Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
745 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

.UPDATE...

12z Aviation update below.

Baker

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 317 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017/

.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
Low progression open trough to the NW is progged to get some
assistance from some longwave energy entering into the midwest today
as it comes more into phase to shift the axis farther SE tonight
into Friday. Forcing doesn't seem that impressive as the system is
rather elongated with only a weak translated sfc front, though the
environment will have a decent amount of conditional instability to
work with (on the order of 2000-2500 J/kg today and possibly a bit
higher Friday). Midlevel thermal profiles support development of
isolated strong/severe storms given enhanced updrafts, which has
been the trend here of recent days anyway. Will keep chance pops
today across northern majority and likely in the far north closest
to the forcing. Have pops with general chance transition as the
feature spreads SE into central GA by Friday afternoon. Not
confident on overall coverage and timing Friday to include any
likely mention at the moment.

Temps today for most locations in the upper 80s north to mid 90s SE
coupled with uncomfortable dewpoints in the low 70s will result in
afternoon heat indices of upper 90s to low 100s. A few spots in east
central GA could flirt with the 105 mark, though should be overall
outside heat advisory criteria. Slightly cooler temps expected
Friday with frontal system and associated cloud coverage influence.

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...
A slow moving cold front approaches n GA Friday night and is
forecast to move to the N to central GA area on Saturday. Precip
potential should diminish Friday night but develop again on
Saturday...peaking in the afternoon for most areas.

Highest pops look to favor central GA on Sunday and Monday with
the front or surface trough stationary over the area.

With the pattern changing little...fairly typical summer pops
for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday with a moist
airmass over the forecast area.

Forecast temperatures are running within 1 to 3 degrees of normal.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
VFR conditions for most locations with spotty MVFR vsbys possible
here near sunrise. Cu field expected in 4-5 kft today with
greater coverage for the northern sites, along with increasing
chance for convection as weak front/disturbance approaches from
the NW. Already have had early showers/storms just north of the
sites this morning. Have included a prob30/tempo group for -TSRA
after about 20z today near KATL (slightly earlier north). Winds a
bit greater magnitude today with strengthening gradient and
should be WSW 8-10 kts for most areas. Could see isolated showers
or a storm into the overnight but not confident enough to include
other than a return of VCSH Friday morning.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium to low on precip timing/coverage.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          91  72  89  71 /  20  30  40  20
Atlanta         90  73  87  72 /  30  30  40  20
Blairsville     83  67  82  66 /  60  60  40  20
Cartersville    89  71  87  71 /  40  40  40  20
Columbus        94  75  91  74 /  20  30  50  40
Gainesville     87  71  86  71 /  30  30  40  20
Macon           94  74  92  74 /  10  20  40  30
Rome            89  71  87  72 /  50  50  40  20
Peachtree City  91  72  88  71 /  20  30  50  20
Vidalia         95  76  94  76 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
430 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
430 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms can be expected over north
and portions of central Georgia this afternoon and evening.
A few storms will be strong to severe from Atlanta to Athens and
north. The main hazards will be strong to damaging wind gusts and
frequent lightning. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, most
so during the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could be
strong to severe with gusty winds...frequent lightning and
locally heavy rainfall as the main hazards. Brief localized flooding
of poor drainage areas will also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1002 AM EDT THU JUL 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW BUCKHORN TAVERN   34.51N  84.07W
07/05/2017                   LUMPKIN            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN ALONG BUCK RUN EAST

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1701004

THIEM

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