Flash Flood Warning 67, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

154 
WGUS75 KFGZ 020133
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
633 PM MST TUE AUG 1 2017

AZC025-020315-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0067.000000T0000Z-170802T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
633 PM MST TUE AUG 1 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM MST FOR
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 630 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated light rainfall continuing 
across the Castle Creek drainage. Radar has estimated up to two 
inches of rain have already fallen from earlier storms. Flash 
flooding is expected to begin shortly.

This includes the following streams and drainages...East Fork Castle 
Creek...Castle Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.
&&

LAT...LON 3396 11243 3410 11252 3404 11239 3389 11228
      3390 11229

$$
41

578 
WGUS75 KFGZ 020314
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
814 PM MST TUE AUG 1 2017

AZC025-020323-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0067.000000T0000Z-170802T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
814 PM MST TUE AUG 1 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 815 PM
MST...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat on Castle Creek and East Fork Castle Creek. Please continue 
to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3396 11243 3410 11252 3404 11239 3389 11228
      3390 11229

$$

41

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
322 PM MST Tue Aug 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Active conditions will remain in place along the
Mogollon Rim and southward through the week. Drier and warmer
conditions are expected near the Utah border.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing
this afternoon with the greatest coverage along and south of I-40.
Coverage and storm intensity will decrease after sunset with the
loss of daytime heating. A strong ridge of high pressure centered
to the northwest of the area will remain the dominant weather
feature over the next few days. This will act to suppress the most
widespread convection to the Mogollon Rim and southward with drier
and warmer conditions near the Utah border. The ridge will begin
to break down later in the week with a weak trough of low
pressure developing off the coast of California. Models indicate
this could advect drier air over northern Arizona resulting in
even less thunderstorm activity by the weekend and early next
week. Until there is some better model consistency, have
continued with the previous forecast of chance pops along the
Mogollon Rim and southward during this time frame with slight
chance elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will continue, decreasing in coverage and intensity
after sunset. Local reductions in cig/vis possible in moderate to
heavy RA. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms are
forecast after 18Z Wednesday, with the greatest activity expected
along and south of the Mogollon Rim, and in the White
Mountains. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast
each day, favoring areas along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
south into Yavapai and Gila Counties. Expect gusty winds near any
storms, and areas of moderate to locally heavy rain.

Friday through Sunday...Expect daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms across all of northern Arizona, along with near normal
temperatures.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...TPS
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
613 AM MST Tue Aug 1 2017

AZZ004>018-037>040-020345-
Kaibab Plateau-Marble and Glen Canyons-Grand Canyon Country-
Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-Chinle Valley-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-
Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
613 AM MST Tue Aug 1 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for Apache...Coconino...
Northern Gila...Navajo...and Yavapai Counties in Northern
Arizona.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

High pressure building over Nevada will bring east to northeast
flow back to the area today. This will cause storm activity to
decrease north of I-40, while the southern portions of the area
stay active.

The most likely initial development will be over the White
Mountains and Mogollon Rim later this morning, with storm motion
to the west. This will bring activity into Yavapai, northern Gila
and western Coconino counties by the late afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A similar pattern will remain in place through at least
Wednesday. This pattern will favor the southern portions of the
area. The high pressure area begins to break down later in the
week and into the weekend, allowing activity to push back
northward.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.