Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
308 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Recent analysis of afternoon water vapor imagery reveals a mid level
synoptic pattern over the CONUS characterized by a persistent ridge
over the western US...and an amplifying cyclonic flow regime over
the eastern US. The most notable feature east of the Rockies is a
southeastward moving shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes.
MEanwhile at the sfc...a weak sfc front extended roughly from the
Great Lakes S/SW through IN,IL, MO, and AR...with a weak trough
extending down the Piedmont of the Carolinas into Georgia.

Rest of today and tonight: Forecast is complicated by numerous
outflow boundaries and convectively induced perturbations in the
mean flow. This morning's MCS over KY has diminished...although
its outflow boundary has helped several complexes develop over
eastern TN and western NC. Think highest concentration of
convective coverage will be across north Georgia where any larger
scale outflow could be influenced by orographic processes and
perhaps the weak sfc trough. Nonetheless...with MLCAPE between
2000-3000J/Kg across the entire CWA...storms could pop up
anywhere. Downburst winds the main threat with low level lapse
rates over 7C/km and PWs near 2 inches. The HRRR has been
consistent in showing redevelopment across KY/TN towards sunset
tonight /likely influenced by morning MCS and the weak front/. It
is possible some of this convection could impact far north Georgia
after midnight...though confidence is low given time of day and
weak flow. Showing slight POPs for now to reflect this
possibility...with a diminishing trend towards sunrise.

Much of the same story for Monday as sfc troughing continues and
Great Lakes shortwave moves into New England. Aforementioned weak
front will likely be closer to the state...but still far enough away
to not have a profound impact on convective initiation. Forecast
will be complicated again by outflow boundaries and convectively
induced perturbations in the mid levels. All things
considered...trend should still remain largely diurnally driven.

Temps will be hot...and it will be humid.

Kovacik

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
No major changes to the long term from the previous forecast. A weak
trough of low pressure will remain over the CWA early in the long
term. This will develop into a closed low over Georgia by Wednesday
and as the H5 ridge builds over the middle of the country, this will
push the low out of Georgia however there are discrepancies in the
models as to how much moisture will be pushed out as well. Due to
this will maintain pops across the CWA for the latter half of the
week. The next short wave will move out of the upper plains and
toward the CWA toward next weekend increasing the chances of precip
late in the week and next weekend. Temperatures will remain at or
near climate norms through the long term.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Typical summertime trends expected through this TAF cycle.
Convection has developed over the large majority of the CWA...with
either -SHRA or -TSRA in the general vicinity of all sites.
Expect coverage of storms to increase over the next several hours
before dissipating...with the threat for several strong wet
microbursts through sunset. Some mid level convective debris may
linger through the overnight hours before gradual clearing
commences and the diurnally driven cu field develops mid Monday
morning. Some fog could be possible Monday morning should heavy
downpours occur towards sunset...but coverage nor confidence high
enough to mention in TAFs. Storms will develop again Monday
afternoon. Opted to keep winds almost due west to perhaps slightly
northwest generally less than 10kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on all forecast elements.

Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          75  91  73  91 /  40  50  40  40
Atlanta         75  89  74  89 /  40  50  40  50
Blairsville     69  85  67  87 /  50  50  40  40
Cartersville    73  88  72  89 /  40  50  40  40
Columbus        75  92  75  88 /  40  50  40  60
Gainesville     74  88  73  89 /  40  50  40  40
Macon           75  92  74  90 /  40  50  40  50
Rome            72  89  73  90 /  40  50  40  40
Peachtree City  73  90  72  88 /  40  50  40  50
Vidalia         76  92  74  90 /  40  50  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kovacik
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Kovacik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
436 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-240845-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
436 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across north and
central Georgia this afternoon and evening. A few strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible. The main hazards with any
storms that develop will be strong gusty winds, heavy rainfall,
frequent lightning, and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible each day mainly in the
afternoon and evening...a few storms could be strong to
severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
535 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

GAZ097-109-232215-
Laurens GA-Dodge GA-
535 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAURENS AND NORTHERN
DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 534 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Rentz and Cadwell.
This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind, pea sized hail, frequent lightning and
           very heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain will cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Dexter, Cadwell, Rentz, Harlow, Plainfield and Cedar Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3231 8316 3251 8301 3243 8279 3227 8285
      3217 8302
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 305DEG 3KT 3236 8301

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
537 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

GAZ083-095-096-107-232215-
Houston GA-Bleckley GA-Twiggs GA-Pulaski GA-
537 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HOUSTON...
NORTHWESTERN BLECKLEY...SOUTHERN TWIGGS AND NORTHWESTERN PULASKI
COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 536 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Magnolia. This storm
was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind, pea sized hail, frequent lightning and
           very heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain will cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cochran, Hawkinsville, Royal, Coley Station, Tarversville, the
Ocmulgee Public Fishing Area, Paulk, Cary, Porter and Magnolia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3242 8360 3254 8360 3259 8348 3256 8326
      3238 8334 3229 8354
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 305DEG 3KT 3246 8348

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
602 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

GAZ076-086-232245-
Jefferson GA-Emanuel GA-
602 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND
NORTHERN EMANUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 601 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Moxley, moving east
at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind, dime sized hail, frequent lightning and
           heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain will cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Louisville, Wadley, Bartow, Midville, Summertown, Three Points,
Moxley and Colemans Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3274 8226 3282 8252 3286 8252 3288 8251
      3292 8251 3294 8253 3300 8252 3306 8229
      3293 8227 3284 8232 3283 8230 3283 8226
      3281 8221 3281 8219
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 279DEG 11KT 3291 8239

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
606 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

GAZ083-095>097-107-109-232300-
Houston GA-Laurens GA-Bleckley GA-Dodge GA-Twiggs GA-Pulaski GA-
606 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HOUSTON...LAURENS...
BLECKLEY...NORTHWESTERN DODGE...SOUTHERN TWIGGS AND NORTHERN PULASKI
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 604 PM EDT...strong thunderstorms extended from near Rentz to
Rowland to near Magnolia. These storms were nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent lightning and very heavy
           rain.

  IMPACT...Heavy rain will cause temporary flooding of roadways and
           low-lying areas as well as rising water on creeks and
           streams. Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing
           around of light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Dublin, Cochran, Eastman, Hawkinsville, Chester, Dexter, Dudley,
Cadwell, Rentz, Dubois, Tarversville, Plainfield, Empire, Cedar
Grove, Mobley Crossing, Roddy, Baileys Park, Rowland, Royal and
Ocmulgee Public Fishing Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3253 8306 3259 8352 3250 8363 3228 8357
      3220 8328 3218 8292 3231 8285 3246 8283
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 111DEG 4KT 3236 8301 3241 8319 3244 8351

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
615 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

GAZ019-020-030-031-041-232300-
Polk GA-Haralson GA-Bartow GA-Paulding GA-Floyd GA-
615 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN POLK...NORTHEASTERN
HARALSON...SOUTHERN BARTOW...NORTHWESTERN PAULDING AND SOUTHEASTERN
FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 615 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Euharlee to Aragon to near Felton...and moving
southeast at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind, dime sized hail, frequent lightning and
           heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Cartersville, Buchanan, Rockmart, Euharlee, Emerson, Aragon,
Kingston, Braswell, Taylorsville, Yorkville, Fish Creek, Eubank Lake,
Antioch, Van Wert, Seney, Draketown, Felton and Stilesboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3412 8516 3424 8494 3420 8469 3398 8491
      3381 8501 3381 8505 3374 8505 3371 8507
      3371 8508 3382 8525
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 295DEG 5KT 3413 8492 3406 8507 3386 8515

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
647 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

GAZ020-021-031-032-232330-
Cobb GA-Cherokee GA-Bartow GA-Paulding GA-
647 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COBB...SOUTHWESTERN
CHEROKEE...SOUTHEASTERN BARTOW AND NORTHEASTERN PAULDING COUNTIES
UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 646 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Emerson, moving east
at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind, dime sized hail, frequent lightning and
           heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Marietta, Canton, Cartersville, Kennesaw, Woodstock, Acworth, Holly
Springs, Emerson, Kellogg Creek, Red Top Mountain State Park, Oak
Grove, Kennesaw State University, Little River Landing, George
Washington Carver State Park, Lebanon, Sutallee, Hobgood Park and
Bridgemill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3404 8480 3418 8479 3427 8456 3412 8448
      3395 8453
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 267DEG 16KT 3412 8475

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH