.75 INCH       PHILLIPS           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0749 PM     HAIL             KENSINGTON              39.77N 99.03W
10/01/2017  E1.75 INCH       SMITH              KS   STORM CHASER

            FROM TWITTER.

0750 PM     HAIL             KENSINGTON              39.77N 99.03W
10/01/2017  M2.00 INCH       SMITH              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PING PONG BALL TO EGG SIZED HAIL.

0753 PM     HAIL             4 WNW KIRWIN            39.68N 99.20W
10/01/2017  E1.75 INCH       PHILLIPS           KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HAIL COVERING ROAD AND IN DITCHES. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0755 PM     HAIL             5 E GLADE               39.68N 99.22W
10/01/2017  E1.00 INCH       PHILLIPS           KS   PUBLIC

            5 EAST OF GLADE DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL
            FELL AND HAS COVERED HWY-9 WITH 1.5 INCHES
            OF HAIL.

0756 PM     HAIL             2 ESE GLADE             39.68N 99.28W
10/01/2017  E1.25 INCH       PHILLIPS           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COVERING THE GROUND.

0759 PM     HAIL             AGRA                    39.76N 99.12W
10/01/2017  E1.25 INCH       PHILLIPS           KS   PUBLIC

            PICTURE OF HAIL POSTED ON TWITTER.

0848 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE JOHNSON LAKE      40.69N 99.83W
10/01/2017                   GOSPER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CORRECTED. 2" TREE LIMBS DOWN. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. PEA SIZE HAIL COVERED
            GROUND AS WELL.

0855 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNE JOHNSON LAKE      40.73N 99.83W
10/01/2017                   DAWSON             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DELAYED DAMAGE REPORT. SCATTERED IRRIGATION
            PIPES AND LARGE TREE BRANCHES BROKEN, BUT NO
            ESTIMATE OF SIZE. A ROOF SECTION FROM A
            GRAIN BIN WAS ALSO BLOWN OFF. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

0855 PM     HAIL             2 S KEARNEY             40.67N 99.09W
10/01/2017  E0.75 INCH       BUFFALO            NE   PUBLIC

            VIA TWITTER.

0901 PM     HAIL             1 E LEXINGTON           40.78N 99.73W
10/01/2017  M0.50 INCH       DAWSON             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL FOR LAST 2 MIN.

0903 PM     HAIL             3 N OVERTON             40.78N 99.54W
10/01/2017  E1.00 INCH       DAWSON             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND ESTIMATED 40 MPH
            WINDS. JUST HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY.

0910 PM     HAIL             LEXINGTON               40.78N 99.74W
10/01/2017  M0.88 INCH       DAWSON             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL. EST WIND GUSTS TO
            35MPH.

0911 PM     HAIL             8 S ELWOOD              40.48N 99.89W
10/01/2017  E0.50 INCH       GOSPER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0915 PM     HAIL             2 SW GUIDE ROCK         40.05N 98.35W
10/01/2017  E1.00 INCH       WEBSTER            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0920 PM     HAIL             OVERTON                 40.74N 99.55W
10/01/2017  M1.00 INCH       DAWSON             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND SPOTTER EST
            WING GUSTS OF 50 TO 60MPH.

0925 PM     HAIL             5 SW BERTRAND           40.47N 99.69W
10/01/2017  E1.00 INCH       GOSPER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0928 PM     HAIL             ELM CREEK               40.72N 99.37W
10/01/2017  E0.88 INCH       BUFFALO            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0929 PM     HAIL             2 S ELM CREEK           40.69N 99.38W
10/01/2017  E0.88 INCH       BUFFALO            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT THE INTERSECTION OF I-80 AND HWY 183.

0936 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S ELM CREEK           40.67N 99.38W
10/01/2017  E50 MPH          BUFFALO            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS CURRENTLY.

1005 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WSW SHELTON           40.76N 98.79W
10/01/2017  E50 MPH          BUFFALO            NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA SIZE HAIL.

1038 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NE GRAND ISLAND       40.97N 98.31W
10/01/2017  M55 MPH          HALL               NE   ASOS

            ASOS STATION GRI, GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
607 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2017

KSZ006-007-018-019-022345-
Jewell KS-Smith KS-Osborne KS-Mitchell KS-
607 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL...
SOUTHWESTERN JEWELL...SOUTHEASTERN SMITH AND OSBORNE COUNTIES UNTIL
645 PM CDT...

At 607 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Osborne, or 34 miles north of Russell, moving north at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Osborne, Downs, Cawker City, Natoma, Gaylord, Alton, Portis, Ionia
and Harlan.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for north central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3916 9905 3972 9887 3973 9821 3913 9871
      3913 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 202DEG 32KT 3939 9876

Rossi

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
730 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             1 W MACON               40.21N 98.97W
10/02/2017  E1.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL, HEAVY RAIN
            ALSO.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
731 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND GST     BURR OAK                39.88N 98.30W
10/02/2017  E60 MPH          JEWELL             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            60 MPH PLUS WIND GUSTS LASTED ABOUT 10
            MINUTES FROM 7:00-7:10 PM. ALSO MEASURE
            0.62" OF RAIN IN APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.

&&

SR