Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
316 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017

.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
Happy 4th of July!

A series of impulses moving across northern GA will advect east
through the afternoon.  This is helping to generate numerous
thunderstorms across north AL and GA this afternoon.  This activity
will continue through the next several hours.  Taking a look at the
mesoscale analysis, we have ample CAPE, however we lack shear with a
cap noted at 500mb. We do not anticipate these storms to become
severe, but some may become strong. The main threats with these
storms will be gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Small hail is also
possible. As these storms continue to march east, they should
dissipate by sunset with loss of heating. Clearing should start to
take shape through the overnight. For those wanting to observe
fireworks later this evening, it seems that the weather will support
the man-made type rather than those made by mother nature.

Expect clear and calm conditions overnight.  Patchy fog may develop
tomorrow morning, especially across north GA where we observe more
precipitation.

Anticipate thunderstorm development again tomorrow across north GA,
although the coverage should be less than what we are observing
today.  The forcing aloft seems to be further north.  So we will be
relying more on surface based instability.  However, if we see these
impulses further south, than expect this to correlate with increased
precipitation coverage.  Any thunderstorms that do develop may
become strong with isolated severe due to ample MUCAPE and marginal
shear.

West winds will continue through the period with temperatures near
normal.  High temps in the mid/upper 80s across north GA and low/mid
90s across central GA.  Lows in the upper 60s to low 70s area wide;
cooler in the high elevations.

26

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday/...
Unsettled weather will persist for the end of the week into the
first part of next week.

Two boundaries are expected to impact the CWFA for Thursday into the
weekend. Both boundaries look to be weak, but will serve as a
focusing mechanism for convection. The first front looks to move
slowly south across the CWFA Thursday into Friday, settling across
south central GA. The second boundary begins to impact the CWFA on
Saturday, and become stationary through the early part of next week.

Even though both fronts should be weak, surface instability will
still be present. Little perturbations aloft could interact with the
boundaries, serving to steepen lapse rates. The combination of
surface instability and steep lapse rates could enhance convection -
increasing the potential for strong to severe storms. These
disturbances aloft are very difficult to time - so have kept the
pops broadbrushed. However, the highest values should be centered
around the fronts.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION... 18Z Update... VFR conditions expected through much
of the TAF period. However, with scattered convection possible
this afternoon, mainly at the northern TAF sites, anticipate
reduced vsbys/cigs to occur is accordance with any precipitation
activity. Any showers or thunderstorms should dwindle by sunset
with clouds clearing out through the evening hours. Expect clear
and calm conditions overnight. Some fog may develop across north
GA, but it depends on the location of any precipitation we get
this afternoon. Expect some CU development by mid-morning
Wednesday. Coverage of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon looks
limited at this point. West winds will continue through the TAF
period, 8-12kts during the afternoons.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium with convection timing and coverage.
High with all other elements.

26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          90  70  92  72 /  40  20  20  10
Atlanta         89  72  90  73 /  40  10  20  10
Blairsville     81  65  84  66 /  50  30  30  20
Cartersville    88  70  90  71 /  60  20  30  20
Columbus        94  72  94  74 /  10   5   5   5
Gainesville     86  70  89  71 /  60  20  30  10
Macon           94  71  94  73 /  20   5   5   5
Rome            88  70  90  72 /  60  20  30  20
Peachtree City  90  70  91  71 /  30   5  10   5
Vidalia         95  74  96  75 /  10   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
250 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-051200-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
250 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across much of north Georgia through the evening hours. The best
chances for thunderstorms will be north of the Interstate 20
corridor. For areas along and just south of the Interstate 20
corridor, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected.
Frequent lightning...gusty winds...and locally heavy rainfall will
be the primary hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could be
strong to possibly severe with gusty winds as well as locally
heavy rain. The best chances of isolated strong to severe storms
will come on Thursday and Friday as a weak front moves across the
region.

Due to the heavy rain, brief localized flooding of poor drainage
areas is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
213 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

GAZ005-007-012>014-019>021-030>032-041900-
Gilmer GA-Polk GA-Dawson GA-Cobb GA-Cherokee GA-Gordon GA-Bartow GA-
Pickens GA-Paulding GA-Murray GA-Floyd GA-
213 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILMER...POLK...WESTERN DAWSON...
NORTHWESTERN COBB...CHEROKEE...EASTERN GORDON...BARTOW...PICKENS...
NORTHERN PAULDING...SOUTHEASTERN MURRAY AND SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

At 211 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms extended from Carters
to Fairmount, Kingston, Taylorsville and Cedartown, moving east at
35 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail, frequent cloud-to-
           ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Marietta, Canton, Cartersville, Calhoun, Dallas, Cedartown, Jasper,
Ellijay, Kennesaw, Woodstock, Acworth, Holly Springs, Adairsville,
Rockmart, Euharlee, Hiram, Emerson, Ball Ground, Nelson and Aragon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3407 8541 3425 8503 3472 8476 3474 8426
      3467 8425 3464 8420 3461 8419 3439 8423
      3412 8439 3411 8442 3407 8442 3390 8462
      3391 8539
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 273DEG 28KT 3467 8463 3442 8470 3404 8503 3400
8539

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
251 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

GAZ013>015-020>023-030>034-041930-
Hall GA-Polk GA-Dawson GA-North Fulton GA-Cobb GA-Cherokee GA-
Bartow GA-Forsyth GA-Gwinnett GA-Pickens GA-Paulding GA-Lumpkin GA-
251 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN HALL...SOUTHEASTERN
POLK...DAWSON...NORTH FULTON...COBB...CHEROKEE...SOUTHEASTERN
BARTOW...FORSYTH...NORTHWESTERN GWINNETT...EASTERN PICKENS...NORTHERN
PAULDING AND SOUTHERN LUMPKIN COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 250 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms extended from near
Jasper to Holly Springs and Rockmart, moving east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail, frequent lightning and
           heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Marietta, Gainesville, Canton, Dallas, Cumming, Dahlonega, Jasper,
Dawsonville, Sandy Springs, Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta, Smyrna,
Dunwoody, Milton, Kennesaw, Duluth, Woodstock, Acworth and Sugar
Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3393 8512 3416 8467 3429 8453 3443 8444
      3455 8440 3450 8381 3433 8379 3402 8413
      3396 8430 3397 8434 3394 8435 3388 8452
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 274DEG 31KT 3446 8426 3438 8425 3424 8441 3407
8460 3400 8480 3396 8493

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
330 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

GAZ014>016-022>025-042015-
Banks GA-Hall GA-Jackson GA-Dawson GA-Forsyth GA-White GA-Lumpkin GA-
330 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BANKS...HALL...
NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON...NORTHEASTERN FORSYTH...
WHITE AND SOUTHEASTERN LUMPKIN COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 328 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms extending from near
Dahlonega to Chestatee, moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail, heavy rain and
           frequent lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Gainesville, Dahlonega, Cleveland, Flowery Branch, Oakwood, Lula,
Clermont, Helen, Gillsville, Talmo, Candler, Mossy Creek, Aqualand
Park, Chestatee, Murrayville, Oscarville, Garland, Leaf, War Hill
Park and Sautee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3469 8364 3465 8366 3462 8364 3458 8364
      3455 8362 3453 8363 3451 8367 3443 8361
      3445 8359 3442 8358 3419 8369 3419 8405
      3457 8400 3474 8363
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 259DEG 20KT 3449 8395 3428 8398

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH