Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
355 PM MST Fri Aug 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected
today before a drier and more stable airmass moves into the region
over the weekend into early next week. This will result in much
less storm coverage across northern Arizona.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another active thunderstorm day developed across northern Arizona
today. This active pattern is expected to temper in the coming
days, however, with southwesterly flow pushing a drier airmass
into the region. While the decreasing moisture will likely limit
the amount of storms developing over the area, some isolated
showers will still be possible through the afternoon hours this
weekend.

Models are indicating the potential for returning moisture by the
mid-to-latter stages of next week, and we will watch for this in
the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Scattered TSRA will persist
mainly along and NE of a KCMR - KSEZ - KPAN line through 03Z. The
strongest storm cells will produce IFR conditions and typical gusty
winds. Storm activity should decrease aft 03Z, but isolated to
scattered showers remain possible overnight. Scattered storms
will redevelop Saturday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered thunderstorm activity this
afternoon and again on Saturday. Storms will produce locally heavy
rain and gusty winds. Expect a drying trend with much less storm
activity from Sunday through much of next week.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
240 AM MST Fri Aug 4 2017

AZZ004>018-037>040-050330-
Kaibab Plateau-Marble and Glen Canyons-Grand Canyon Country-
Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-Chinle Valley-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-
Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
240 AM MST Fri Aug 4 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for Apache...Coconino...
Northern Gila...Navajo...and Yavapai Counties in Northern
Arizona.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The most likely initial development will be over the White
Mountains and Mogollon Rim later this morning, with storm motion
to the North and Northeast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Moisture begins to decrease across the area limiting storms to a
more isolated pattern through the weekend and into early next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1243 PM MST FRI AUG 4 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MAYER                   34.40N 112.23W
08/04/2017                   YAVAPAI            AZ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            BIG BUG CREEK AT SR 69 STREAM GAUGE REPORTED
            A PEAK STAGE OF 5.1 FEET. THIS IS AN
            ESTIMATED 4 FOOT RISE.

&&

MCT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
354 PM MST FRI AUG 4 2017

AZZ008-037-038-042330-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County  Mountains-Oak Creek
and Sycamore Canyons-
354 PM MST FRI AUG 4 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE VILLAGE OF OAK CREEK...

At 351 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Village Of Oak Creek moving east at 15 mph.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Pea-sized inch hail will also be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Village At Oak Creek around 405 PM MST.
  Mile marker 305 on I-17 around 430 PM MST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Red Rock State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 11196 3484 11190 3479 11159 3468 11171
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 286DEG 13KT 3479 11183

TM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
450 PM MST FRI AUG 4 2017

AZZ008-037-050015-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County  Mountains-
450 PM MST FRI AUG 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM
MST...

At 449 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rimrock, or 8 miles northeast of Camp Verde, moving east at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Montezuma Well, Montezuma Castle National Monument, Rimrock, Lake
Montezuma, Mcguireville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3462 11182 3470 11179 3470 11158 3457 11162
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 276DEG 10KT 3466 11174

JJ