Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Glasgow, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
1244 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Wed...

Synoptic setup: A large area of hot high pressure resides over
the southwestern quarter of the CONUS. A ridge spur runs north of
this through eastern Wyoming and Montana. A weak trough runs down
the coastline from British Columbia to northern Oregon. Zonal to
southwest flow resides between thes two features over western and
central Montana where a jet streak is evident on water vapor.

This afternoon through this evening: Near the surface a lee side
mountain trough has set up over eastern Montana and is low
pressure center over southern Saskatchewan. This low is being
driven by the jet aloft and kicking the aloft ridge into the
Dakotas. This in turn is destabilizing the atmosphere to the west
where showers and thunderstorms have already developed. A couple
showers and thunderstorms developed across northeastern zones but
should be out of the area by roughly 130PM. The next batch are
anticipated to arrive around 4 to 6 PM along the southwestern
zones. As showers and thunderstorms exit the mountains for this
warm dry sector... downburst winds are expected to form which may
become damaging at times across Petroleum and Garfield counties.

Tuesday: Showers are expected to taper down and travel across
mostly southern zones through the early morning hours leaving a
few showers across eastern zones. Some new isolated showers
activity may drop down on a weak backdoor front during the
afternoon hours.

GAH

.LONG TERM...Wed night through Mon...

Shortwave trough moves to the east Tuesday Night. A slight chance
of showers could linger into the evening.

Although the ridge rebounds on Wednesday, a weak wave in the
afternoon and evening could bring a slight chance of thunderstorms
to parts of the region. Meanwhile, somewhat cooler temperatures
will linger. The heat returns on Thursday as the ridge continues
to build back into Montana and widespread highs in the 90s return.

The ridge becomes stronger on Friday and remains in place on
Saturday with hot and dry weather. Highs will be near 100 in many
areas.

Models differ Sunday and Monday. GFS keeps strong ridge in place
while the ECMWF brings a shortwave trough across the Canadian
Prairies that flattens the ridge and bring a weak cold front. Will
maintain a hot and dry forecast for now. Forrester

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CAT: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: There will be mid and high level clouds and
thunderstorms ahead of a front that will move through Northeast
Montana this afternoon and evening.

SVR THUNDERSTORMS: Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and
tonight have the potential for downburst winds that could briefly
exceed 50 kts along with hail.

HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE: With temperatures in the upper 90s today
in some places takeoffs may need longer distance.

WIND: South to west at 10 to 15 kts this afternoon... becoming
west around 10 kts tonight... veering to the northwest at 10 to 15
kts Tuesday.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MDT this evening for MTZ134>137.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
335 AM MDT Mon Jul 10 2017

MTZ016>027-059>062-110800-
Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-
Daniels-Sheridan-Western Roosevelt-Petroleum-Garfield-McCone-
Richland-Dawson-Prairie-Wibaux-Northern Phillips-
Southwest Phillips-Northern Valley-Eastern Roosevelt-
335 AM MDT Mon Jul 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Montana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Red Flag Warning is in effect from Noon until 11 PM today due to
the combination of low relative humidity, gusty winds, and
lightning from dry thunderstorms for zones 134, 135, 136, and 137.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening. A few storms could be severe with large hail and
damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Hot temperatures with highs in the 90s to near 100 return on
Thursday and will continue through the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

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