Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
958 AM MST Fri Aug 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected
today before a drier and more stable airmass moves into the region
over the weekend into early next week. This will result in much
less storm coverage across northern Arizona.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current forecast with another round of showers and thunderstorms
today remains on track. Little updates to the forecast are
anticipated this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /337 AM MST/... Drying conditions are expected to
begin today as dry air is expected to move into the area from
the southwest today and spread northeastward as the weekend
develops. Showers and thunderstorms are still expected to be
scattered to widespread this afternoon and evening, with the only
potential decrease in activity over Yavapai County where the drier
air is expected.

As each day passes more drier air is expected to be advected into
the region due to the parent low pressure system off the
California coast. While the decreasing moisture will limit the
amount of storms developing over the area, some isolated showers
will still be possible through the afternoon hours this weekend.

This drying trend looks to be short lived though, with model
solutions continuing to show a return to wetter conditions by the
later half of the work week due to an easterly wave making its
way across the Texas and Mexico and into the Four Corners.
Consistency between model forecast runs has raised confidence in
this occurrence, however, the fact that this event would occur 6
to 7 days out does yield enough uncertainty to decrease chances of
precipitation in the extreme long term.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions this morning with
scattered -SHRA across northeastern Arizona. Expect scattered TSRA
to develop across all of northern Arizona 17Z-02Z. Stronger storms
will produce MFR to IFR conditions and typical gusty winds. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms
today and Saturday with areas of moderate to locally heavy rain.
Gusty winds will develop near any storms.

Sunday through Tuesday...A drying trend is expected with only
isolated showers and thunderstorms across far northern and eastern
Arizona by Monday and Tuesday. Near average temperatures are
expected.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...KD/Suk
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
240 AM MST Fri Aug 4 2017

AZZ004>018-037>040-050330-
Kaibab Plateau-Marble and Glen Canyons-Grand Canyon Country-
Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-Chinle Valley-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-
Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
240 AM MST Fri Aug 4 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for Apache...Coconino...
Northern Gila...Navajo...and Yavapai Counties in Northern
Arizona.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The most likely initial development will be over the White
Mountains and Mogollon Rim later this morning, with storm motion
to the North and Northeast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Moisture begins to decrease across the area limiting storms to a
more isolated pattern through the weekend and into early next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1243 PM MST FRI AUG 4 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MAYER                   34.40N 112.23W
08/04/2017                   YAVAPAI            AZ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            BIG BUG CREEK AT SR 69 STREAM GAUGE REPORTED
            A PEAK STAGE OF 5.1 FEET. THIS IS AN
            ESTIMATED 4 FOOT RISE.

&&

MCT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
354 PM MST FRI AUG 4 2017

AZZ008-037-038-042330-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County  Mountains-Oak Creek
and Sycamore Canyons-
354 PM MST FRI AUG 4 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE VILLAGE OF OAK CREEK...

At 351 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Village Of Oak Creek moving east at 15 mph.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Pea-sized inch hail will also be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Village At Oak Creek around 405 PM MST.
  Mile marker 305 on I-17 around 430 PM MST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Red Rock State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 11196 3484 11190 3479 11159 3468 11171
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 286DEG 13KT 3479 11183

TM