Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1015 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Cold front is currently along the GA/AL border this morning. The
heaviest band of precipitation stretches from the northern
Atlanta suburbs to just south of Columbus. There isn't much
instability north of Interstate 20. A rumble of thunder or two is
possible north if Interstate 20, but there is better potential for
scattered thunderstorms south of I20 for the remainder of the
morning into the afternoon hours. The main weather hazard should
be locally heave rainfall. A few obs have been reporting between
1/4sm and 1sm visibilities within the showers ahead of the main
line.

Will make some tweaks to the back edge of the precip shield. Temps
and dews look ok for now and will only make very minor changes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 729 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 357 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...

Cold front currently moving across AL and central TN bringing
showers and isolated thunderstorms to the Southeastern U.S. The
precipitation shield associated with the trough/front will continue
to spread eastward with the actual front moving into far western GA
right around daybreak.

The cold front should move through most of the CWA by late
morning/early afternoon. As the front exits the state...instability
indices and shear values increase a bit and we may see some strong
to near severe storms this afternoon for areas east of an ATL to MCN
line. The biggest threat will be periods of heavy rain...gusty
winds...and frequent lightning strikes. The current forecast models
are showing this frontal system completely exiting the area by 00z
Tues with a much drier and cooler airmass pushing into the area
through Tuesday.

Cooler temperatures and a drier airmass are expected behind the cold
front Monday night. Lows tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with
highs Tues mainly in the 60s to near 70.

01

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

The long term portion begins with a very strong mid level trough
moving through with a very much mid winter appearance. This will
usher in the coldest air of this young fall season by far with mid
to upper 30s for the northern tier on Wednesday morning and now
only recovering to the upper 50s for Wednesday afternoon. There
will be some wrap around clouds with the passage of the trough but
at this time, moisture looks too shallow to result in any
precipitation.

High pressure remains in control for much of the week with
continued cold conditions during the overnight as there could be
some lower 30s for the NE mountains Wed night into Thu morning.
Next wx system will be on tap for the weekend as another cold
front moves into NW GA late on Friday. Does not appear at this
time as if this one will be able to tap into the gulf so front
will have to bring all its moisture with it. Looks limited at best
for precip chances and will limit to low end chance in the grids
for now.

Looks like the ECMWF has come around to the GFS solution of a
cleaner FROPA Sat into Sun. Still will hold onto some pops through
the first half of the weekend for now but if trends continue,
should be able to drop altogether with subsequent forecasts.
Another shot of cold temps to follow the frontal passage with a
return to lows in the 30s.

Deese

AVIATION...
12Z Update...
IFR ceilings to start this TAF set with things improving rapidly as
the frontal system moves through the area. Showers ahead of the
main front are moving across the state right and we should see
some thunderstorms later this morning. Best timing for TSRA in the
ATL area will be generally between 14-16z and a bit later at AHN
and MCN. Precip will come to an end around 18z in the ATL area
with ceilings lifting and SCT out by 20z. Winds starting out of
the SE and turning to the S and then the W and NW through the end
of the TAF set. Wind speeds around 10kt and will see some gust
near 20kt through the afternoon. Wind speeds diminish after 00z to
8kt or less. Will see some more gust Tuesday afternoon also.
VSBYs will be in the MVFR to VFR range through the period.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium to high confidence on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  48  69  42 /  90  30   0   0
Atlanta         70  51  66  43 /  90   5   0   0
Blairsville     67  43  61  35 /  90  20   5   5
Cartersville    69  47  64  39 /  90   5   0   0
Columbus        74  51  70  46 /  90   5   0   0
Gainesville     69  49  65  42 /  90  20   0   0
Macon           75  49  72  42 /  90  20   0   0
Rome            69  46  64  39 /  90   5   0   0
Peachtree City  72  47  67  40 /  90   5   0   0
Vidalia         78  55  76  48 /  70  50   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for the following
zones: Fannin...Lumpkin...Towns...Union...White.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
702 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-241115-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
702 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

...Wind Advisory In Effect For The Higher Elevations Of Northeast
Georgia...

Thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of a cold front
this morning with a few strong thunderstorms. An isolated severe
thunderstorm remains possible as well. The primary hazard from
any strong to severe thunderstorms will be occasional lightning
and strong, possibly damaging wind gusts. Heavy rainfall can also
be expected with primary threat over the higher elevations of NE
Georgia.

Strong winds at higher elevations of Northeast Georgia with 20 to
25 mph and gusts to 35 mph will lead to some trees and powerlines
down through early afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

No hazardous weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

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