Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
727 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 427 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...
Short term models have initialized well and are in good agreement as
far as handling of the elongated trough slowly sagging southward
through the forecast area.  Proximity of the trough and weak
impulses moving through the upper level flow, as well as weak
surface boundary will continue chances for shower and thunderstorm
development through the short term periods.  For today, models are
showing decent instability...2000 to 3000 J/kg...mainly north of a
CSG-AHN line this afternoon with some shear noted as well. Expect
some storms to become strong to severe across the aforementioned
area, especially as limited cloud cover this morning will allow for
good heating through this afternoon.  The main threats with any
storms through this evening will be gusty winds, frequent lightning,
small hail and heavy rain.  Models indicating storms will linger
through the evening hours and taper off towards midnight. Models
push upper trough/surface wave further south tomorrow with the main
focus south of an Atlanta to Athens line. Once again expect isolated
strong to severe storms expected with gusty winds, frequent
lightning, small hail and heavy rain as the main threats with
instability noted across the area once again.

Temperatures will remain near normal through the period.  Given the
lack of low clouds this morning have gone above guidance for
afternoon temperatures today.

Atwell

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...
A slow moving cold front is expected to move to central GA and
become stationary in the Saturday night to Sunday time frame.
This will favor the best shower and storm chances over central
GA Saturday night...Sunday and through Monday.

Starting Tuesday...the stationary front looks to dissipate and
precip chances move n with chance pops across the entire forecast
area Wednesday and Thursday as a fairly typical summer time pattern
and fairly moist airmass predominates.

Forecast temperatures are running close to normal this long term
period.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Showers continue to develop and move across portions of north GA,
with little impacts to TAF sites through 15Z. Expect VFR
conditions to prevail...with FEW-SCT030-040 developing 15-17Z.
Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon will focus along a slowly
sagging boundary with MVFR CIGS expected in the vicinity of the
storms. Winds will remain out of the west..initially 5kts or less
then increasing to 8-12kts after 15z...with higher gusts with any
thunderstorms.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium to high confidence all elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          91  71  90  69 /  40  30  20  20
Atlanta         89  72  89  70 /  40  40  30  30
Blairsville     82  66  82  64 /  40  20  30  10
Cartersville    87  71  88  68 /  40  30  30  20
Columbus        93  75  94  73 /  40  40  30  30
Gainesville     87  71  87  69 /  40  30  30  10
Macon           94  73  92  72 /  40  30  30  30
Rome            88  71  88  68 /  40  20  30  20
Peachtree City  90  71  90  69 /  40  40  30  30
Vidalia         95  76  94  74 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...

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