Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
306 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...
As has been the case lately, there is a smattering of showers and
thunderstorms across the area this afternoon. A weak surface
boundary continues to retreat back northward through the CWA with
weak easterly flow ahead of the retreating boundary. Regardless, the
airmass on both sides of the boundary remains moist with PWs around
2 inches. This will continue to support heavy rainfall in convection
this afternoon and evening with localized flooding issues again the
main concern. Showers and thunderstorms will persist into this
evening with overall coverage lessening into the overnight hours.
However, some rainfall will likely persist even into Friday morning.

This boundary will continue to slowly lift north of the area through
Friday morning. The southeast US will remain under a persistent
westerly upper flow on Friday with continued upper disturbances
affecting the area and bringing increased convection. At the risk of
sounding repetitive, with PWs again above 2" locally heavy rainfall
will be the primary concern, though a couple of stronger
thunderstorms will be possible during peak instability.

Temperatures on Friday will continue to be tempered by cloud cover,
especially in north Georgia where highs will remain a few degrees
below normal.

RW

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
A wet pattern will continue over the CWA through the long term,
although slightly drier conditions on Saturday will yield slightly
lower pops. Previous long term discussion follows...

17

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

Medium range models continue to keep the region under persistent
west-southwesterly upper-level flow through the majority of the long-
term forecast period. Ample moisture over the forecast area,
transient surface boundaries and periodic weak waves rippling through
the mid/upper flow, keeps POPs at least at good chance through the
period.

Without strong dynamics or low-level forcing, chances for organized
severe weather remain fairly low through the period. However, with
moderate instability and some weak shear, scattered strong to
isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out, especially during the
peak, diurnally driven, period of maximum instability each afternoon
into the early evenings. Bigger threat remains the potential for
heavy rain and localized flooding as moderate to high precipitable
water values support areas of moderate to heavy rain each day,
bringing streamflows up and keeping soils near saturation.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Earlier MVFR/scattered IFR ceilings have broken somewhat, though
borderline MVFR/VFR ceilings remain in some areas. Expect ceilings
to remain generally around 3000 feet through the afternoon at
ATL/AHN area sites. Some continued scattering is expected through
the evening with VFR ceilings predominant. MVFR to IFR ceilings
are expected to return by the 08-10z time frame Friday morning at
ATL/AHN area sites with less certainty for morning low cloud
potential at MCN/CSG. Showers and tsra will be most likely this
afternoon before gradually diminishing through the evening with
additional convection expected on Friday. Winds will be light and
largely variable between SW and SE, though a SW tendency is
anticipated this afternoon at ATL with SW tendency again by midday
Friday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low confidence on wind direction.
Medium confidence on all other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  86  70  89 /  50  60  50  40
Atlanta         72  85  72  87 /  50  60  40  40
Blairsville     66  80  66  83 /  50  60  40  40
Cartersville    71  85  71  87 /  40  60  40  40
Columbus        74  89  75  90 /  40  50  40  40
Gainesville     70  83  70  86 /  50  60  40  40
Macon           74  90  73  90 /  50  50  40  40
Rome            71  86  71  87 /  50  60  40  40
Peachtree City  72  86  71  88 /  50  60  40  40
Vidalia         74  90  74  91 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
400 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-111000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
400 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected. A few strong
storms are possible. The primary hazards will be gusty winds,
frequent lightning and very heavy rainfall. With soils at or
approaching saturation across much of north and central Georgia,
localized flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

There will be scattered thunderstorms each day, especially during
the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could be strong with
the main hazards being gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally
heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested, but spotters are encouraged to
submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
110 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2017

GAZ020-021-101745-
Cherokee GA-Bartow GA-
110 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHEROKEE AND BARTOW
COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

At 109 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Pine Log to near Cartersville...and moving northeast
at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Heavy rain...winds up to 40 mph...and pea sized hail.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Canton, Cartersville, Woodstock, Acworth, Holly Springs, Adairsville,
Euharlee, Emerson, White, Waleska, Cassville, Kellogg Creek, Red Top
Mountain State Park, Folsom, Hobgood Park, Funkhouser, Lake
Arrowhead, Oak Grove, Little River Landing and George Washington
Carver St Pk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3440 8487 3440 8473 3441 8473 3441 8458
      3438 8458 3438 8444 3407 8448 3408 8474
      3408 8496
TIME...MOT...LOC 1709Z 228DEG 17KT 3433 8473 3416 8485

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
157 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2017

GAZ002>005-007-101830-
Gilmer GA-Whitfield GA-Catoosa GA-Walker GA-Murray GA-
157 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GILMER...WHITFIELD...
SOUTHWESTERN CATOOSA...SOUTHERN WALKER AND MURRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 230
PM EDT...

At 157 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Conasauga Lake to Lafayette...and moving
southeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Heavy rain and winds up to 40 mph.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Dalton, Lafayette, Chatsworth, Ellijay, Varnell, Eton, Tunnel Hill,
East Ellijay, Crandall, Sumac, Conasauga Lake, Linwood, Villanow,
Cherry Log, Fort Mountain State Park, Naomi, Tails Creek, Ramhurst,
Suttles Mill and Noble.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3491 8462 3485 8462 3486 8449 3475 8428
      3461 8483 3462 8491 3463 8491 3462 8493
      3462 8506 3459 8506 3458 8511 3459 8531
      3471 8548 3476 8545 3495 8470
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 297DEG 7KT 3485 8468 3471 8526

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
233 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2017

GAZ002-004-005-007-011-012-019-101900-
Chattooga GA-Gilmer GA-Whitfield GA-Walker GA-Gordon GA-Murray GA-
Floyd GA-
233 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHATTOOGA...NORTHWESTERN
GILMER...SOUTHERN WHITFIELD...SOUTHERN WALKER...NORTHWESTERN
GORDON...MURRAY AND NORTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

At 232 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Chatsworth to Trion...and moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Dalton, Calhoun, Summerville, Chatsworth, Trion, Eton, Resaca, Center
Post, Crandall, Subligna, Lake Marvin, Conasauga Lake, Villanow, Fort
Mountain State Park, James H. Floyd State Park, Naomi, Tails Creek,
Ramhurst, Suttles Mill and Tidings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3491 8472 3485 8462 3476 8436 3440 8530
      3456 8552 3459 8553
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 261DEG 11KT 3478 8476 3454 8533

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
305 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2017

GAZ020-021-030>034-041-101930-
Polk GA-North Fulton GA-Cobb GA-Cherokee GA-Haralson GA-Bartow GA-
Gwinnett GA-Paulding GA-
305 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR POLK...NORTH FULTON...NORTHERN
COBB...SOUTHERN CHEROKEE...HARALSON...SOUTHERN BARTOW...GWINNETT AND
PAULDING COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 304 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Sweat Mountain to near Taylorsville to near Mars
Hills...and moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Heavy rain...up to 40 mph wind...and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Marietta, Lawrenceville, Canton, Cartersville, Dallas, Cedartown,
Buchanan, Sandy Springs, Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta, Dunwoody,
Milton, Kennesaw, Duluth, Woodstock, Acworth, Suwanee, Holly Springs
and Norcross.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3410 8520 3410 8505 3420 8504 3419 8430
      3417 8426 3410 8425 3405 8410 3408 8411
      3393 8387 3394 8427 3397 8433 3394 8435
      3394 8479 3381 8501 3381 8505 3378 8505
      3367 8521 3365 8530 3367 8534 3394 8540
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 279DEG 17KT 3404 8445 3405 8499 3388 8536

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
313 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2017

GAZ080-092-093-101945-
Macon GA-Schley GA-Taylor GA-
313 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MACON...SCHLEY AND
SOUTHWESTERN TAYLOR COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 313 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Murrays Crossroads, or
near Ellaville...moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Ellaville, Oglethorpe, Montezuma, Ideal, Murrays Crossroads,
Whitewater State Park, Fountainville, Rupert, La Crosse,
Andersonville National Historic, Clearview, Bumphead, Bartlett and
Walls Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3220 8443 3223 8443 3223 8441 3229 8441
      3230 8439 3239 8439 3250 8433 3233 8391
      3218 8404 3219 8409 3219 8413 3223 8414
      3223 8418 3216 8418 3216 8422
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 295DEG 18KT 3232 8428

WIND...40MPH