Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
331 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

As of 18z this afternoon...the mid and upper levels featured a
relentless ridge of high pressure over the western US and Southern
Plains...with an active northern stream featuring several shortwave
troughs and cyclonic flow across the Great Lakes and Northeast.
Latest sfc analysis reveals an area of broad low pressure across
southern New England/northern Mid Atlantic...with a low center
across Lake Ontario and another near Long Island. From the L Ontario
low extends a weak cool front across western PA SWWD across northern
KY and southern MO..while a weak sfc trough extends from the Long
Island low into the Carolinas and Georgia.

Convection is well underway once again across the CWA. Most likely
forcing behind this activity is the weak sfc trough located across
north Georgia. Overall evolution argues for pulse thunderstorms
driven by weak outflow boundaries...with perhaps a few cells merging
into loosely organized clusters. Main threat this afternoon and
evening will be strong downdrafts as SPC mesoanalysis reveals low
level lapse rates in excess of 7C/km and PW values near 2 inches.
Convective coverage should be on a downward trend after sunset
with loss of daytime heating...with some nuisance showers likely
lingering into the overnight.

Late in the overnight period into Tuesday could be interesting.
Current GOES-R IR imagery reveals some healthy convection across
LA/MS. At this point all medium-range models are picking up on a
convectively induced perturbation associated with this Gulf Coast
MCS moving into the CWA from the west late tonight. Although hi-res
solutions are not picking up on early morning precip at this
point...find it very hard to believe that upper level synoptic lift
will not have any impact on such a moist and unstable environment.
Not to mention this shortwave will also have a sfc trough to
interact with. Have increased POPs to account for this. Should the
convective perturbation dissipate upon reaching the CWA...there will
not be much shower activity. New EC data agrees with CMC GFS and NAM
that a vort max will be on our western border at 12z. In addition,
morning convection/showers could have an impact on diurnal
convection later in the day...not to mention high temperatures. At
this point it is hard to draw a solid conclusion on this forecast
until the LA/MS MCS evolution becomes more clear.

Kovacik

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

Extended range models continue to show a pattern that resembles
anything but late July. Strong shortwave dives out of the plains
late Fri into Sat and allows front to enter the area with even
some weak low pressure areas forming along the front. Moisture and
dynamics support categorical pops on Sat but dont want to go to
high just yet given such an anomalous pattern. Cooler temps in the
offing but still will feel summerlike with the abundant moisture.

Deese

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

LONG TERM

As the long term period begins...the forecast area remains on the
edge of the Bermuda high and in a weak upper trough. A frontal
boundary gets pushed into north GA early in the period and some
drying can be noted for a portion of the north. However not seeing
enough drying to remove pops completely...and we should expect a
continuation of mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. By
Saturday a long wave trough developing over the eastern states
should push another front southward into GA. However GFS and ECMWF
keep cyclonic flow over the southeast through the weekend. So have
continued with persistence pops. Temperatures should range around
normal numbers through the period.

41

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Complicated TAF cycle in store. For today, thunderstorms will
increase in coverage through early evening...with the threat for a
few strong downbursts. All sites have a TEMPO currently thru 22z
but this will likely need to be extended through at least 00z.
Could see some clearing to some extent tonight but focus then
turns to a convectively induced disturbance moving in from the
west. Forecast may be too optimistic right now...but potential is
there for MVFR/IFR cigs /perhaps lower/ along with an early
arrival of showers and embedded thunder /09z-12z?/. Potential for
fog will also exist. NW winds this afternoon will become more SW
overnight before becoming more NW Tuesday morning at less than
10kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on convective elements today
High on wind direction and speed
Low on all other elements.

Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  91  73  90 /  50  50  30  30
Atlanta         73  88  73  89 /  50  60  30  30
Blairsville     66  88  66  85 /  30  30  30  30
Cartersville    72  91  71  91 /  40  50  30  30
Columbus        75  87  73  91 /  50  60  50  30
Gainesville     72  89  72  88 /  40  50  30  30
Macon           74  89  74  91 /  50  60  50  40
Rome            72  92  72  92 /  30  40  30  20
Peachtree City  72  87  72  90 /  50  60  30  30
Vidalia         75  88  74  89 /  50  60  50  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kovacik
LONG TERM....Deese
AVIATION...Kovacik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
156 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-251800-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
156 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across the I20
corridor and will continue for parts of north and all of central
Georgia this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible. The main hazards with any storms
that develop will be strong gusty winds, heavy rainfall, frequent
lightning, and small hail. Given the possibility of multiple
rounds of thunderstorms affecting the same regions, isolated
instances of flash flooding are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible each day mainly in the
afternoon and evening...a few storms could be strong to
severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

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