Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
306 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...
As has been the case lately, there is a smattering of showers and
thunderstorms across the area this afternoon. A weak surface
boundary continues to retreat back northward through the CWA with
weak easterly flow ahead of the retreating boundary. Regardless, the
airmass on both sides of the boundary remains moist with PWs around
2 inches. This will continue to support heavy rainfall in convection
this afternoon and evening with localized flooding issues again the
main concern. Showers and thunderstorms will persist into this
evening with overall coverage lessening into the overnight hours.
However, some rainfall will likely persist even into Friday morning.

This boundary will continue to slowly lift north of the area through
Friday morning. The southeast US will remain under a persistent
westerly upper flow on Friday with continued upper disturbances
affecting the area and bringing increased convection. At the risk of
sounding repetitive, with PWs again above 2" locally heavy rainfall
will be the primary concern, though a couple of stronger
thunderstorms will be possible during peak instability.

Temperatures on Friday will continue to be tempered by cloud cover,
especially in north Georgia where highs will remain a few degrees
below normal.

RW

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
A wet pattern will continue over the CWA through the long term,
although slightly drier conditions on Saturday will yield slightly
lower pops. Previous long term discussion follows...

17

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

Medium range models continue to keep the region under persistent
west-southwesterly upper-level flow through the majority of the long-
term forecast period. Ample moisture over the forecast area,
transient surface boundaries and periodic weak waves rippling through
the mid/upper flow, keeps POPs at least at good chance through the
period.

Without strong dynamics or low-level forcing, chances for organized
severe weather remain fairly low through the period. However, with
moderate instability and some weak shear, scattered strong to
isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out, especially during the
peak, diurnally driven, period of maximum instability each afternoon
into the early evenings. Bigger threat remains the potential for
heavy rain and localized flooding as moderate to high precipitable
water values support areas of moderate to heavy rain each day,
bringing streamflows up and keeping soils near saturation.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Earlier MVFR/scattered IFR ceilings have broken somewhat, though
borderline MVFR/VFR ceilings remain in some areas. Expect ceilings
to remain generally around 3000 feet through the afternoon at
ATL/AHN area sites. Some continued scattering is expected through
the evening with VFR ceilings predominant. MVFR to IFR ceilings
are expected to return by the 08-10z time frame Friday morning at
ATL/AHN area sites with less certainty for morning low cloud
potential at MCN/CSG. Showers and tsra will be most likely this
afternoon before gradually diminishing through the evening with
additional convection expected on Friday. Winds will be light and
largely variable between SW and SE, though a SW tendency is
anticipated this afternoon at ATL with SW tendency again by midday
Friday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low confidence on wind direction.
Medium confidence on all other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  86  70  89 /  50  60  50  40
Atlanta         72  85  72  87 /  50  60  40  40
Blairsville     66  80  66  83 /  50  60  40  40
Cartersville    71  85  71  87 /  40  60  40  40
Columbus        74  89  75  90 /  40  50  40  40
Gainesville     70  83  70  86 /  50  60  40  40
Macon           74  90  73  90 /  50  50  40  40
Rome            71  86  71  87 /  50  60  40  40
Peachtree City  72  86  71  88 /  50  60  40  40
Vidalia         74  90  74  91 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
400 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-111000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
400 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected. A few strong
storms are possible. The primary hazards will be gusty winds,
frequent lightning and very heavy rainfall. With soils at or
approaching saturation across much of north and central Georgia,
localized flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

There will be scattered thunderstorms each day, especially during
the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could be strong with
the main hazards being gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally
heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested, but spotters are encouraged to
submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

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