Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
729 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 357 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...

Cold front currently moving across AL and central TN bringing
showers and isolated thunderstorms to the Southeastern U.S. The
precipitation shield associated with the trough/front will continue
to spread eastward with the actual front moving into far western GA
right around daybreak.

The cold front should move through most of the CWA by late
morning/early afternoon. As the front exits the state...instability
indices and shear values increase a bit and we may see some strong
to near severe storms this afternoon for areas east of an ATL to MCN
line. The biggest threat will be periods of heavy rain...gusty
winds...and frequent lightning strikes. The current forecast models
are showing this frontal system completely exiting the area by 00z
Tues with a much drier and cooler airmass pushing into the area
through Tuesday.

Cooler temperatures and a drier airmass are expected behind the cold
front Monday night. Lows tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with
highs Tues mainly in the 60s to near 70.

01

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

The long term portion begins with a very strong mid level trough
moving through with a very much mid winter appearance. This will
usher in the coldest air of this young fall season by far with mid
to upper 30s for the northern tier on Wednesday morning and now
only recovering to the upper 50s for Wednesday afternoon. There
will be some wrap around clouds with the passage of the trough but
at this time, moisture looks too shallow to result in any
precipitation.

High pressure remains in control for much of the week with
continued cold conditions during the overnight as there could be
some lower 30s for the NE mountains Wed night into Thu morning.
Next wx system will be on tap for the weekend as another cold
front moves into NW GA late on Friday. Does not appear at this
time as if this one will be able to tap into the gulf so front
will have to bring all its moisture with it. Looks limited at best
for precip chances and will limit to low end chance in the grids
for now.

Looks like the ECMWF has come around to the GFS solution of a
cleaner FROPA Sat into Sun. Still will hold onto some pops through
the first half of the weekend for now but if trends continue,
should be able to drop altogether with subsequent forecasts.
Another shot of cold temps to follow the frontal passage with a
return to lows in the 30s.

Deese

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
IFR ceilings to start this TAF set with things improving rapidly as
the frontal system moves through the area. Showers ahead of the
main front are moving across the state right and we should see
some thunderstorms later this morning. Best timing for TSRA in the
ATL area will be generally between 14-16z and a bit later at AHN
and MCN. Precip will come to an end around 18z in the ATL area
with ceilings lifting and SCT out by 20z. Winds starting out of
the SE and turning to the S and then the W and NW through the end
of the TAF set. Wind speeds around 10kt and will see some gust
near 20kt through the afternoon. Wind speeds diminish after 00z to
8kt or less. Will see some more gust Tuesday afternoon also.
VSBYs will be in the MVFR to VFR range through the period.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium to high confidence on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  48  69  42 /  90  30   0   0
Atlanta         70  51  66  43 /  90   5   0   0
Blairsville     67  43  61  35 /  90  20   5   5
Cartersville    69  47  64  39 /  90   5   0   0
Columbus        74  51  70  46 /  90   5   0   0
Gainesville     69  49  65  42 /  90  20   0   0
Macon           75  49  72  42 /  90  20   0   0
Rome            69  46  64  39 /  90   5   0   0
Peachtree City  72  47  67  40 /  90   5   0   0
Vidalia         78  55  76  48 /  70  50   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for the following
zones: Fannin...Lumpkin...Towns...Union...White.

&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Deese
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
702 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-241115-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
702 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

...Wind Advisory In Effect For The Higher Elevations Of Northeast
Georgia...

Thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of a cold front
this morning with a few strong thunderstorms. An isolated severe
thunderstorm remains possible as well. The primary hazard from
any strong to severe thunderstorms will be occasional lightning
and strong, possibly damaging wind gusts. Heavy rainfall can also
be expected with primary threat over the higher elevations of NE
Georgia.

Strong winds at higher elevations of Northeast Georgia with 20 to
25 mph and gusts to 35 mph will lead to some trees and powerlines
down through early afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

No hazardous weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
414 AM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

GAZ103-230845-
Webster GA-
414 AM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEBSTER COUNTY UNTIL 445 AM
EDT...

At 414 AM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Parrott, or 7 miles
northwest of Dawson...moving north at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Preston, Weston, Centerpoint, Dumas, Leveretts and Chambliss.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3213 8464 3213 8443 3204 8443 3204 8444
      3193 8445 3192 8446 3192 8460
TIME...MOT...LOC 0814Z 175DEG 34KT 3187 8451

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
424 AM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

GAZ092-104-230900-
Schley GA-Sumter GA-
424 AM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SCHLEY AND WESTERN
SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 500 AM EDT...

At 424 AM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Plains to Olivers Mill...and moving north at 45
mph.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Americus, Ellaville, Plains, Smithville, Sumter, Maddox, Croxton
Crossroads and Walls Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3190 8437 3192 8438 3197 8444 3204 8444
      3204 8443 3208 8443 3229 8437 3210 8419
      3191 8426 3192 8434 3187 8434
TIME...MOT...LOC 0824Z 191DEG 37KT 3199 8443 3185 8432

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
458 AM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

GAZ080-091>093-104>106-230930-
Macon GA-Schley GA-Crisp GA-Dooly GA-Taylor GA-Sumter GA-Marion GA-
458 AM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MACON...SCHLEY...NORTHWESTERN
CRISP...DOOLY...SOUTHWESTERN TAYLOR...NORTHEASTERN SUMTER AND
NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 530 AM EDT...

At 458 AM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Doyle to Georgia Veterans Memorial St Pk...and moving
north at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Americus, Cordele, Vienna, Butler, Ellaville, Oglethorpe, Montezuma,
Byromville, Ideal, Pinehurst, Andersonville, Lilly, Dooling, Murrays
Crossroads, Whitewater State Park, Richwood, New Era, Rupert, La
Crosse and Pennington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3231 8449 3262 8440 3264 8437 3216 8366
      3190 8387
TIME...MOT...LOC 0858Z 200DEG 30KT 3231 8444 3196 8392

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
949 AM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

GAZ031-032-042>044-053-054-066-067-078-089-231415-
Harris GA-Fayette GA-Douglas GA-Cobb GA-Coweta GA-Carroll GA-
Troup GA-Meriwether GA-Paulding GA-Muscogee GA-South Fulton GA-
949 AM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARRIS...NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...
DOUGLAS...WESTERN COBB...COWETA...EASTERN CARROLL...EASTERN TROUP...
MERIWETHER...SOUTHEASTERN PAULDING...NORTHERN MUSCOGEE AND SOUTH
FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 AM EDT...

At 949 AM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Brownsville to near Fortson...and moving east at
25 mph.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Marietta, Newnan, Douglasville, Dallas, Hamilton, Greenville, Smyrna,
Peachtree City, Union City, Powder Springs, Fairburn, Tyrone,
Austell, Palmetto, Hiram, Hogansville, Grantville, Pine Mountain,
Luthersville and Waverly Hall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3392 8481 3402 8449 3378 8453 3375 8457
      3373 8454 3252 8473 3251 8500
TIME...MOT...LOC 1349Z 254DEG 22KT 3378 8478 3258 8497

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1013 AM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

GAZ013-014-021-022-032-033-043>045-053>056-067>069-231445-
Dawson GA-Fayette GA-Coweta GA-Forsyth GA-Meriwether GA-Pike GA-
South Fulton GA-North Fulton GA-Douglas GA-Cobb GA-Clayton GA-
Cherokee GA-Upson GA-DeKalb GA-Pickens GA-Spalding GA-
1013 AM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DAWSON...FAYETTE...
EASTERN COWETA...NORTHWESTERN FORSYTH...MERIWETHER...WESTERN PIKE...
SOUTH FULTON...NORTH FULTON...NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS...COBB...WESTERN
CLAYTON...CHEROKEE...NORTHWESTERN UPSON...WESTERN DEKALB...
SOUTHEASTERN PICKENS AND WESTERN SPALDING COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 AM
EDT...

At 1013 AM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Ball Ground to near Warm Springs...and moving
northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Atlanta, Marietta, Newnan, Canton, Decatur, Fayetteville, Jonesboro,
Greenville, Sandy Springs, Roswell, Alpharetta, Smyrna, Dunwoody,
Peachtree City, East Point, Milton, Woodstock, Union City, Forest
Park and Riverdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3445 8416 3294 8446 3286 8474 3287 8480
      3432 8452
TIME...MOT...LOC 1413Z 241DEG 31KT 3431 8444 3288 8473

WIND...40MPH