Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Glasgow, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
259 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Thu...
Upper level low pressure system over southern Saskatchewan will
continue to aid isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
into the evening hours, diminishing after midnight.

Wednesday: High pressure ridge begins to rebuild over the region
with warming MAX temps and decreasing Min RH values.

Thursday: High pressure strengthens over the region with Max
temps back into the mid 90s to lower 100s and RH values falling
back into the teens. tc

.LONG TERM...Thu night through Tue...

Going forecast was just blended with the 12z guidance sans the
ECMWF. Mainly hot and dry weather expected with a break coming
about Tuesday when the max temperatures are expected to drop back
into the lower 90s most places (from near 100 Sunday).

Models continue to disagree on showers behind the cold front next
week. Hopefully, this will materialize for some needed rainfall
over the next several days. TFJ

Previous Discussion...
The long term period begins Wednesday night and Thursday with the
shortwave trough pushing further downstream while a strong upper
level ridge once again becomes established across the western U.S.
Expect a return to hot and dry weather conditions.

The upper ridge only strengthens through the end of the week and
persists right on through at least the first part of the weekend.
During this time forecast highs will be in the 90s and low 100s
each day with little, if any measurable rainfall.

Latest 00z models continue to differ some on evolution of the
pattern late in the weekend and early next week. The 00z ECMWF has
the ridge axis sliding east of the forecast area into the Dakotas
with warm upper level southwest flow aloft on the backside while
a cold front approaches for forecast area. The GFS keeps the ridge
parked over the western U.S. right on through the period, though
does introduce some flattening late in the weekend and early next
week, keeping Montana on the northern periphery and becoming
influenced more by embedded shortwaves in the flow which could
generate chances for showers and thunderstorms. The bottom line is
that a return to hot and dry conditions is in the cards for the
second half of this week and into the weekend, but some
uncertainty exists late in the weekend and early next week due to
increasing model solution differences. Maliawco

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR, but possible MVFR late tonight.

Another cold front will drop in from the north tonight bringing
low clouds to KGGW...KOLF...and KSDY late tonight/early Wednesday.

Winds: NW today at 10-20 kts this afternoon will turn clockwise to
the north and diminish this evening to less than 10 kts. Continued
light winds are expected Wednesday. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
302 AM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017

MTZ016>027-059>062-120915-
Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-
Daniels-Sheridan-Western Roosevelt-Petroleum-Garfield-McCone-
Richland-Dawson-Prairie-Wibaux-Northern Phillips-
Southwest Phillips-Northern Valley-Eastern Roosevelt-
302 AM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Montana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather Today and
Tonight is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Hot temperatures with highs in the 90s to near 100 return on
Thursday and will continue through the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
706 PM MDT TUE JUL 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             13 E HAXBY              47.80N 106.16W
07/02/2017  E0.50 INCH       MCCONE             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL COVERING GROUND.

&&

RMORGAN

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