Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Glasgow, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
259 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Thu...
Upper level low pressure system over southern Saskatchewan will
continue to aid isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
into the evening hours, diminishing after midnight.

Wednesday: High pressure ridge begins to rebuild over the region
with warming MAX temps and decreasing Min RH values.

Thursday: High pressure strengthens over the region with Max
temps back into the mid 90s to lower 100s and RH values falling
back into the teens. tc

.LONG TERM...Thu night through Tue...

Going forecast was just blended with the 12z guidance sans the
ECMWF. Mainly hot and dry weather expected with a break coming
about Tuesday when the max temperatures are expected to drop back
into the lower 90s most places (from near 100 Sunday).

Models continue to disagree on showers behind the cold front next
week. Hopefully, this will materialize for some needed rainfall
over the next several days. TFJ

Previous Discussion...
The long term period begins Wednesday night and Thursday with the
shortwave trough pushing further downstream while a strong upper
level ridge once again becomes established across the western U.S.
Expect a return to hot and dry weather conditions.

The upper ridge only strengthens through the end of the week and
persists right on through at least the first part of the weekend.
During this time forecast highs will be in the 90s and low 100s
each day with little, if any measurable rainfall.

Latest 00z models continue to differ some on evolution of the
pattern late in the weekend and early next week. The 00z ECMWF has
the ridge axis sliding east of the forecast area into the Dakotas
with warm upper level southwest flow aloft on the backside while
a cold front approaches for forecast area. The GFS keeps the ridge
parked over the western U.S. right on through the period, though
does introduce some flattening late in the weekend and early next
week, keeping Montana on the northern periphery and becoming
influenced more by embedded shortwaves in the flow which could
generate chances for showers and thunderstorms. The bottom line is
that a return to hot and dry conditions is in the cards for the
second half of this week and into the weekend, but some
uncertainty exists late in the weekend and early next week due to
increasing model solution differences. Maliawco

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR, but possible MVFR late tonight.

Another cold front will drop in from the north tonight bringing
low clouds to KGGW...KOLF...and KSDY late tonight/early Wednesday.

Winds: NW today at 10-20 kts this afternoon will turn clockwise to
the north and diminish this evening to less than 10 kts. Continued
light winds are expected Wednesday. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
302 AM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017

MTZ016>027-059>062-120915-
Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-
Daniels-Sheridan-Western Roosevelt-Petroleum-Garfield-McCone-
Richland-Dawson-Prairie-Wibaux-Northern Phillips-
Southwest Phillips-Northern Valley-Eastern Roosevelt-
302 AM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Montana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather Today and
Tonight is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Hot temperatures with highs in the 90s to near 100 return on
Thursday and will continue through the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
526 PM MDT TUE JUL 11 2017

MTZ016-017-022-023-059-061-120030-
Garfield MT-Central and Southeast Phillips MT-Northern Valley MT-
Northern Phillips MT-McCone MT-Central and Southern Valley MT-
526 PM MDT TUE JUL 11 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PHILLIPS...
NORTHEASTERN GARFIELD...CENTRAL VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN MCCONE
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM MDT...

At 525 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 17 miles north of Hinsdale to 10 miles south of
Saco to 14 miles southeast of Malta. Movement was southeast at 50
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Glasgow, Nashua, Fort Peck, Saco, The Pines Rec Area, Tampico,
Hinsdale, Duck Creek Rec Area, Fort Peck Marina, Hell Creek Rec Area,
Frazer, St. Marie, Rock Creek Rec Area, Vandalia, Park Grove, The
Bentonite Plant, Haxby, Content and Whatley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If on or near Fort Peck lake, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle by 600 pm. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4825 10587 4778 10621 4755 10677 4815 10788
      4834 10742 4874 10712
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 308DEG 42KT 4865 10710 4831 10736 4817 10775

TFJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
532 PM MDT TUE JUL 11 2017

MTZ016-021-060-120015-
Petroleum MT-Southwest Phillips MT-Central and Southeast Phillips MT-
532 PM MDT TUE JUL 11 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PHILLIPS AND
NORTHERN PETROLEUM COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

At 531 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Hays, or 13 miles west of Zortman, moving
southeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Landusky.

LAT...LON 4792 10889 4792 10863 4793 10862 4780 10805
      4755 10821 4779 10889
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 293DEG 33KT 4788 10881

TFJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
604 PM MDT TUE JUL 11 2017

MTZ017-018-020-061-120045-
Northern Valley MT-Daniels MT-Western Roosevelt MT-
Central and Southern Valley MT-
604 PM MDT TUE JUL 11 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DANIELS...
NORTHWESTERN ROOSEVELT AND NORTHEASTERN VALLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM
MDT...

At 603 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Opheim to 9 miles northwest of St. Marie.
Movement was east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Opheim, Richland, Lustre, Peerless, West Fork, Baylor, Glentana and
Larslan.

LAT...LON 4885 10571 4825 10588 4851 10669 4894 10660
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 285DEG 31KT 4886 10653 4850 10663

TFJ