Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
300 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
Moderately moist and unstable airmass in place with regime
characterized by lingering stationary front near the I-20 corridor
and broad upper trough axis to the west as main influencing
features. Some enhanced low level convergence near the boundary has
focused some rounds of showers and storms since this morning, and
based on some upstream regeneration in Alabama, we could see this
persist into the evening along with other development triggered by
other outflows. With decent mid-level lapse rates possibly aiding
updrafts and well saturated columns/hydrometeor loading enhancing
downdrafts, still thinking a few storms could reach strong to severe
criteria for winds or hail and training of cells could pose isolated
flash flooding threat. Pop trends overnight should have coverage
reduce gradually with lack of heating then have lingering isolated
shower/storm potential. Some patchy fog is possible in the morning
where evening rainfall ends up occurring, so will need to watch if
potential increases to warrant mention in grids but have left out
for now.

No clear indicator for where convection will be focused Wednesday
based on hi-res solutions, though one could argue the low/mid level
moisture gradient and possibly more diffuse boundary could be
shifted farther southward into central Georgia. Did not feel
confident other than going general chance pops area-wide given very
similar overall setup to today with any impulse east of the upper
trough axis (though broad) perhaps enhancing precip potential. Could
be same story also to storm threats with a few strong to severe.

Resultant temps should stay close to climo norms with most locations
low to mid 80s for highs and 60s for lows.

Baker

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Models in good general agreement through the long term. High
pressure will build into the CWA Thursday however as the upper
flow becomes zonal, moisture will begin returning to the CWA late
Thursday and continue to spread and increase over the CWA through
the weekend an into early next week with the best chances over
north Georgia, mainly in the afternoons and evenings.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Most sites VFR this afternoon though potential for MVFR or lower
cigs/VSBYs from SHRA/TSRA mainly impacting the northern sites so
far. Could see some late afternoon development for southern sites
but not confident. Should see some scattering/improvement after
23-01z with chance of some early morning MVFR cigs where precip
occurs by this evening. Otherwise not clear signal as to where
SHRA/TSRA occurs tomorrow so have handled with VCSH after 17z and
prob30 after 18z for TSRA. Winds generally some component of west
mainly under 10 kts though some VRB gusts possible with any storm.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low on overall precipitation trend.
Medium on early morning cigs.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  84  64  87 /  20  30  20  10
Atlanta         66  82  66  85 /  20  30  20  20
Blairsville     58  77  56  81 /  20  30  20  10
Cartersville    63  82  62  86 /  20  30  20  20
Columbus        68  85  68  88 /  30  30  20  40
Gainesville     64  81  64  84 /  20  30  20  10
Macon           67  86  66  88 /  30  30  20  30
Rome            63  83  62  86 /  20  30  20  20
Peachtree City  65  83  64  86 /  30  30  20  20
Vidalia         70  87  69  89 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
422 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-310830-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
422 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Isolated thunderstorms may become severe this afternoon and
evening for much of north and central Georgia.

A stalled frontal boundary and afternoon heating will help support
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. The primary threats will
be damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall with large hail
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

A moist and unstable air mass will remain over north and central
Georgia through the period. There will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms each day...a few storms possibly severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
509 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

GAZ069>071-081-302145-
Lamar GA-Monroe GA-Upson GA-Crawford GA-
509 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAMAR...SOUTHWESTERN
MONROE...EASTERN UPSON AND NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 545
PM EDT...

At 509 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Yatesville, or 10
miles east of Thomaston...moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and up to penny sized hail.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Roberta, Yatesville, Culloden, Knoxville, Logtown, Sandy Point,
Horns, Russellville, Musella and Salem.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3274 8417 3283 8425 3296 8417 3294 8382
      3286 8387 3285 8389 3283 8389 3266 8400
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 276DEG 13KT 3288 8415

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
532 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

GAZ059-060-072-073-302200-
Putnam GA-Baldwin GA-Jones GA-Jasper GA-
532 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PUTNAM...
NORTHWESTERN BALDWIN...NORTHERN JONES AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 532 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Adgateville, or near
Monticello...moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and up to penny sized hail.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Eatonton, Gray, Monticello, Ethridge, Bradley, Wayside, Hillsboro,
Resseaus Crossroads, Round Oak, Stanfordville, Adgateville and
Blountsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3310 8335 3300 8349 3313 8382 3314 8379
      3315 8372 3331 8370 3329 8331
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 284DEG 21KT 3325 8368

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...40MPH

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