Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1150 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings continue to work northward from Central Texas and
should reach WACO by 06Z and the Metro Terminals around 08Z.

The broken line of thunderstorms currently west of the airports
will continue moving east and should begin to impact the western
airports around 08Z. However, the radar shows that an outflow
boundary is getting out ahead of the storms so this should keep
storms below severe limits as they move across the metroplex airports.
The stronger storms currently across the Concho Valley may
impact Waco beginning around 08Z. Gusty winds will be the primary
hazard with these storms. All storms should move east of the
terminals shortly after sunrise with VFR through the day
Wednesday.

A gusty southeast wind between 14 and 20 knots sustained will
briefly turn to the west and become gusty as the line of storms
moves across the region. Once the storms move east of the region
Wednesday morning, southerly winds will return between 12 and 15
knots. A cold front will move across the region Wednesday evening
and turn the wind to the northwest.

&&

.UPDATE...
The line of storms currently in West Texas continues to organize
as it moves east. It should reach the western portions of the CWA
around 11 PM and the I-35 corridor around 3 to 4 AM unless some
cold pooling accelerates portions of the line. Damaging wind and
hail will be the primary threats with the squall line. Some brief
heavy rainfall is also likely. The storms should weaken as they
move east away from the large scale dynamics.

A new severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 4 AM which
includes locations from the I-35 corridor westward. This watch
replaces the earlier Tornado watch.

Other than updating the watch location. No major changes are
needed to the forecast at this time.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/
/ISSUED 340 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

...Tornado Watch in effect for areas west and northwest of the
Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex...

Convection continues to increase over the Texas Panhandle and
South Plains in advance of a deep upper level low, which was
centered over New Mexico this afternoon. Storms will gradually
spread eastward later this afternoon and this evening in the
eastward developing region of good forcing associated with the
upper low. Activity will likely initiate along an eastward moving
dryline, with individual storms moving generally north-northeast.
These storms will are expected to develop upscale into a linear
MCS, which will push east across North and Central Texas
overnight.

Meanwhile, a warm front has taken its time moving north, but
appears to have made it north of the I-20 corridor. The boundary
will continue to approach the Red River, and may become the focus
for a few isolated strong to severe storms. Discrete cells will
have the potential for producing large hail, damaging winds and
perhaps a tornado. The best potential for thunderstorms this
afternoon will likely be over our northwestern counties where the
strongest forcing will reside and the surface boundary will be
near.

As the line progresses east overnight, damaging straight-line
winds will be the primary threat. That said, decreasing
instability as surface heating wanes could be a factor that helps
mitigate the severe potential. The latest hi-res guidance
indicates a weakening trend as the line moves east of the I-35
corridor Wednesday morning. The dryline and/or lingering outflow
is likely to stall near the far-eastern counties as the upper low
continues trekking east across the Southern Plains. Another round
of good forcing associated with the upper low will help ignite
additional storms in the vicinity of the stalled boundary during
the peak heating hours Wednesday. Some of these storms may become
severe with large hail and damaging winds. The exact location of
the surface boundary will determine where storms initiate, and at
this time the highest POPs will be over the eastern-most counties
with lower POPs the farther west you go.

The upper low center will move east across Oklahoma Wednesday
night, which may generate isolated storms along the Red River. Due
to the expected low coverage, POPs will remain fairly low. There
could be an isolated hail threat due to the cold air aloft but the
overall severe threat Wednesday night appears low.

Thursday should be a nice day as the upper low moves east and a
cold front pushes through the region. This will be short-lived,
however, as the next upper level storm system drops quickly
southeast from the Pacific Northwest into the Four-Corners region,
bringing a quick return to south winds, moisture and warmer
weather Friday. This system looks like it will similarly generate
multiple rounds of convection from Saturday afternoon through
Sunday night. There is still some model uncertainty with regard to
the timing and exact path the system will take, but the latest
guidance hints that there will again be at least some threat of
severe weather this weekend. We may have to also consider the
threat for localized flooding to to the multiple precipitation
events expected this week.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  83  54  69  52 / 100  40  10   5   5
Waco                65  82  54  73  50 / 100  50   5   5   5
Paris               64  76  54  66  47 /  80  70  30  10  10
Denton              63  80  51  67  47 / 100  40  10   5   5
McKinney            65  78  53  67  48 / 100  50  10  10   5
Dallas              66  82  55  69  52 / 100  50  10  10   5
Terrell             66  79  55  69  48 / 100  60  20  10   5
Corsicana           66  80  56  71  51 /  90  60  20  10   5
Temple              64  82  54  75  51 /  90  50   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       57  81  49  69  47 / 100  20  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1207 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-300515-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
1207 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A line of strong to severe storms will move across the region
overnight and will pose primarily a damaging wind threat, although
severe hail and isolated tornadoes remain possible. In addition,
there will be a threat for localized instances of flash flooding,
especially for locales that receive training of storm cells with
heavy rainfall associated with the slow-moving, upper level low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorm chances will linger on Wednesday mostly along and east
of Interstate 35. The threat for severe storms will continue with a
risk for damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado. A low
chance for thunderstorms continues across this area Wednesday night,
as the core of the upper low moves across the Southern Plains. These
storms will pose a risk for marginally severe hail with the
strongest updrafts.

Another storm system will bring increasing chances for thunderstorms
to the region Saturday through Monday, with the highest coverage
Sunday and Sunday night. Strong to severe storms will once again be
possible, though many details remain uncertain regarding system and
environmental evolution.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is possible generally along and west of the
Interstate 35 corridor through sunrise.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1044 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

TXZ100-115-129-290430-
Stephens TX-Eastland TX-Young TX-
1044 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YOUNG...EASTLAND AND STEPHENS
COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

At 1042 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Bomarton to 9 miles west of Fort Griffin
to 8 miles south of Baird. Movement was east at 50 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail will be possible with
these storms. Thunderstorm outflow winds will likely precede any
rain or small hail.

Locations impacted include...
Graham, Breckenridge, Eastland, Cisco, Olney, Ranger, Gorman,
Necessity, Gunsight, Crystal Falls, Newcastle, Carbon and Us-
180 Near The Shackelford-Stephens County Line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service in
Fort Worth.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
central and north central Texas.

LAT...LON 3295 9910 3296 9895 3340 9895 3340 9843
      3295 9843 3295 9858 3252 9858 3251 9847
      3230 9848 3214 9879 3217 9912
TIME...MOT...LOC 0342Z 269DEG 44KT 3350 9948 3289 9939 3227 9939

24-Bain

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1136 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

TXZ100-101-115-116-129-290530-
Palo Pinto TX-Stephens TX-Eastland TX-Young TX-Jack TX-
1136 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YOUNG...NORTHERN EASTLAND...
SOUTHWESTERN JACK...EASTERN STEPHENS AND WESTERN PALO PINTO COUNTIES
UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

At 1135 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Dundee to 9 miles south of Olney to near
Necessity to near Cisco. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms. Strong winds will likely precede any rain or small
hail.

Locations impacted include...
Graham, Eastland, Cisco, Olney, Ranger, Bryson, Possum Kingdom State
Park, Necessity, Gunsight, Strawn, Newcastle and Mingus.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
north central Texas.

LAT...LON 3233 9905 3274 9882 3324 9887 3340 9892
      3340 9842 3273 9832 3251 9843 3251 9847
      3230 9847 3227 9854
TIME...MOT...LOC 0435Z 271DEG 27KT 3372 9895 3324 9881 3274 9876 3240
9895

24-Bain

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1211 AM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

TXZ142-156-290600-
Mills TX-Lampasas TX-
1211 AM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAMPASAS AND MILLS COUNTIES UNTIL
100 AM CDT...

At 1211 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Elm Grove to 8 miles north of Field Creek
to near Loyal Valley. Movement was east at 55 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lampasas, Goldthwaite, Mullin, Bend, Lometa and Us-
190 Near The San Saba-Lampasses County Line.

These storms may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service in
Fort Worth.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
central Texas.

LAT...LON 3161 9878 3169 9876 3172 9850 3119 9808
      3103 9812 3103 9844 3106 9848 3111 9846
      3109 9853 3117 9851 3127 9863 3133 9859
      3131 9863 3137 9865 3134 9870 3143 9873
      3139 9877 3144 9887 3144 9897 3148 9899
TIME...MOT...LOC 0511Z 270DEG 47KT 3144 9898 3102 9890 3054 9895

24-Bain

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1216 AM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

TXZ100-101-116-290615-
Palo Pinto TX-Young TX-Jack TX-
1216 AM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN YOUNG...JACK AND PALO
PINTO COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

At 1215 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles south of Windthorst to near Graford to
8 miles northwest of Gordon. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Mineral Wells, Jacksboro, Graford, Bryson, Gordon, Newport, Strawn
and Mingus.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
north central Texas.

LAT...LON 3340 9842 3346 9842 3347 9798 3344 9798
      3343 9792 3300 9792 3300 9805 3251 9807
      3251 9857 3291 9851 3311 9852 3340 9862
TIME...MOT...LOC 0515Z 263DEG 41KT 3341 9838 3299 9833 3264 9847

24-Bain

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1251 AM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

TXZ141>143-156-157-290645-
Mills TX-Comanche TX-Coryell TX-Lampasas TX-Hamilton TX-
1251 AM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HAMILTON...CORYELL...LAMPASAS...
NORTHEASTERN MILLS AND SOUTHEASTERN COMANCHE COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM
CDT...

At 1250 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles southwest of Hamilton to 12 miles
southwest of Evant to 8 miles northeast of Tow. Movement was
northeast at 55 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Copperas Cove, Gatesville, Lampasas, Hamilton, Hico, Kempner, Evant,
Fort Gates and South Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
central and north central Texas.

LAT...LON 3178 9853 3192 9821 3192 9820 3202 9800
      3167 9777 3171 9769 3155 9758 3130 9773
      3107 9790 3106 9791 3104 9791 3103 9844
      3104 9844 3105 9846 3125 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 0550Z 245DEG 48KT 3163 9827 3130 9823 3100 9841

24-Bain

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
106 AM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

TXZ130>132-290630-
Hood TX-Erath TX-Somervell TX-
106 AM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOMERVELL...EASTERN ERATH AND
HOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

At 106 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Morgan Mill, or 12 miles northeast of
Stephenville, moving northeast at 60 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stephenville, Granbury, Pecan Plantation, Glen Rose, Lipan, Morgan
Mill, Dinosaur Valley State Park, Oak Trail Shores and Tolar.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
central and north central Texas.

LAT...LON 3250 9827 3251 9822 3251 9807 3256 9807
      3255 9762 3221 9761 3220 9764 3207 9789
      3196 9814 3244 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 0606Z 233DEG 52KT 3235 9806

24-Bain