Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

702 
WGUS75 KFGZ 022332
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
432 PM MST WED AUG 2 2017

AZC005-030030-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-170803T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino-
432 PM MST WED AUG 2 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM MST FOR
COCONINO COUNTY...

At 429 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated moderate rainfall continued 
across the Antelope Creek basin southeast of Page. Up to one inch of 
rain has already fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
LeChee, Antelope Creek Basin, Lower and Upper Antelope Canyons.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 11134 3673 11127 3669 11145 3695 11145

$$

41

569 
WGUS75 KFGZ 030029
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
529 PM MST WED AUG 2 2017

AZC005-030037-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-170803T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino-
529 PM MST WED AUG 2 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR COCONINO COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 530 PM
MST...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters should be receding in the 
Antelope Canyon basin. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat.

LAT...LON 3695 11134 3673 11127 3669 11145 3695 11145

$$

41

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
334 PM MST Wed Aug 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Active monsoon conditions will continue across
northern Arizona through Friday. A decrease in the monsoon
moisture will thunderstorm activity by this weekend and into
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed
this afternoon in northern Arizona with the strongest storms
observed over western Coconino and northern Yavapai counties. So
far, activity has been less widespread than we have seen over the
past few days. Coverage and intensity of these storms is expected
to diminish after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

The main story through the forecast period will be the intrusion
of drier air into the area. Ensembles indicate precipitable water
values this weekend and into early next week will be as low as
two standard deviations below normal. This is the result of a
trough of low pressure off the coast of California which will
increase west-southwest flow over the region advecting in the
drier air. Due to this, expect significantly less shower and
thunderstorm activity by the weekend and into early next week.
However, isolated showers and thunderstorms still cannot be ruled
out during this timeframe. As we look into the middle of next
week and beyond, long range model guidance does indicate a change
in the flow and another northward surge of monsoonal moisture
leading to increased shower and thunderstorm activity.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Showers and thunderstorms will
continue into the evening and overnight hours, expected to be most
numerous west of a KPGA-KFLG line. MVFR to IFR conditions in the
stronger storms...otherwise VFR conditions expected. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms each
day Thursday and Friday with areas of moderate to locally heavy
rain. Gusty winds will develop near any storms.

Saturday through Monday...Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated to decrease across northern Arizona.
Near normal temperatures are expected.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...TPS
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...KD

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
344 AM MST Wed Aug 2 2017

AZZ004>018-037>040-030430-
Kaibab Plateau-Marble and Glen Canyons-Grand Canyon Country-
Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-Chinle Valley-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-
Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
344 AM MST Wed Aug 2 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for Apache...Coconino...
Northern Gila...Navajo...and Yavapai Counties in Northern
Arizona.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

High pressure building over Nevada will bring east to northeast
flow back to the area today. This will cause storm activity to
decrease north of I-40, while the southern portions of the area
stay active.

The most likely initial development will be over the White
Mountains and Mogollon Rim later this morning, with storm motion
to the west. This will bring activity into Yavapai, northern Gila
and western Coconino counties by the late afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The high pressure area begins to break down Thursday, allowing
activity to push back northward.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.