Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
743 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 335 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
Not much change to the airmass that last couple of days across the
region with scattered to numerous thunderstorms moving into far
northern GA (especially the NW tier) this afternoon. Some of these
storms could become strong to severe. The main threat being gusty
winds, heavy rain and frequent lightning. There could also be some
small hail for the more potent storms. With plenty of MUCAPE and
DCAPE across the area, these should continue over the next several
hours. However, they will be somewhat disorganized given the lack of
shear. Do not anticipate much activity across the metro into Athens
and points south given much of the forcing is further north.
Although, given we do have enough instability and some residual
boundaries in place, we can not rule out isolated storms later this
afternoon. By the overnight we should have little coverage across
the entire region. Lows in the upper 60s to low 70s with cooler air
across the higher terrain.

Tomorrow expect a very similar weather pattern with most of the
afternoon convection across north GA with the upper level support
still lofted north of the region.  Given we keep having most of the
precipitation activity across the north, we need to keep a close eye
on the potential for localized flooding.  The other threats from
these storms will be gusty winds and frequent lightning.

High temperatures will be warm...perhaps a couple degrees above
normal. Add humidity and the heat index values will climb to around
100 across central GA.

26

LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
Overall pattern remarkably similar through the entire long term
period. Large, high-amplitude ridge over the western CONUS remains
centered near 110W longitude and broad, weak upper troughing
persists over the east. While individual shortwaves move through
the mean ridge/trough wave pattern, temperatures and rain chances
essentially remain the same.

This weekend, we will be teased by a weak cold front, associated
with whats left of upper trough over the central CONUS today.
Earlier model forecasts of this front promised to bring slightly
cooler and drier air to north GA. 12Z models continue trend to
renege on this promise. Will likely only see very slight drying
over far north GA on Friday night and Saturday.

While pattern remains nearly static through the period, not seeing
any significant hazards either (such as large scale flooding or
tropical cyclones) for which we are fortunate.

Previous long term discussion follows.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017/
/Thursday Night through Tuesday/... An upper level trough will be
moving to the area Thursday night and Friday along with a weak
cold front moving to far n GA before likely dissipating. This will
give potential for showers and thunderstorms...favoring n GA
Thursday night and then a little farther s more into central GA on
Friday...as a surface trough becomes more enhanced. Forecast
temperatures are expected to be within 2-3 degrees of normal
Thursday night and Friday.

Another weak cold front will move into the forecast area Saturday
and become stationary Sunday...potentially drifting N Monday and
Tuesday. This will continue chances for showers and thunderstorms
across the area on Saturday with showers and storms favoring central
GA Sunday and Monday. A period of weak NW flow aloft could bring
poorly forecast short waves that would enhance any convection until
this flow diminishes by Tuesday.

Forecast temperatures are expected to be within a few degrees of
normal.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been a nuisance to all
sites except CSG over the last few hours. As the sun sets expect
much of the activity to diminish with VFR conditions through the
overnight hours. Some patchy fog will be possible
overnight...especially across areas that received some heavy
rainfall this afternoon and evening. Should have a clear start to
the morning on Thursday...with a CU field developing between
4-5kft by mid to late morning. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible Thurs afternoon...but for now will keep mention out of
most TAFs. Winds will remain west between 5-12kts Thursday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low to medium on fog potential.
High on all other elements.

Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  92  71  90 /  60  20  20  40
Atlanta         71  90  72  88 /  50  20  20  40
Blairsville     65  84  66  83 /  60  40  40  40
Cartersville    69  90  70  87 /  60  40  40  40
Columbus        73  94  74  91 /  20  10  20  40
Gainesville     70  89  71  87 /  60  30  20  40
Macon           72  95  73  92 /  50  10  10  40
Rome            69  90  71  88 /  60  50  40  30
Peachtree City  70  92  71  88 /  50  20  20  40
Vidalia         73  95  75  94 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kovacik
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Kovacik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
554 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-062200-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
554 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected over
portions of north Georgia this evening. The most likely area will
be Atlanta to Athens and north. The main hazards will be strong
to damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning. Brief heavy rain
will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, most
so during the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could be
strong to severe with gusty winds...frequent lightning and
locally heavy rain as the main hazards. Brief localized flooding
of poor drainage areas will also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
748 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

GAZ059-072-060030-
Jones GA-Jasper GA-
748 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JONES AND
SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

At 747 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Round Oak, moving
east at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail, heavy rain and
           frequent lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Gray, Round Oak, Bradley, Wayside, Hillsboro and Jarrell Plantation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3302 8372 3303 8372 3304 8374 3306 8375
      3308 8377 3310 8378 3323 8364 3314 8351
      3301 8353
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 250DEG 9KT 3310 8367

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
848 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

GAZ061-062-074>076-060115-
Jefferson GA-Washington GA-Glascock GA-Hancock GA-Warren GA-
848 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN JEFFERSON...NORTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON...GLASCOCK...EASTERN HANCOCK AND WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 915
PM EDT...

At 848 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Jewell to near Downs...and moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph...pea sized hail and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Warrenton, Gibson, Wrens, Stapleton, Avera, Mitchell, Camak, Edge
Hill, Edgehill, Hamburg State Park, Shoals, Downs, Jewell, Beall
Springs, Mayfield, Grange, Stapletons Crossroads, Matthews, Agricola
and Reese.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3315 8227 3300 8273 3335 8291 3348 8260
      3341 8255 3335 8255 3336 8253 3334 8250
      3334 8245 3333 8242 3331 8240 3331 8234
      3330 8231 3327 8229 3327 8226 3323 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 256DEG 12KT 3330 8282 3311 8266

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

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