Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
308 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms have developed in advance of a dryline as lift from
an upper low spreads overhead. The dryline has advanced to near
the I-35 corridor, and the atmosphere has destabilized
considerably through the course of the day ahead of the boundary.
Convection should continue to increase in coverage and intensify
generally along and east of I-35/35E. Overall shear is modest,
but when combined with the 2000+ J/KG of CAPE, will be more than
enough for several severe storms with large hail and damaging
winds the primary threats.

The upper upper low responsible for the precipitation is moving
eastward across Oklahoma and will gradually transition into an
open shortwave trough this evening. This feature should continue
to provide enough lift for continued showers and storms into the
early evening hours across counties east of I-35-35E. The brunt of
this activity will push east of the forecast area around sunset as
the upper trough axis shifts towards the TX/LA border. However, a
cold front will be surging southeast through the region and may
provide focus for additional development during the late evening
and overnight hours.

The front should sweep through the entire CWA by sunrise Friday,
bringing cooler and drier air into North and Central Texas. The
weather pattern will remain fairly quiet over the weekend as upper
ridging dominates the Southern Plains, with sunny, warm days and
clear, cool nights expected.

By Monday, the upper ridge will have shifted east of the area
while an upper trough deepens along the West Coast. The surface
ridge will also be situated east of the region over the Lower MS
Valley, leading to a return of south winds and increasing moisture
across North and Central TX. The West Coast Trough will quickly
swing across the Desert Southwest and into the Southern Plains
late Tuesday. This will generate a round of scattered showers and
storms Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday Night. The weather
pattern will remain fairly active mid and late week as a series of
shortwave troughs bring multiple chances of showers and storms
area-wide.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1254 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017/
Early this afternoon, the dryline is presently still off to our
west (and farther west than much of the morning high-resolution
guidance suggested). Surface analysis reveals it stretches from
near a KETN-KMWL-K0F2 line and gradually mixing eastward. Ahead of
this feature, the atmosphere is becoming moderately unstable and
lingering inhibition continues to erode. Because of the latest
analyzed dryline position, we've opted to include VCTS across all
Metroplex TAF sites during the 19-21Z time frame (AFW, FTW, DFW)
and 20-22Z to the east(DAL and GKY) which seems to encompass the
most probable time for direct convective impacts. Storms will then
gradually congeal into a line as additional storms begin to
develop southwestward along the surging dryline. While direct
thunder impacts should be relatively short-lived at Metroplex
sites, major disruptions to eastern departures and the Bonham and
Cedar Creek cornerposts appear likely into the late afternoon. At
Waco, similar convective trends are expected, albeit a few hours
delayed from the Metroplex sites.

A cold front will then move through later this evening (03-04Z
across the Metroplex and closer to 06Z at Waco), bringing about a
gusty northwest wind shift. As the core of the upper-low slides
just north of the Red River on Friday morning, some MVFR cigs
appear probable, and have included these in the Metroplex TAFs
before VFR returns during the afternoon.

One lingering uncertainty revolves around whether additional
convection will fire on the front as it moves through Waco. At
this time, this possibility appears too low to warrant inclusion
in their TAF, but we will monitor trends.

Carlaw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  80  59  82  62 /  10   5   0   0   0
Waco                61  81  56  83  60 /  20   0   0   0   0
Paris               59  75  55  78  57 /  30  10   0   0   0
Denton              60  77  54  80  59 /   5   5   0   0   0
McKinney            61  77  55  80  59 /  10  10   0   0   0
Dallas              64  80  60  82  62 /  10   5   0   0   0
Terrell             61  78  56  80  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
Corsicana           62  80  58  81  59 /  30   5   0   0   0
Temple              62  81  56  83  60 /  20   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       57  79  53  82  57 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

90/30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
328 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-121145-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
328 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected generally along and
east of the Interstate 35 corridor through this evening. Some storms
will be severe with large hail and damaging wind. Storms will linger
across the Southeastern-most counties overnight along a cold front.
A few of these storms could become strong to possibly severe. Storms
should exit the forecast area Friday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorm chances will return on Tuesday and continue into
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is likely this afternoon and evening mainly east
of Interstate 35/35E.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
447 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

TXZ095-106-107-112230-
Hopkins TX-Lamar TX-Delta TX-
447 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HOPKINS...SOUTHEASTERN
LAMAR AND CENTRAL DELTA COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 447 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cooper Lake Park South Sulphur, or 9 miles northwest of Sulphur
Springs, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sulphur Springs, Cooper, Deport, Cooper Lake Park Doctors Creek,
Cooper Lake Park South Sulphur and Tira.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
north central Texas.

LAT...LON 3316 9568 3329 9581 3361 9548 3360 9531
      3332 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 235DEG 36KT 3327 9567

Hernandez

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