Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
316 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017

.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
Happy 4th of July!

A series of impulses moving across northern GA will advect east
through the afternoon.  This is helping to generate numerous
thunderstorms across north AL and GA this afternoon.  This activity
will continue through the next several hours.  Taking a look at the
mesoscale analysis, we have ample CAPE, however we lack shear with a
cap noted at 500mb. We do not anticipate these storms to become
severe, but some may become strong. The main threats with these
storms will be gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Small hail is also
possible. As these storms continue to march east, they should
dissipate by sunset with loss of heating. Clearing should start to
take shape through the overnight. For those wanting to observe
fireworks later this evening, it seems that the weather will support
the man-made type rather than those made by mother nature.

Expect clear and calm conditions overnight.  Patchy fog may develop
tomorrow morning, especially across north GA where we observe more
precipitation.

Anticipate thunderstorm development again tomorrow across north GA,
although the coverage should be less than what we are observing
today.  The forcing aloft seems to be further north.  So we will be
relying more on surface based instability.  However, if we see these
impulses further south, than expect this to correlate with increased
precipitation coverage.  Any thunderstorms that do develop may
become strong with isolated severe due to ample MUCAPE and marginal
shear.

West winds will continue through the period with temperatures near
normal.  High temps in the mid/upper 80s across north GA and low/mid
90s across central GA.  Lows in the upper 60s to low 70s area wide;
cooler in the high elevations.

26

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday/...
Unsettled weather will persist for the end of the week into the
first part of next week.

Two boundaries are expected to impact the CWFA for Thursday into the
weekend. Both boundaries look to be weak, but will serve as a
focusing mechanism for convection. The first front looks to move
slowly south across the CWFA Thursday into Friday, settling across
south central GA. The second boundary begins to impact the CWFA on
Saturday, and become stationary through the early part of next week.

Even though both fronts should be weak, surface instability will
still be present. Little perturbations aloft could interact with the
boundaries, serving to steepen lapse rates. The combination of
surface instability and steep lapse rates could enhance convection -
increasing the potential for strong to severe storms. These
disturbances aloft are very difficult to time - so have kept the
pops broadbrushed. However, the highest values should be centered
around the fronts.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION... 18Z Update... VFR conditions expected through much
of the TAF period. However, with scattered convection possible
this afternoon, mainly at the northern TAF sites, anticipate
reduced vsbys/cigs to occur is accordance with any precipitation
activity. Any showers or thunderstorms should dwindle by sunset
with clouds clearing out through the evening hours. Expect clear
and calm conditions overnight. Some fog may develop across north
GA, but it depends on the location of any precipitation we get
this afternoon. Expect some CU development by mid-morning
Wednesday. Coverage of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon looks
limited at this point. West winds will continue through the TAF
period, 8-12kts during the afternoons.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium with convection timing and coverage.
High with all other elements.

26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          90  70  92  72 /  40  20  20  10
Atlanta         89  72  90  73 /  40  10  20  10
Blairsville     81  65  84  66 /  50  30  30  20
Cartersville    88  70  90  71 /  60  20  30  20
Columbus        94  72  94  74 /  10   5   5   5
Gainesville     86  70  89  71 /  60  20  30  10
Macon           94  71  94  73 /  20   5   5   5
Rome            88  70  90  72 /  60  20  30  20
Peachtree City  90  70  91  71 /  30   5  10   5
Vidalia         95  74  96  75 /  10   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
357 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-051200-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
357 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

For areas along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible through the early evening
hours. There is some potential for isolated severe thunderstorms,
but widespread severe weather is not anticipated. The main hazard
from any severe thunderstorm would be damaging wind gusts. Even
the garden variety thunderstorms would be capable of producing
gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning
strikes.

Areas just south of the Interstate 20 corridor could have isolated
showers and thunderstorms to develop through the evening hours.
Gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning strikes
will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could be
strong to possibly severe with gusty winds as well as locally
heavy rain. The best chances of isolated strong to severe storms
will come on Thursday and Friday as a weak front moves across the
region.

Due to the heavy rain, brief localized flooding of poor drainage
areas is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
357 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

GAZ025-027-036-038-042030-
Madison GA-Jackson GA-Oglethorpe GA-Clarke GA-
357 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...
NORTHWESTERN OGLETHORPE AND NORTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
EDT...

At 356 PM EDT...strong thunderstorms extended from near Pocataligo
to near Danielsville and Neese, moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail, heavy rain and
           frequent lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Danielsville, Nicholson, Comer, Colbert, Ila, Carlton, Hull,
Athens-Clarke County, Pocataligo, Diamond Hill, Smithonia, Sandy
Creek Recreation Area, Barretts Mill, Paoli, Neese, Watson Mill
Bridge State Park and Point Peter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3426 8312 3423 8308 3417 8310 3415 8306
      3409 8302 3408 8300 3405 8299 3403 8294
      3402 8294 3401 8293 3396 8300 3403 8350
      3423 8335 3426 8331 3426 8330 3425 8327
      3424 8317 3427 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 271DEG 19KT 3425 8325 3419 8318 3408 8337

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
402 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

GAZ023>025-042045-
Banks GA-Hall GA-Jackson GA-
402 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BANKS...SOUTHEASTERN HALL AND
NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 400 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was between Gainesville and
Gillsville, moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail, heavy rain and
           frequent lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Jefferson, Commerce, Homer, Lula, Maysville, Pendergrass, Gillsville,
Talmo, Peach State Speedway, Apple Valley, Pinefield Crossroads and
Banks Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3442 8338 3432 8339 3427 8334 3425 8334
      3421 8336 3420 8340 3414 8340 3419 8377
      3437 8375 3445 8339
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 275DEG 25KT 3428 8367

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

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