Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
308 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Today should be the last day of the heat wave. I didn't make any
changes to the heat advisory or heat warning. A weak upper-level
disturbance has continued to develop scattered showers and
thunderstorms over central Nebraska.

A weak cold front is located across northern Kansas, as evidenced
by a line of cumulus from Stockton to Beloit. Thunderstorms
should develop in this vicinity within the next few hours. Short-
term RAP soundings show 1000-2000J of CAPE and 30 kts of bulk
shear in this vicinity, so an isolated severe storm isn't out of
the question. This activity should continue to gradually shift
south with the front tonight.

Sunday should remain dry and cooler as high pressure builds into
the area. Highs are expected to "only" be in the low 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Early next week, mostly dry weather is expected through Tuesday,
with daily high temperatures gradually rebounding back into the
middle and upper 90s.

Chances for thunderstorms return to the forecast Wednesday as a
large upper low tracks across Canada, pushing a front through the
Great Plains.

As has been the case several times this summer, this front looks
like it will stall out in our vicinity, giving us a potential for
isolated thunderstorms Thursday and even into Friday, primarily
across Kansas and far southern Nebraska. Right now, we're only
looking at high temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s through
this stretch.

Late Friday into Saturday, both the GFS and the ECMWF show the
western ridge amplifying a bit, which should limit precipitation
chances and potentially give us another round of heat as it shifts
eastward early into the following week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Showers have moved east of the terminals for now, but a weak mid-
level disturbance continues to develop showers with a few rumbles
of thunder across central and west-central Nebraska.

I continued a mention of VCTS for a short period later this
afternoon as short-term models move this activity towards the
area. That said, the most robust thunderstorms should stay along
and near the cold front across northern Kansas...well to the south
of GRI and EAR.

Otherwise, northeasterly winds will become light and variable
tonight and will likely remain less than 10kts tomorrow as well.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ077-086-087.

KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005-006-017.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ007-
     018-019.

&&

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
207 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
231200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
207 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

An Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory remain in effect,
mainly long and southeast of a Geneva, NE to Phillipsburg, KS line
until 7pm this evening. Heat indices will generally be between
100 and 107 in this area.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the entire area for
the rest of the afternoon into the evening.

A few thunderstorms could be strong to severe along and south of
the state line. Threats include hail up to the size of quarters
and wind gusts up to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Chances for thunderstorms return to the area late overnight
Tuesday into Wednesday and will continue off and on through
Friday. The most likely timeframe for thunderstorms appears to be
Wednesday and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening,
mainly across northern Kansas.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Mangels

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