Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
659 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 344 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

A weak circulation persists vicinity of southern AL this afternoon.
Models continue to show deeper moisture streaming from the northern
Gulf into western GA...and this should be the favored area for
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A convective
complex drifting into middle TN will have to be watched as there is
a potential for a few strong storms across the northwest later
tonight. Yet another complex was currently crossing the MS river.
Any outflow boundaries from these systems could affect our area
overnight...so have included likely for the north before 06z and
into Monday morning. Also...a frontal boundary should be sagging
into TN late tonight and this will also support the deeper moisture
and instability for north GA. Will also be watching the Gulf for
tropical development that could potentially increase pops across our
central zones toward the end of this forecast period.

Mav/Met temperatures look reasonable and have stayed close.

41

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

Considerable uncertainty remains in the long-term forecast period,
primarily with respect to the eventual evolution of potential
tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico. 12z model solutions have
come into a bit better agreement with the track of the tropical low
as the GFS, which had earlier indicated a more easterly track into
the Florida panhandle, has shifted the track farther west toward the
Louisiana coast. The GFS remains the farthest eastward solution
while other synoptic models favor a track into the western Gulf.
Regardless of the eventual track, the extended forecast will still
present plenty of opportunities for rainfall as abundant Gulf
moisture is transported into the area ahead of a slowly-progressing
weak cold front. Given this setup, locally heavy rainfall amounts
will be a concern through the week ahead.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
Mostly VFR conditions. Potential for areas of IFR-MVFR ceilings
late tonight and Monday morning and patchy MVFR vsbys.
Showers and storms expected to diminish except potential
continuing for far n GA. Surface winds becoming light and variable
or light SSW then mainly SW Monday near 10 kts. Storm potential
once again Monday into Monday night.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
Low to Medium confidence on clouds...ceilings and thunderstorm
potential thru Monday.
Medium to High confidence on vsbys and winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  89  70  84 /  40  30  50  50
Atlanta         71  87  71  83 /  50  40  50  40
Blairsville     65  79  63  80 /  50  60  60  40
Cartersville    70  85  69  84 /  50  60  60  30
Columbus        72  90  73  84 /  50  40  50  60
Gainesville     69  85  69  82 /  50  40  60  40
Macon           71  90  73  84 /  20  40  50  60
Rome            70  84  68  85 /  60  60  60  30
Peachtree City  69  87  70  83 /  50  40  50  50
Vidalia         73  90  74  85 /  20  40  50  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AVIATION...BDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
400 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-191000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
400 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon,
lingering into the evening. The chances for thunderstorms will linger
through the overnight hours across the far north as a cold front
approaches. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible.
The primary hazards will be frequent lightning, strong, gusty winds,
small hail and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day. The best chances will be
Monday through Tuesday as a weak cold front settles into the region
and stalls. The primary hazards will be very heavy rainfall as ample
moisture and the stalled cold front interact over the region. Other
threats include strong, gusty winds and frequent lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged to
submit reports of severe weather or flooding through the web by going
to weather.gov/atlanta.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
620 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW NORTH WEST POINT  32.92N  85.17W
06/15/2017                   TROUP              GA   PUBLIC

            AT LEAST 4 TREES DOWN IN THE LAKESIDE TRAILS AREA OF
            SOUTH WEST POINT LAKE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1700869

BAKER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
720 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

GAZ001-002-182345-
Walker GA-Dade GA-
720 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WALKER AND NORTHERN
DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

At 720 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near New England, or near
Trenton...moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Trenton, Chickamauga, Fairview, Stephensville, Chattanooga  Valley,
New England and Cloudland Canyon State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3487 8527 3484 8530 3482 8551 3490 8556
      3498 8533 3498 8527
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 252DEG 23KT 3487 8544

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
939 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

GAZ076-086-190215-
Jefferson GA-Emanuel GA-
939 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND
NORTHEASTERN EMANUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

At 939 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Colemans Lake to Modoc...and moving northeast at
25 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Swainsboro, Wadley, Garfield, Summertown, Three Points, Dellwood,
Modoc, Canoochee, Blundale and Colemans Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3259 8240 3289 8240 3300 8228 3293 8227
      3284 8232 3283 8230 3283 8226 3280 8221
      3281 8215 3266 8208 3265 8206
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 229DEG 20KT 3285 8232 3268 8229

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH