Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
308 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Recent analysis of afternoon water vapor imagery reveals a mid level
synoptic pattern over the CONUS characterized by a persistent ridge
over the western US...and an amplifying cyclonic flow regime over
the eastern US. The most notable feature east of the Rockies is a
southeastward moving shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes.
MEanwhile at the sfc...a weak sfc front extended roughly from the
Great Lakes S/SW through IN,IL, MO, and AR...with a weak trough
extending down the Piedmont of the Carolinas into Georgia.

Rest of today and tonight: Forecast is complicated by numerous
outflow boundaries and convectively induced perturbations in the
mean flow. This morning's MCS over KY has diminished...although
its outflow boundary has helped several complexes develop over
eastern TN and western NC. Think highest concentration of
convective coverage will be across north Georgia where any larger
scale outflow could be influenced by orographic processes and
perhaps the weak sfc trough. Nonetheless...with MLCAPE between
2000-3000J/Kg across the entire CWA...storms could pop up
anywhere. Downburst winds the main threat with low level lapse
rates over 7C/km and PWs near 2 inches. The HRRR has been
consistent in showing redevelopment across KY/TN towards sunset
tonight /likely influenced by morning MCS and the weak front/. It
is possible some of this convection could impact far north Georgia
after midnight...though confidence is low given time of day and
weak flow. Showing slight POPs for now to reflect this
possibility...with a diminishing trend towards sunrise.

Much of the same story for Monday as sfc troughing continues and
Great Lakes shortwave moves into New England. Aforementioned weak
front will likely be closer to the state...but still far enough away
to not have a profound impact on convective initiation. Forecast
will be complicated again by outflow boundaries and convectively
induced perturbations in the mid levels. All things
considered...trend should still remain largely diurnally driven.

Temps will be hot...and it will be humid.

Kovacik

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
No major changes to the long term from the previous forecast. A weak
trough of low pressure will remain over the CWA early in the long
term. This will develop into a closed low over Georgia by Wednesday
and as the H5 ridge builds over the middle of the country, this will
push the low out of Georgia however there are discrepancies in the
models as to how much moisture will be pushed out as well. Due to
this will maintain pops across the CWA for the latter half of the
week. The next short wave will move out of the upper plains and
toward the CWA toward next weekend increasing the chances of precip
late in the week and next weekend. Temperatures will remain at or
near climate norms through the long term.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Typical summertime trends expected through this TAF cycle.
Convection has developed over the large majority of the CWA...with
either -SHRA or -TSRA in the general vicinity of all sites.
Expect coverage of storms to increase over the next several hours
before dissipating...with the threat for several strong wet
microbursts through sunset. Some mid level convective debris may
linger through the overnight hours before gradual clearing
commences and the diurnally driven cu field develops mid Monday
morning. Some fog could be possible Monday morning should heavy
downpours occur towards sunset...but coverage nor confidence high
enough to mention in TAFs. Storms will develop again Monday
afternoon. Opted to keep winds almost due west to perhaps slightly
northwest generally less than 10kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on all forecast elements.

Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          75  91  73  91 /  40  50  40  40
Atlanta         75  89  74  89 /  40  50  40  50
Blairsville     69  85  67  87 /  50  50  40  40
Cartersville    73  88  72  89 /  40  50  40  40
Columbus        75  92  75  88 /  40  50  40  60
Gainesville     74  88  73  89 /  40  50  40  40
Macon           75  92  74  90 /  40  50  40  50
Rome            72  89  73  90 /  40  50  40  40
Peachtree City  73  90  72  88 /  40  50  40  50
Vidalia         76  92  74  90 /  40  50  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kovacik
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Kovacik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
436 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-240845-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
436 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across north and
central Georgia this afternoon and evening. A few strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible. The main hazards with any
storms that develop will be strong gusty winds, heavy rainfall,
frequent lightning, and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible each day mainly in the
afternoon and evening...a few storms could be strong to
severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
658 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

GAZ027-036-038-232345-
Madison GA-Oglethorpe GA-Clarke GA-
658 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MADISON...
NORTHWESTERN OGLETHORPE AND EASTERN CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM
EDT...

At 657 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Smithonia, moving
east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind, dime sized hail, frequent lightning and
           heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Lexington, Comer, Winterville, Crawford, Colbert, Arnoldsville,
Carlton, Hull, Athens-Clarke County, Diamond Hill, Smithonia, Paoli,
Dunlap, Watson Mill Bridge State Park and Point Peter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3385 8300 3389 8326 3397 8331 3407 8328
      3412 8307 3408 8301 3406 8299 3405 8299
      3403 8294 3402 8294 3401 8293
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 264DEG 11KT 3399 8318

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
724 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

GAZ022-023-033-034-045-240015-
Hall GA-North Fulton GA-DeKalb GA-Forsyth GA-Gwinnett GA-
724 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HALL...NORTH
FULTON...NORTHERN DEKALB...SOUTHWESTERN FORSYTH AND GWINNETT COUNTIES
UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

At 723 PM EDT...strong thunderstorms extended from near Buford to
near Norcross, moving east at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind, dime sized hail, frequent lightning and
           heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Lawrenceville, Sandy Springs, Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta,
Dunwoody, Duluth, Sugar Hill, Snellville, Suwanee, Buford, Lilburn,
Chamblee, Norcross, Doraville, Braselton, Berkeley Lake, Rest Haven,
Tucker and Mountain Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3413 8381 3412 8382 3408 8384 3379 8410
      3388 8432 3400 8435 3418 8409
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 284DEG 6KT 3409 8397 3391 8418

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
729 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

GAZ024-025-027-036-240015-
Madison GA-Banks GA-Jackson GA-Clarke GA-
729 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN BANKS...
EASTERN JACKSON AND NORTHERN CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

At 728 PM EDT...strong thunderstorms extended from near Danielsville
to near Arcade, moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind, dime sized hail, frequent lightning and
           heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Jefferson, Commerce, Danielsville, Arcade, Nicholson, Comer,
Colbert, Ila, Hull, Athens-Clarke County, Westgate Park, the James
Holland Youth Sports Complex, Pocataligo, Diamond Hill, the Sandy
Creek Recreation Area, Oconee Heights, Barretts Mill, Paoli, Apple
Valley and Neese.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3424 8335 3422 8335 3424 8334 3419 8309
      3417 8310 3415 8306 3412 8305 3411 8303
      3410 8304 3407 8300 3404 8312 3405 8314
      3402 8318 3396 8345 3407 8363 3426 8347
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 283DEG 11KT 3416 8323 3407 8362

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
733 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

GAZ056>058-068-070-071-240015-
Butts GA-Lamar GA-Monroe GA-Spalding GA-Pike GA-Henry GA-
733 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BUTTS...LAMAR...NORTHWESTERN
MONROE...EASTERN SPALDING...NORTHEASTERN PIKE AND SOUTHEASTERN HENRY
COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

At 732 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Orchard Hill, moving
east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind, dime sized hail, frequent lightning and
           heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Griffin, Barnesville, Jackson, Forsyth, Locust Grove, Flovilla,
Milner, Jenkinsburg, Orchard Hill, Aldora, East Griffin, Walker Mill,
Blount, Luella, Liberty Hill, Collier, Johnstonville, Highland Mills,
Towalaga and Experiment.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3302 8427 3328 8433 3344 8401 3324 8387
      3297 8393
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 266DEG 13KT 3321 8421

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH