Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
946 AM MST Sun Jul 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms along and
south of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains this weekend, with
isolated storms elsewhere. Heavy rainfall rates from the stronger
storms will be capable of producing flash flooding across parts of
the area. Moisture is expected to increase early next week, with
shower and thunderstorm coverage growing across the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Looks like another round of showers and
thunderstorms today. Same story a previous days, activity will be
on the isolated side north of the Mogollon Rim. Along and south
of the Rim the steering flow will push storms southwestward into
richer moisture across the general area from Payson westward to
Black Canyon City, the Verde Valley, Prescott and Bagdad. Heavy
downpours of to 2 inches of rain and wind gusts to 60 mph will be
possible across the described area this afternoon.

The upper level ridge vital to steering flow for the North
American Monsoon continues to remain over the Nevada-Arizona-Utah
boundary. This will allow for North-Northeast steering flow
across much of the area and will increase the potential for storms
to develop off the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim before
moving Southwest across the Yavapai and Gila counties. This flow
pattern combined with an influx of moisture moving into the
region, allowing for more efficient rainfall rates, has increased
the chances of flash flooding south and west of the rim that a
Flash Flood Watch has been issued from 11 am Sunday though until
10 pm Monday Night.

Through this timeframe the axis of the upper level ridge will
shift eastward into Colorado and New Mexico. With this shift in
the ridge the steering flow of the monsoon looks to come out of
the southeast and move towards the northwest spreading low level
moisture and subsequent thunderstorms across much of Northern
Arizona. This is expected to become most evident on Tuesday and
Wednesday with the spread of the storms across much of the high
country. This pattern currently looks to remain through the bulk
of the week with no significant decrease in moisture expected at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Another round of thunderstorms
this afternoon, with storm coverage favoring areas from KFLG to KSJN
south where MVFR conditions will attend storms. A few storms will
produce heavy rain and wind gusts to 60 mph. Activity generally more
isolated and weaker north of the above line. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Numerous showers and storms are expected along
and south of the Mogollon Rim through Monday with scattered coverage
elsewhere. For today storms to develop first along the Mogollon Rim
around noon, with storm movement the southwest. Expect higher
humidity and cooler temperatures.

Tuesday through Thursday...Increased moisture will bring greater
storm coverage across the district. Timing of storm activity still
from late morning through early evening.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening FOR AZZ008-015>018-037-
038.

&&

PUBLIC...McCollum/Suk
AVIATION...MCT/DL

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
319 AM MST Sun Jul 16 2017

AZZ008-015>018-037-038-170700-
Yavapai County Mountains-Western Mogollon Rim-
Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-Northern Gila County-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-
319 AM MST Sun Jul 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for the The White Mountains and Mogollon
Rim southwest into Northern Gila and Yavapai Counties in Northern
Arizona.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Today deeper moisture will surge in from Mexico bringing an
increase in thunderstorm coverage which will be a trend into the
midweek. The main threats will remain localized flooding and
lightning. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued starting at 11 am
and continuing into Monday evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Activity will spread further northward with each day for better
coverage north of the Mogollon Rim by the mid-week. Models
suggest a slight drying trend could be possible by later next
week depending on the movement of the high pressure but it is
still early to settle on that outcome.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

AZZ004>007-009>014-039-040-170700-
Kaibab Plateau-Marble and Glen Canyons-Grand Canyon Country-
Coconino Plateau-Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-
Chinle Valley-Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
319 AM MST Sun Jul 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for locations north of the
Mogollon Rim including the Little Colorado River valley, Chuska
Mountains and Deviance Plateau, along with the Northeast Plateaus
and Mesas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
By Sunday, deeper moisture will surge in from Mexico bringing an
increase in thunderstorm coverage which will be a trend into the
midweek. The main threats will remain localized flooding and
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Activity will spread further northward with each day for better
coverage north of the Mogollon Rim by the mid-week. Increased
coverage will likely bring an increased flash flood threat by
Wednesday-Thursday. Models suggest a drying trend could be
possible by later next week depending on the movement of the high
pressure but it is still early to settle on that outcome.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

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